Gary Watts will burn in hell
Chuck Ponzi October 31st, 2005
A recent review of articles would and should enrage nearly anyone concerned with the housing bubble, housing affordability, and monetary policy.
I will take some time to address tax policy in a later post, however today’s topic comes from a faux-pas of a man in Orange County, Gary Watts. There are so many stupid things said by this foolish little man, it’s difficult to choose which ones to comment on. The realtorspeak is so ingrained in his vocubulary, you would almost expect a picture of him to include a chearleading skirt and pom-poms.
———————————————–
Home prices, Watts says, will rise 15 percent to 18 percent in 2006. Interest rates will stay flat, but even if they rise, they won’t hurt real estate appreciation.
“I feel real confident,” Watts told the audience at the Old Ranch Country Club in his third such gathering this month. “One year from now … we’ll be able to look at each other and say, ‘Wow! Another 15 percent.’
…
“I only forecast off the numbers,” Watts said. “It’s all based on pure economics.”
For 90 minutes Friday, Watts rattled off an array of numbers to show that job growth and a shortage of housing were key factors in the 1990s bust and are key factors in the current housing boom.
Supplies are tight and will only get tighter, Watts maintained, noting that population growth, demographics and immigration are creating three waves of homebuyers.
He argued further that others give too much weight to an “affordability index” indicating that just 11 percent of Orange County households can afford a single-family home here.
That index fails to take into account the huge number of homebuyers who have large incomes or already own homes they can use to finance a new purchase, he said.
Watts suggested that real estate agents use a new sign on clients’ lawns. To make the point, he held aloft a placard reading: “For Sale – Rich People Only.”
“The affordability index doesn’t work,” he said.
———————————————————–
The ignorance, childishness, and audacity of this man is absolutely stunning.
First, interest rates should stay stay flat, but even if they rise, they won’t hurt real estate appreciation? Has this man been hiding under a rock? Maybe he is saying these things for shock value, kind of like Howard Stern or Tom Leykis. But, can you really claim to be an economist and be this unaware of economics?
Second, inventories are tight? Sir, you are an idiot. What does the inventory doubling over the past 2 months mean? Obviously you are thinking that all of those midwest millionaires are waiting even longer so they can pay even more for your crummy house with only a view of the neighbor’s stucco wall. The people selling must all be other millionaires trading up to even larger stucco boxes. You must really think that other rich people are as slow and dimwitted as yourself. If the vast majority of people could have already bought, they would have.
Third, population, demographics, immigration? Please. That huge sucking sound you hear when you wake up on Saturday mornings? That’s the sound of families packing up Uhauls and exiting the state in mass droves, taking their real estate winnings with them. The people replacing them? Well, let’s just say that they are finding opportunities in a new country having travelled a difficult journey from a land southward. Those buying now are not millionaires waiting to gleefully spend their every dime on a “hill view” in Aliso Viejo. They are overleveraged middle-income Americans on 100% financing, or just rolling over the down-payment from another house to a larger mortgage and larger nut after buying an H2. Incomes haven’t increased, and when the credit bubble implodes in 2006, our local banks will have more layoffs than you can shake a stick at.
Fourth, in your meteoric rise from pseudo-economist in the early 90’s until now, I am sure you have forgotten that the vast majority of people that buy houses are just normal people. You speak of huge numbers of people with large incomes, all the while blissfully unaware that we as a country are teetering on the precipice of a vast chasm of recession and deflation that 0% interest rates could not solve. I know you think that 0% interest rates would send prices through the roof… OK, Mr. Pseudo-Economist, tell me about Japan’s 4 1/2 year long deflation WITH 0% RATES! You just don’t get it, do you?
Finally, about the 15% appreciation next year and the sign… well, that’s just pure elitism. He is exactly what people hate about Californians. That smug “I’m smarter than you” attitude when he really is just chugging along on luck-fumes. He reminds me of some of the startup 20-somethings during the dot com stock bubble, except that he’s middle-aged. Well, that he’s an idiot and totally underestimating others’ abilities seems to match.
We could go on forever, but it’s just not worth our time. My prediction is that he will be spouting the party-line “Never been a better time to buy” in a year’s time when we see a 3 to 5% correction. When the foreclosures get some steam and adjustables are hitting their maximum cap in 2007, he’ll just plain fade away, and all we will have to remember him by is a funny little memory of the idiot with the crystal ball screaming Hallalujah! Kinda like that one red-faced guy who ran for the democratic ticket in 2004 screaming Yeehah, on to California!
