What a difference 6 Months Make!
Chuck Ponzi June 14th, 2006
Sometimes, it’s hard to see where we are going until we look back at our own deluded selves and wonder… What were we thinking?
Just such a great opportunity comes to us from a San Diego Realtor, Peter Toner. Courtesy of his January 5, 2006 entry titled “2005 A Year for the Real Estate Record!” we read the following from 6 short months ago…
Home inventory levels are expected to rise slightly in 2006 but will remain low by historic standards. This will fuel continued price appreciation in the California market. Homes were on the market for an average of 3.3 months in 2005.
Uh….
Let’s reflect on that for a moment. We know from Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking blogger OCRenter that SD inventory is THE HIGHEST EVER IN HISTORY, having surpassed that critical inventory peak from 1996 of 19,250 on April 22nd 2006. The inventory for SD county has been rising steadily since then at a breakneck pace, and we are set to break the population adjusted record perhaps within the week that is currently estimated at 22,174 homes for sale. Hardly “low by historical standards”.
Nice to know you’ve been paying attention. What does that mean? I’ll let you decide.
You are on fire today! Blogs away!
Can you use your amazing data comparison skills to put down the myth that “Rents are going up!!!” I am so tired of hearing this when I get daily messages in my inbox to the contrary. I know there have to be some kind of population or income or housing starts numbers that just kill this one, I just don’t know where to find them. (I guess it would make all of us loser renters feel better!)
Well rents aren’t exactly down either….I mean come on…go to Pasadena…you’ll pay close to $2G’s a month for a stupid “luxury” latte smelling condo (i.e. studio…1 bedrooms are more).
Landlords have now begun to get greedy…after all…someone has to pay for their stupidity in buying over-valued investments.
That said, renting is STILL a better way to go right now.
For right now, I need to agree with nozferatu. The short term shows a slight uptick in rents, IMHO. The medium term of 2-4 years, I would suggest that we have flat to slight declines in rentals once we have a cleansing of the local job market (each area is different, so I can’t profess to know too much on this subject). However, long-term, rents will rise.
Noz may be overstating thigs just a tad, but he’s right about the direction. Pasadena rentals are not quite 2K for a studio. Past experience tells me these are closer to 1400, but were 1350 last year. It’s a move up, but it’s not going to break the bank like a 3K mortgage going to 5K to buy the same place on an adjusting I/O ARM.
Hey John Doe:
Yes you are correct..I should state the “desirable” areas of Pasadena.
South Pas and areas near the Paseo Mall…check out the Paseo Luxury condos…my wife and I wanted to rent out there about 1.5 years ago…BACK THEN they were renting around 1850K for a studio!!! Another place is called the Trio off of Colorado and Madison…they’re leasing a 2 bedroom for $2400/month!!! at around 1100 sqft.
We’ve also seen 2 bedrooms for around $1600/m but I wouldn’t send my enemy there!
Rentals are hit/miss item for the renters…you could be looking for 6 months and not find a decent place…you may find one in a day just walking to the market.
I heard Santa Monica is even worse…as the owner of Overvalued Properties (sadly he was taken off the air by who knows who), his famous line was “people become dumb when they get close to a body of water.”
How true.
Regarding rents; here is good tool to use, it’s rentslicer.com. They started in LA and have expanded to San Diego, San Francisco among other cities. You can chart rents by neighborhood and by the the type of dwelling, 1bd, 2bd, condo, house etc. The trends and graphs are very useful for tracking rents which are up slightly in LA.
Excellent post! Thanks!
So, where’s gold going to? At this rate it will take all about 1 or 2 more weeks to give up ALL of the gains of the last 18 months.
I’ve fallen and I can’t get up!!
Nozferatu - nobody pays those prices, especially at Paseo. Most of the places are corporate rented at a discount, and if you negotiate, you can get a 1 year lease with 2 months of free rent. And nearly everyone bolts after the first year.
