Mission Viejo, CA – A thunderous clap was heard as the continental plates shifted early Friday. Some locals feared it was “the big one”, but instead we found out some hours later it was actually Satan, personally congratualting Gary “In the Bag” Watts. At first, the rumor spread that hell had actually frozen over and that Gary had admitted he was wrong, but that optimism soon faded when it was realized that Mr “In the Bag” was in actuality nonrepentant about his predictions for the local area, even after reducing his forecast by some 30% from 15% to 11-12%.
Watt’s is well known for his “on the fly” predictions that rarely last long. “His end-of-year predictions are almost always spot on,” quoted a local realtor who relies on Mr. Watt’s advice and has purchased several homes since the beginning of the year, “Hey, 11% on $3M of real estate ain’t bad. I just wish others were buying like I am so I could sell some homes to make my mortgage payments.”
Watt’s was quoted as saying:
It’s been an absolute miserable six months in terms of real estate. I think we probably are not going to see 15 (percent), but I think 11 or 12 (percent) is still realistic.
A local news agency said
Watts, who had forecast that local home prices would go up 15 percent this year, now believes that annual appreciation could be as low as 8 or 9 percent if high oil prices and Mideast tensions continue to batter the economy.
Latest news from locals is that tension over Mideast conflicts didn’t bother them the last 3 years, but Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah is really putting a damper on whether they are attending open houses and offering their firstborn children and indentured servitude for their remaining offspring just to drink from the Orange County real estate well. Local Hugh McDuff was quoted
I never really thought much about international politics until 9/11, which caused me to buy more and more houses over the ensuing 4 years. Strangely enough, with recent developments and gas for my Hummer going up, I’m suddenly bummed by Lebanon. Can’t put my finger on it, but I just don’t have the urge to buy any more homes. Maybe I’ll feel more like it in the fall.
We will keep you informed as further developments to this story unfold.
Baghdad Bob was also on hand to provide his commentary:
“There are no Tanks in Baghdad. There is no bubble in SoCal, never was, never will be.”
Gary then whispered something in his ear, and Bob then said.
“Except for the 1990′s, which allah willing, will be wiped from the record books”
John Doe, your reporter in the field
Beautifully said John Doe! Thanks for the link!
Gary Watts says:
“I think we probably are not going to see 15 (percent), but I think 11 or 12 (percent) is still realistic.”
Then he says:
“It’s been an absolute miserable six months in terms of real estate”
This is living proof that many people in this industry (especially those from The OC) have become spoiled and accustom to double digit gains. It’s simply outrageous that Mr. Watts (a former appliance salesman in Laguna Hills) can make such an ignorant statement!
I hope these people get exactly what they deserve for leading the naïve sheepeople into the abyss!
One more point regarding Gary (in the bag) Watts, aka Carnival Barker.
Right now the year over year appreciation rate for Orange County is 5.8% and it’s been steadily declining since the first of the year. So it doesn’t look very good for 11-12% either.
These SOB’s need to be regulated by the SEC.
Anon Said:
“t’s simply outrageous that Mr. Watts (a former appliance salesman in Laguna Hills) can make such an ignorant statement!”
Why is it outrageous? These people couldn’t repeat their good fortune if they tried…alot of luck made these aholes rich from nothing…so having alot of money doesn’t make them smarter at all.
My apologies to who ever I stole this from but, ‘How do you tell when Watts (realtors) is lying? His mouth is moving’.
Most, not all, of my real estate and mortgage friends that have been making personal purchases and loans are now in terrible financial positions. Selling homes on short sales and trying to salvage their creative loans with some of the worst terms. These are the people giving advice to buyers and borrowers. Some have been more conservative and have actually put money away. The others will unfortunately never see the gains they once had on paper.
IT MIGHT BE SLOW RIGHT NOW, BUT SO WHAT. WE ALL STILL NEED A PLACE TO LIVE AND ORANGE COUNTY IS PREMIUM AS FAR AS I AM CONCERNED. SO I THINK SUPPLY AND DEMAND WILL KEEP US UP WITH INFLATION. AT 600,000 WITH 3% APPRECIATION ITS BETTER THAN WORKING A SECOND JOB. WHATS ALL THE PANIC ABOUT. IT WILL STABALIZE AND WHEN INCOMES COME UP AND RENTS KEEP GOING UP THE BUYERS WILL COME AGAIN. BUT THIS TIME THERE WILL BE EVEN LESS OPPORTUNITY TO BUY IN ORANGE COUNTY. BUT HEY, WHAT THE HECK YOUR HOUSES IN SMOGGY RIVERSIDE ARE ALL GOING FOR 600,000 NOW AND THOSE HOME OWNERS HAVE TO PAY 3.30 A GALLON TO DRIVE INTO ORANGE COUNTY TO WORK. BESIDES THAT I NEVER MADE A DECISION ON PREDICTIONS. I MADE THEM ON WHAT I COULD AFFORD TO DO.