Like the esteemed Cornell Haynes once said “Two is not a winner, and three nobody remembers.”
Edgard J. Quiroz said…
Dear Mr. Doe,
If you stay in the real estate market, in a active economy area, you will always realize a gain if and only if, you prepare and plan for the normal cycles. Look at the normalize curve of real estate values and you will see that California has realized an average of 8% per year after adjusted for inflation, that is healthy!
Your statements can be accurate, bubble or no bubble when you approach real estate without a definite plan in mind. However, that is true of any investment, the facts are that I have a successful practice built on performance and tract record through at least one severe cycle (market demise of the late 80’s early 90’s) and all of my clients except the ones that where unable to follow their business plan, are wealthy and healthy. And that includes a person whose business is blue collar (Gardner) and has limited income, but a deep understanding of goals and do “whatever it takes” to follow the business plan we outlined for him 7 years ago, and it gives me great pleasure to tell you that he has a networth today of close to $1.7 M in real estate holdings and he can sustain a 5 year negative cycle and worst case scenario if were forced to sell because your best wishes for bubble burs came through, he would walk away with at least $800,000 more than he came to me 7 years ago, and that was $8,000.00 for his closing costs and 2 years sacrifices to establish good credit.
Thank you for addressing all the negativity that most people have, but here again that is why you are not wealthy today.
Best of luck in you journey.
Edgard J. Quiroz qteam@cox.net
Thursday, January 05, 2006 11:09:55 AM
Although I doubt you will return to read my comments, I will post them for others who are considering real estate as an investment vehicle.
Over the long run, real estate is a use asset, but still an asset. Its value is justified by a stream of discounted cash flows based on a rate of return and an allowance for risk. Unfortunately for many newbies, they are starstruck by appreciation, not the fundamentals of the asset class’s cash flows. This is true of any speculative asset class; and can easily be represented based on expected (no matter how disconnected from reality the expectations are) of future cash flows. Right now, rents would need to increase by about 12% to 15% per year for the next 30 years to be in line with calculated home prices. However, I don’t believe that history nor the underlying economic fundamentals justify this kind of valuation. Rents have generally followed the rate of inflation historically.
As far as negativity goes, I’m not really negative towards the area (I have a post titled “Love to Hate California” that shows how much I like it. However, it was a great place 7 years ago and 20 years ago and 50 years ago. It didn’t all of a suddent get great the last 5 years.
I am however, negative towards Mr. Watts’ predictions. I intend to see his theories soundly disproved, and shown for what he is; a charlatan of the highest degree.
You’re right about not being wealthy, although I suspect that has something more to do with me being the age that I am (very early 30’s) and less to do with what financial decisions I made 7 years ago (ala your gardener friend) — I was still in college getting my Bachelor’s degree, and I have completed my MBA in the meantime. Education requires resources, and is most definitely an investment (somewhat speculative) but with a long-term payback. What should really scare people like you is that your economic success depends on people like me to buy those homes. The more you attempt to make more intelligent people look wrong in their decisions, the more likely they are to see the flaws in your logic.
You see, decisions are not made in a vacuum. People my age and in my socioeconomic strata are not looking for the same life rewards that your generation is looking for (you are clearly late boomer as evidenced by your viewpoint and characteristic gentelmanly nature). The ability to pay does not guarantee a sale, nor do all of my Gen-X cohorts have unshakeable faith in asset prices; you need to remember we were front-line for the dot-com implosion. Where you might have lost a few years’ from your retirement portfolio, we lost our jobs.
Unfortunately for humans, we tend to not question the information we have in front of us; we simply take the assumptions fed to us by those selling us something. You, for example, believe that californian real estate prices have enjoyed 8% increase since the beginning of time. You would probably believe that would be the same for Manhattan, NY. Originally, the land was sold for $24 worth of Wampum in 1626; with an 8% return per year, this would be worth $120 Trillion today. This would exceed the total worth of all real estate in the world at this point and also be 15 times the US GDP. The 8% is an anomoly in the last 30 years, that’s a fact.