Yes, asking prices are high. But you can *easily* negotiate rents down. I’ve lived in Pasadena for over 14 years and I can tell you from experience, negotiate, and spend some time kicking the tires. You’ll be amazed what you can find.
Nozferatu - nobody pays those prices, especially at Paseo. Most of the places are corporate rented at a discount, and if you negotiate, you can get a 1 year lease with 2 months of free rent. And nearly everyone bolts after the first year.
Yes, asking prices are high. But you can *easily* negotiate rents down. I’ve lived in Pasadena for over 14 years and I can tell you from experience, negotiate, and spend some time kicking the tires. You’ll be amazed what you can find.
I should also add - the average rent for a 2 bedroom (once you negotiate price) in Pasadena is $1350/month, in the areas much more desirable than Paseo (very loud, expensive parking, no parking for guests). Check out the areas south of Cordova. You can find beautiful tree-lined streets, easier street parking, close walks to Trader Joe’s and beautiful California Blvd, for as little as $1200/month and nicer ones for $1450/month. These places are NOT posted online. You need to drive around and look at the signs put on peoples yards. The online prices are easily $300/month more expensive, and for not good places either. BTW - Westside Rentals is too expensive. Seriously, drive around. It is NOT that expensive. The place has to support Caltech graduate students, Culinary arts students, and Art Center students. These people are intelligent and POOR. Great combo for keeping rents depressed
I like the rentslicer, it’s extra fun for demographics, but doesn’t cover any of Orange County.
Hey Anonymous Regarding Pasadena rentals:
Thanks for your advice.
It’s been very frustrating regarding rentals over there (and just about anywhere actually in the Pasadena/Glendale/Burbank area).
You’re absolutely correct about many of those places being corporate rentals. Pasadena seems to love allowing developers build these luxury condos for corporate people…completely disregarding everying one else.
I know exactly where you are talking about in the Cordova area. I used to work for Caltech and that area is nice. However, I’m not sure if it’s cheap - or at least as cheap as you may suggest.
Granted, you are right in assuming the people who rent there are students, etc…but remember, Caltech costs an arm and leg to go to as does the culinary school. Alot of the people do go to these institutions generally speak (GENERALLY..hehe) have alot of money to burn.
I hope you’re right about the negotiating stuff…I’d like to live in that area…I’m in Glendale and I’ getting sick of that place. A nice change would be good for us.
As far as purchasing goes - I know we didn’t talk about that but I digress - FORGET IT. It’s such a overpriced frak-fest it’s not even funny.
rentslicer.com ROCKS!
IMO apartment rents are rising faster now than they have been in the 2001-2005 period, and this makes sense given where we are in the real estate cycle. I believe they will continue to rise as housing crashes. House and condo rental prices might slide a bit; rentslicer.com allows you to query by type and find out!
Funny. I remember what it’s like scrounging around looking for a place to rent.
nozferatu -
Well, I grant you that area is a bit more expensive than the area north of the freeway. It always has been and always will be. HOWEVER, it is not accurate to look at the online listings and assume that their recent upward trajectory is any way indicative of most of the rental rates people are actually getting.
BTW - I used to go to Caltech as a student. And I currently live in that area now, and have recently been helping a friend of mine shop for apartments - so my knowledge about the market is about 2 months old, but I don’t think it’s changed much. She just signed her lease in May for a beautiful little craftsman bungalow in a series of several - you probably have seen it, it’s off of El Molino.
Anyway, Caltech students, by and large, are NOT rich. Yes, tuition costs $$, but most (over 50%) of the undergrad population are there on grants. Tuition does not cover anywhere close the expenses that students incur - Caltech has tons of money from external sources. The graduate students are also not paying to be there, and they are the majority of the renters off-campus. They are paid a stipend, and it’s compared often to living on about $22K per year (cheap teacher salary). I can’t speak recently for the Art Center students, but I believe they are in a similar boat.
Anyway, rich people are not taking over Pasadena. It’s just wishful thinking on the city government’s part.
I’ll say, that was poetic!