ONE OTHER THING. LIKE WITH STOCKS IN REAL ESTATE YOU WILL NEVER LOOSE MONEY IF YOU DONT SELL LOW. THE MONEY ISNT LOST IT HAS JUST MOVED. WHEN WE HAD THE DOT COM BUST WHICH WAS FAR MORE RISKY THAN REAL ESTATE EVER WILL BE THE STOCK MONEY MOVED TO REAL ESTATE. IF ITS NOT IN REAL ESTATE FOR NOW DONT SHOOT YOURSELF IN THE FOOT AND SELL LOW. JUST MOVE SOME OF YOUR EQUITY TO A MORE LIQUID POSITION SUCH AS MUTUAL FUNDS WITH THE CHANCE OF MAKING 12-15% ON THAT INVESTMENT. OH LETS SEE, DO YOU MEAN BORROW CHEAP MORTGAGE MONEY AND MOVE IT TO A HIGHER YIELDING INVESTMENT. YES I DO. IT WONT AFFECT YOUR HOMES VALUE. SO LETS SEE, IF I CAN BORROW AT 6% AND MAKE 12% I COULD PAY THAT DEBT SERVICE BACK AND STILL MAKE 6% WITHOUT ANY OUT OF POCKET COST. NOT TO MENTION THE BASE AMOUNT IN MUTUAL FUNDS IS STILL GROWING WITH COMPOUND INTEREST. HERE IS A FACT. IF YOU WOULD HAVE PUT 250,000 IN AN UNNAMED MUTUAL FUND PRESUMABLY BORROWED FROM HOME EQUITY THIRTY YEARS AGO AND RECEIVED INTEREST PAYMENTS THAT EQUALLED ABOUT 1900 A MONTH TO PAY BACK ON THAT 250,000 DOLLARS YOU WOULD HAVE DRAWN ABOUT 600,000 PLUS TO MAKE THOSE PAYMENTS WITH INTEREST. THE PARTICULAR MUTAL FUND COMPANY IM TALKING ABOUT HAS A 30 YEAR YIELD OF 15%. HOW MUCH MONEY WOULD BE IN YOUR ACCOUNT TODAY FROM 1977 UNTIL TODAY 2007. TRY OVER 14,000,000.00. SO EVERYONE QUIT YOUR CRYING LOOK TO SEE WHERE THE MONEY IS MOVING AND MAKE SOME FOR YOURSELF. IVE HEARD THE DOOM AND GLOOM OVER REALESATE MANY TIMES AND EVERYONE WHO HAS BET AGAINST IT HAS LOST.
DONT PANIC! WHEN I BOUGHT MY FIRST HOME IN ORANGE COUNTY I PAID 76,000 AND I WAS EARNING 5.60 AN HOUR. EVEYONE SAID I WAS CRAZY TO PAY 750.000 A MONTH FOR A HOUSE PAYMENT. BELIEVE ME WHEN I SAY THE AVERAGE TRACK HOUSE WILL SELL FOR ONE MILLION DOLLARS WITHIN 12 YEARS. BUT IF YOU ARE FEARFUL, HEDGE ALL OF YOUR PAPER WEALTH WITH 10-30 PERCENT IN GOLD. IT HAS AN INVERSE RELATIONSHIP WITH YOUR PAPER WEALTH.ITS GREAT INSURANCE. AND FOR YOU GUYS WHO LIKE A LOT OF DOOM AND GLOOM, GO TO http://WWW.MONEX.COM YOU WILL LEARN SOMETHING.WHEN YOU SEE THIS SITE REMEMBER THIS IS THE GREATEST PLACE IN THE WORLD TO LIVE AND THERE ARE WAYS TO PROTECT YOUR ASSETS. YOU JUST HAVE TO BE ON TOP OF YOUR GAME.
[...] Watts will Burn in Hell (October 2005) Gary Watts will Still Burn in Hell (April 2006) Gary Watts Pulls His Head Out Long Enough to Stick It Back In (July 2006) Gary Watts And The Incredible Logic Shrinking Machine (August 2006) Gary Watts… [...]
It would be interesting to know how much money Watts was paid in the last 5 years for his “Forecasts” and speaking appearances. Do you have that information?