Robert Schiller has clearly demonstrated that over long periods of time (yes, periods longer than 30 years of time exist), houses appreciate about 1%. That’s not taking into account maintenance costs or quality of the asset(houses built today are of much higher quality than those of 100 years ago). In addition, cost to manufacture has gone down substantially relative to other goods; yes, real estate will likely only match inflation if you’re lucky in the truly long term. It is after all, a use asset. Maybe you’re willing to bet on 15% p.a. inflation?
US household formation rates are dropping from where they were 30 years ago, do you really think that families buying 2, 3, ,or 4 homes is not simply speculation, and represents long-term demand? You should really reconsider that notion.
Best of luck to you as well, I hope that you’re already out of real estate and on to greener pastures (I’m up 15% in my portfolio already this year thanks to some well-placed trades). You should come over to the stock market, the water’s warm and feels great.
And, about my wealth, dont’ worry about me, worry about those you will need to see your multiple houses to!
Thank you Mr. Doe for your kind responses and manner in which you addressed my comments. Please know that I was not born a realtor, realty is my retired profession. I have a PhD in Physics, Master in EE and yes an MBA. And befor I came to this blessed profesion I manage an international business with a 6B bussines volume and my portfolio does include stocks. most of them in high tech.
I tried to make the point that people, regardless of age, education, or economical level can and will get hurt in real estate or the nice and warm waters of the stock market if they don’t engage a true professional, in either field. please recall that I recommend to look at real estate like a business with all its implications and duties to maintain it healthy.
I am not defending Mr. Watts or attacking you or any other one with an opposite view, in fact I applaud both camps to be willing to publicly and openly put their real names on the line for public ridicule or praise, I am only encouraging you and your readers, as I do with my clients to view real estate as a bonafide, very profitable investment. The big difference is that when properly utilized and planned, you also get to live in this piggy bank and enjoy a great life, regardless of your budget.
And yes Mr. Doe my “gardner” friend does not have your education and your student loans to pay but he has a family to support and the obligation to give them the education and tools to improve their lives and reach for a higher level than he was able to reach, and also please know that I too had a bundle of student loans to pay since I had three more degrees to pay for. yet, I have been a home owner since my early 20’s.
In closing, open yourself to the possibility of not focusing on the negative side of any camp or aspect of life or finances. People will always agree or disagree with you. Attract the wealth that is already there for you and everyone else. You are an MBA just use your information to plot a path of success and forget about Mr. Watts and anyone else you have chosen to battle. In the end is all about your own level of success as measured by your own happiness and level of satisfaction you reached.
Be well and prosper.
P.s. I do enjoy reading your blog and I may return to post something but for now I need to tend to my family and clients.
you are a supreme jackass and it is idiots like you that give the good guys a bad name
I am sorry that you have chosen to call me a “jack Ass”. I do not think I deserve that name but so be it.
Be well.
It seems to me that the “laws of supply and demand” often cited as reasons why california real estate prices can never have periods of retracement fail to recognize that in fact we have had periods of retracement in the past.
General Electric was still a great company when the stock plummeted with the rest of the stock market in the early 2000’s as did many other quality companies. Fundamentals do not mean a whole lot when valuations and cycles are at work.
As with any asset class, their is a cyclical nature to real estate prices here and at 3 standard deviations from many historical regression types of measurements there is basically a 1% chance of prices remaining this extended without a retracement or reversion to the mean type of correction.
I sold my home in August of 05′ and signs of the turn are already here to those who are looking in the right direction. Just approach this like any other business, keep the emotions out of it and study the numbers. A good buy spot should develop approx 2008 give or take 6 months.
The world is not ending, but an interesting time for real estate is at hand.
Chris J
Hi Edgard,
I think the troll was calling me a jackass, not you.
It’s interesting that I posted this back in October 2005 and am still getting responses on it.
It must have struck a nerve with others; mostly those who are defiantly optimistic in the face of recent real estate news and predictions by serious economists (not Mr. Watts) that prices will either stagnate or go down slightly in 2006. I think we would be lucky to shave 5% off of the median price.
I hope you weren’t offended by mixup. One of the reasons that I don’t post my real name on the blog is because of rabid trolls like the ones we see here. I have a personal life that I would like to not have disrupted by expressing an unpopular opinion.
Median home price:
$630k*1.15=$724500 (2006)
$724500*1.15=$833175 (2007)
Minimum wage:
$6.75*1.15=$7.76
$7.76*1.15=$8.93
I wish income would keep up!
Gary — while smugly confident — has not only been “accurate” the last 14 years in a row, he has been DEAD ON within one half of one percent in his estimations. I don’t like his smugness, but I’ve made a mint following his advice.
I am an Orange County Realtor and at any given time my Buyer:Seller prospect ratio is 8-9:1.
Watts may carry on like a little twerp, but he’s right - there is no bubble in Orange County, at least anytime soon.
Wish I could go into more details, but I need to make some phone calls to my Buyer prospects!
Buyers outnumber sellers “8-9 to 1″
“…there is no bubble in Orange County”
Great book for you - DOW 36,000?
OC Realtor said:
>Wish I could go into more
>details, but I need to make some
>phone calls to my Buyer
>prospects!
If were an agent with all that OC inventory to churn through, I’d be a busy man too. (Inventory up 45% in the last six months).
RM — “The trend is your friend”
He is exactly what people hate about Californians. That smug “I’m smarter than you” attitude when he really is just chugging along on luck-fumes.
Or the smell of his own farts.
POOT!
SNIFF!
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH…
Very interesting info. Wish I understood it all as I don’t even balance my checkbook (my hubby’s job). I was a realtor and while good at it felt my family was more important that dealing with people who had little or no loyalty to someone willing to give them 110%. My kids appreciate my time far more. Back in secretarial land where the stress is limited and I can actually take a real vacation (not like trying to check voice mail and email from Europe from internet cafes).
Being an Xer, yes, we did lose our jobs. My husband was making great money when the industry slid down, and then completely tanked. How do you even get a call back when Mr. HR has 300 resumes on his desk? Even alphabetically it’s a lotery for an interview. After 3 years without decent employ, my husband finally completely changed directions and is working in a blue collar job that at least doesn’t “suck his soul away.” But will we buy a house? I sincerely doubt it. And I believe in home ownership. I’m just not going to own a home and have no money for living life.
Keep the conversations respectful…It’s great to read!
I know it’s May, 2006, but I do have to very highly commend UpUpandAway R.E. for his incredible retort to THE IDIOT in this whole thing…Mr. John Doe. Although rates have increased, the housing market, especially Southern California presents a pluthera of widespread opportunities in a variety of markets, i.e. jobs, real estate investment, etc., etc. Mr. Doe is most likely a terminal renter who cultivates the dirt he thinks he invented while possessing a high level of bitterness because he has literally no clue what he’s cultivating or talking about and has been caught too many times looking and sounding like, as previously mentioned, THE IDIOT in all of this. Best wishes to you Doe-boy, while Mr. Watts only states the facts, historical included, and we’re all using or homes to invest in so many other of those Southern California opportunites, you’ll be that terminal renter who will have to ask permission to put a potted plant on his patio wall and complain about not enough parking.
Anonymous post of May 17 stating “we’re all using or homes to invest in so many other of those Southern California opportunites” is key. With everyone leveraging their homes for a Rolex, an H2, a boat, etc, it will be interesting when their ARMs adjust. If you can barely afford the minimum what happens when monthly debt service increases by 20%? I can’t wait for the defaults!
John Doe-Doe,
And what are YOUR credentials. You, know you can disagree with some dignity and not be so obnoxious. Have you EVER seen Gary’s record?????? He is in the trenches. The other predictors are not. So chew cud you little brat and mind your OWN business. My guess is that YOU cannot afford a crackerbox!
Looking back on history, there were several cycles were the market remained flat… barely keeping up with inflation. A big determation of a housing bust is interest rates, the local job market, immigration and movement of the baby boomers (retirement etc.)
It IS correct that the there comes a point when everyone says “Stop! It is crazy to pay that much for a house!” then prices will flatten or drop slightly. But the GENERAL direction of the market is up, so those buying the big house in the suburb’s because they need the space and plan to stay there for many years will not be affected by this flattening of prices. The ones hurt will be those in it for quick cash… and only if they purchased at the top of the market. This will affect a more modest amount of people than predicted. The bankruptcy laws are changing soon and even if people become upside-down on their houses, as long as the health of the job market is strong…people will adjust. The sky is not falling, just partly cloudy with a chance of rain.
-Phoenix realestate owner (another predicted bubble-bust)
Hi All,
Wow, I have so much to say. First, I have a question, Where can I research Gary Watts previous and current assessments/comments on the real estate market? I had only heard of him yesterday and happened to run across this blog.
I am a Real Estate Appraiser and Investor and am always interested in hearing others’ viewpoints. I have heard many arguments and taken numerous seminars over the past few years, etc., which talked about the CA and other real estate market and where it is headed.
If I had taken action based specifically on some, then I would’ve missed out on a great deal of appreciation. But, then because I didn’t take action on some advice back before this whole “boom” began, I didn’t capitalize on other opportunities. I believe one of the things that make real estate, especially in CA, such a good opportunity, is that it is not a “perfect market”, and there are many factors, involved, mostly imperfect and transitory. This type of market presents many opportunities to those with the knowledge and willingness to search and capitalize on them.
Anyway, there are many factors which sum up the real estate market and where it MAY (it is not an exact science) be headed.
Population Growth-
Population growth doesn’t add up to qualified home buyers or even a strong robust economy. You need to qualify the “type” of population growth. If half of that 3 million population growth is under 18, with little or no income, and are otherwise not qualified to purchase real estate, that will not necessarily have a direct impact on real estate or the economy. Also, you need to take into account the “net migration” patterns. This might show out-migration of 3.1 million, which would translate into 100,000 loss of population. Right now, I heard we do have a net migration loss in CA (more people moving out than moving in).
On crude/interesting way of this indication is to look up at Uhaul’s website (www.uhaul.com), and find out how much it costs to rent their largest truck from CA to another state. I know a lot of people have moved to AZ, NV and TX in the past few years, so I will use them for examples.
Los Angeles, CA to Austin, TX - $4,469
Austin, TX to Los Angeles, CA - $399
LA to Phoenix - $599
Phoenix to LA - $131
LA to Las Vegas - $554
Las Vegas to LA - $191
What does this tell you? Well, they have to pay someone (employee, driver, etc.) to return a truck to CA, and it is so expensive since there are many more trucks leaving then coming. But, when you are driving one of their trucks here, you are also doing them a favor by returning one of their trucks, therefore, it is less expensive. They only make money if the locations have trucks to rent, so they need to have them returned, eventually.
Affordability –
With the price of real estate locally outpacing income, affordability lowers until there is a point it reverses (either incomes rise, interest rates decrease, or prices decrease ). In past cycles, interest rates have generally fallen, while prices started to fall, which helped “cushion” any real estate decline (example – early 1990’s). Today, we have upward movement in interest rates with no indication that they will return to historical low levels anytime soon. This may cause a problem with affordability. Also, the money supply is tightening. The federal financial regulators have been discussing for sometime now, directives regarding limiting the number of option arm and piggyback loans there are available. It used to be that a Borrower could qualify based on the low introductory interest rate. I believe that has already changed. This all results in less money available and less people able to qualify to buy homes. Remember, typically, it isn’t the Buyer that pays for the house, it is mostly the BANK, with a small contribution by the Buyer. Lenders run most of the money supply show!
We also are already seen a rise in foreclosures. This will just add to the inventory of houses for sale, which will dilute the market, causing more downward pressure on home prices. And when Sellers are competing with the banks to sell a house, who do you think can take a bigger loss? Banks are regulated and have to have a certain amount of reserves and performing assets, or they get shutdown (Remember the S&L crisis!). Therefore, they have a greater incentive to sell their non-performing asset inventory, then typical mom and pop Seller. Inventories of available houses for sale, have been artificially low in the past recent years. To me, it is artificial, because it can change rapidly, if everyone all of sudden decided to sell their house.
Anyway, for those who can afford their monthly payment, no matter where the price of their house goes, and they plan on living there for 5 years or more and don’t plan on keep pulling money out on cash-out refi’s every year, have steady secure income, and those who don’t owe much or any money on their house, or are not in a negative cashflow position on their rental property/ies, and have enough reserves, and are not concerned with cashing out anytime soon, etc., those people will probably be fine. I personally, have sold my CA rental property, bought elsewhere in the USA, and plan on buying more in states other than CA, until I can cherry pick those great deals, that are on their way, right here in CA. They are coming, and those times present some better opportunities then the recent real estate market we have just had. I had heard once, that some people make a lot more money in a down market than in an up market, whether it be real estate or stocks. I assume these are the people that are referred to as “the smart money”, who aren’t afraid to go against the norm. Afterall, if you want to be above-average you need to act differently than the crowd.
With that all said, there really is no other place to live like CA and I don’t plan on moving anytime soon, just moving my real estate money, for the moment.
Okay, that was alot longer than I planned. Sorry, if it bores anyone.
OK! Everyone wants to be right. Bottom line you have to make six figures in the O.C. to buy a 700 sq. ft. condo with any sort of conventional financing. The people buying right now are sheep and sheep get slaughtered. I should know I live in one. Lucky I bought in 2002. If you own in the O.C., ask yourself one question. Would you pay double or even more for your house now. Lets face it. You make less than $120,000 per yr. in the O.C. and your under the poverty line. It’s only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it. The ones who get in at the end are always the suckers.
It’s now late September 2006. The August numbers from DataQuick are in. OC and San Diego counties have both see YoY declines. Here in Ventura, we are looking at a mere 1% increase. Overall, California’s YoY appreciation rate in August was 3.5%. That includes the latest bubble counties, like San Luis Obispo and Tulare (10% YoY increase / Avg Home Price = $257K). So, where’s Mr. Gary Watts now with is 15% YoY appreciation forecast? He might try a little salt and pepper with that crow.
test
The real estate market topped
in Southern California at the
beginning of June 2006.
I have been a broker for 30 years
and watched the market crash of
1989. It was truly amazing
and this generation cannot appreciate that houses are like
commodities and stocks.
My analysis consists of taking
the listings from varied areas.
I use 3+2+2 houses from Lakewood,
Cypress, Cerritos, Corona and Long Beach. I take the asking prices
(that will turn into sales months down the road). The public sees
closed sales. But, my method shows
what will happen about 4 months out.
I am showing a 5.5% decrease in the price of houses listed now
since the first of June, 2006. And, the drop is gathering steam.
Look at the inventory in Corona,
CA. 2835 houses for sale! Roughly
11 months of inventory. It’s gone
mad.
The major factor in 1989 was not
the lost jobs. It was people rushing in to buy, that normally would have waited a few years.
That sucks future buyers out of
the market for years to come.
That’s the whole problem. This time
everyone has bought, that was going to buy.
It’s deja vu 1989 exactly again.
For the exact same reason, only worse. Interest only loans.
The influx into California was
no different in 1989 than it is now.
Too many people have bought now.
Those people can no longer buy
in the coming years.
Banks failed in the crash of 1989,
but now days, the banks sell off most of their paper.
When the market bottomed in 1995
there was plenty of time to buy.
Really not much happened for a couple years after.
So, when this market bottoms,
DON’T RUSH IN.
WAIT
YOU WILL HAVE TIME.
In 1995, I had the hardest time of my life selling cheap houses. No one wanted them.
When the public learns real estate is plunging, they will be too scared to buy.
The tulip bulb craze has ended.
Whatever you do, do not try to pick the bottom. You will have lots of time.
Be patient.
Good luck
I should mention Corona, Ca
is in Riverside County. I use it
because many in Orange County
can drive to work from there.
I could not use Corona in my
calculations
this time, because real estate is dropping so fast there, I can no longer determine the prices
in this city. So, I substituted
Huntington Beach (without leased land.)
But, most areas are about the same
5.5% drop in listing prices from
the first week of June of 2006.
I expect the public will become aware of the housing downfall around December 2006 and we will
see a fast sharp decline in Jan.
and Feb. during the winter.
Remember, when a person uses a short sale from the bank,
the amount deleted from the mortgage becomes income
to the seller in that year.
So, if you get $100,000 knocked off your mortgage to be able to sell your home, you will pay income
taxes on that amount.
Many people didn’t know this in 1989 to 1995.
I expect the fall to be rapid beginning in December 2006 and
houses will fall until at least
Feb. 2008.
This fall is just beginning.
Hi John (Doe) this is your old friend Edgard,
It is amazing the momentum your blog gained since I posted last. It is also amazing the pick-and-choose people do to derive and mold information to their favorite side. I suppose that if mathematicians and scientist in general do common folks are certainly welcome to do it.
Here are my two cents:
Business is great, there are less realtors every day, low commission realtors are dissapearing, and my investors are beginning to come out and we are helping plan their next purchases.
My clients that bought under “very creative” loan packages are well and ready to ride the wave for up to seven years and some of them 10 years so all is well in my camp.
So it goes to my original statements that if you PLAN and treat your home/real estate investment as a business plan, with all the thought and consideration(s) it deserves, it will always reward you.
Be well John and be proud of what you started.
You are a freaking moron, and I am certain you don’t own a home either.
Actually we do (my wife and I). I post my real name, you post under anonymous, who is the moron?
Edgard,
Once again, I think he was referring to me.
BTW, I changed my pseudonym to Chuck Ponzi (to avoid being harrassed by some of the people that stumble on my site).
Chuck Ponzi.
I know nothing about real estate, however I know Gary Watts very well. Gary is one of the nicest, honest, humane, persons I have known in my 60 years! My wifes brother is a morgage broker in Mission Viejo (she does processing for him)He has great respect for Gary Watts and he has been in real estate one way or another for 25 years. John Doe would benefit greatly by learning to have an opinion with out his obvious inmature hatred. When John Doe becomes an adult he will hopefully learn to simply dissagree.
[...] Gary Watts’ mommy doesn’t read this blog, because it’s clear that he’s going to hell. (I believe that lying to large numbers of people and taking advantage of them for personal gain [...]
I am not affiliated with Mr. Watts but his business is a matter of public record and his production and/or income maybe traced. I am sure that you have some superpower to make the statement that :”Gary Watts’ mommy does not read his blog” and an even higher connection to make the ascertions that he is going to hell and that he takes advantage of people…. Wow you are good!!
Edgard,
The above was a pingback from a later posting I made. You should take a look at that statement in its entirety, otherwise it is taken out of context. Automatic blogging software pingbaks sometimes take the quotes out of context… but it still applies. Gary Watts is either a liar or completely incompetent. You decide what you think. I’m actually taking a stance that he’s not an idiot, but that he knows that smoke, mirrors, and happy talk makes more money than the reality.
Mr Watts makes a living as a paid shill for the RE/Mortgage/Title industry. This industry pays Mr Watts to perform seminars and speeches which provide the industry employees with the “logical arguments” needed to convince prospective buyers (sheeple) that either “now’s a good time to buy” or that that 2+2=5 if needed - think David Lereah.
http://www.impactre.com/seminars.html
ck out Mac Mackenzie top agt in O.C. he has been right all along. Why not talk with him. Gary sells less than 20 homes per year Mack sells 135+. His comments in the o.c. register have been dead on.. for over 18 months…
He is a tought s.o.b. but man is this guy dead on…
No kidding this guy is a machine. I meet him over a year ago Jan of 06, told me get my cash out now! Freaked me out, said Gary, dept of R.E. and local agents were totally wrong.. He said these people did not tell the truth about price, market conditions or just did not know what was really going on, said they were gonna kill the market by being lemings. lol
Mac said it could do only one thing drop like a stone. Cost us 175k. by using the wrong agent. Killed me to think i could have taken the advise of a top performer. Nope i went with a local agent and Garys advice etc…
Mac knows his market.
Tough, no this guy is an animal, takes no crap and gets the job done!!! Seems the media should talk to him, maybe he can fix it?
He did help us, told us in June 07 the next big hit would be before Oct 07. Now look…
Gary Watts is biased because he is converting an apartment complex in Costa Mesa in the 1900 block of Maple Ave. He is planning on selling the 15 units in the high 400,000’s. Good luck in today’s market! He has to keep ringing the “real estate is great” bell for his own financial well being.
[...] Gary Watts will Burn in Hell (October 2005) Gary Watts will Still Burn in Hell (April 2006) Gary Watts Pulls His Head Out Long Enough to Stick It Back In (July 2006) Gary Watts And The Incredible Logic Shrinking Machine (August 2006) Gary Watts… Ignorant Optimist or Deluded Sociopath? (October 2006) Gary Watts… Where’s the Inversion? (October 2006) Watts, Old Scoundrel, At it Again (February 2007) Who’s The Fanatic Now? (June 2007) [...]