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	<title>Comments on: Did you hear the credit bubble pop last week?</title>
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	<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html</link>
	<description>Southern California is Experiencing a Real Estate Bubble like never before</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Fri, 04 Feb 2011 01:16:46 -0700</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Larry Nusbaum</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-834</link>
		<dc:creator>Larry Nusbaum</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Sep 2006 03:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-834</guid>
		<description>Read: http://millionairenowbook.blogspot.com/2006/09/call-to-arms.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Read: <a href="http://millionairenowbook.blogspot.com/2006/09/call-to-arms.html" rel="nofollow">http://millionairenowbook.blog.....-arms.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-835</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Sep 2006 03:49:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>hey dostoevsky, don&#039;t you mean crash of 2007?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>hey dostoevsky, don&#8217;t you mean crash of 2007?</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-836</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Sep 2006 03:46:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-836</guid>
		<description>wow that was a lot of effort.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>wow that was a lot of effort.</p>
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		<title>By: koolaid drinker</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-837</link>
		<dc:creator>koolaid drinker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Sep 2006 03:41:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-837</guid>
		<description>Hatemonger at ABN News, that was pretty well written.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;That you would actually take the time to write something so awful says volumes about you.  I hope you&#039;re very proud.  &lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Would you please post your name and address so that we can all keep our children away from you.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hatemonger at ABN News, that was pretty well written.</p>
<p>That you would actually take the time to write something so awful says volumes about you.  I hope you&#8217;re very proud.  </p>
<p>Would you please post your name and address so that we can all keep our children away from you.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-838</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Sep 2006 01:17:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-838</guid>
		<description>29 September 2006&lt;BR/&gt; &lt;BR/&gt;Federal officials confirm that thousands of bodies have been discovered in 38 states and are expected to be found in all states.  Similar to the killing fields of Vietnam or mass graves discovered in Iraq.  &quot;Many of the bodies have been decapitated, some hung and many have been shot multiple times&quot;, said Agent Earl Carbus of the FDA.  &quot;It is beyond description; Many have been beaten to a pulp, I&#039;ve never seen anything like this.  The stench is overwhelming.  Such carnage just cannot happen in the United States&quot; - Special Agent Patty Smith of the FBI declared.  The bodies are for the most part whole, unravaged by animals.  &quot;Coyotes and mountain lions are conspicuous by their absence.  Normally the wild carnivores would have cleaned the bones by now&quot; - declared Lt. Marvin Saugus of the St. Paul Police Department. &lt;BR/&gt; &lt;BR/&gt;Reminiscient of Hitler&#039;s death camps in WWII, there are almost too many bodies to count.  But unlike the Jews at Auschwitz, these bodies are not gaunt, but bloated.  &quot;Obviously they were very well fed and did not die of starvation.  The bodies were all very well dressed and bore very expensive jewelry, which evidently the killers didn&#039;t want.  The mass graves also contained many expensive automobiles; Lexus, Infinity, Porsche, etc., said a state Coroner&#039;s assistant.  &lt;BR/&gt; &lt;BR/&gt;Like all mass murders, there is a common thread.  All the dead have business cards forced into their teeth, identifying them as either real estate appraisers, realtors, mortgage brokers, loan agents, mortgage bankers and hundreds of employees of Mortgage Servicers like Ameriquest and Fairbanks Capital.  The FBI has preliminarily  identified the motive as mortgage fraud.  As so many innocent mortgage borrowers have lost their homes and investors have gone broke recently upon finding out that there was no housing boom, it flows that the real estate industry is the object of retaliation. &lt;BR/&gt; &lt;BR/&gt;&quot;But these were human beings, with families and hopes and dreams&quot;  cried one woman upon discovering her mortgage &quot;professional&quot; husband had been tortured, his genitals stuffed in his mouth, and shot.  &quot;Not really&quot;  declared a passery-by at one gravesight.  &quot;They&#039;re just pollution in another form now&quot;.  Such comments have become common since the housing market crash of 2006.  Once homeowners and investors discovered that the entire housing boom was the result of massive fraud, sensitivites have been lost to more forward positions against the real estate industry.  It is no secret that some industry insiders had been warning the FBI, AGs, and the Fed that hell was coming, to no avail.  Apparently, civil justice has been supplanted by vigilante justice.  When all 2 million residents of San Diego, California were questioned by authorities, not one suspect was arrested. &lt;BR/&gt; &lt;BR/&gt;&quot;It appears that a nationwide professional cleansing is taking place on a massive scale, Special Agent Timothy Carston, SEC, said&quot;.  Authorities are powerless to control carnage on such a massive scale.  All efforts are currently being focused on decontaminating the gravesites and searching for new ones, as missing person calls multiply. &lt;BR/&gt; &lt;BR/&gt;Sgt. Richards of the Pomona Sherriff&#039;s Department said &quot;Sure, these people ruined our lives, put the nation into a deep recession at a time of war and we are all on rations because of their misdeeds, but Jesus Christ, this is over the line&quot;. &lt;BR/&gt; &lt;BR/&gt;The authorities are classifying the crime as a misdemeanor.&lt;BR/&gt; &lt;BR/&gt; &lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;-ABN News Network</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>29 September 2006</p>
<p>Federal officials confirm that thousands of bodies have been discovered in 38 states and are expected to be found in all states.  Similar to the killing fields of Vietnam or mass graves discovered in Iraq.  &#8220;Many of the bodies have been decapitated, some hung and many have been shot multiple times&#8221;, said Agent Earl Carbus of the FDA.  &#8220;It is beyond description; Many have been beaten to a pulp, I&#8217;ve never seen anything like this.  The stench is overwhelming.  Such carnage just cannot happen in the United States&#8221; &#8211; Special Agent Patty Smith of the FBI declared.  The bodies are for the most part whole, unravaged by animals.  &#8220;Coyotes and mountain lions are conspicuous by their absence.  Normally the wild carnivores would have cleaned the bones by now&#8221; &#8211; declared Lt. Marvin Saugus of the St. Paul Police Department. </p>
<p>Reminiscient of Hitler&#8217;s death camps in WWII, there are almost too many bodies to count.  But unlike the Jews at Auschwitz, these bodies are not gaunt, but bloated.  &#8220;Obviously they were very well fed and did not die of starvation.  The bodies were all very well dressed and bore very expensive jewelry, which evidently the killers didn&#8217;t want.  The mass graves also contained many expensive automobiles; Lexus, Infinity, Porsche, etc., said a state Coroner&#8217;s assistant.  </p>
<p>Like all mass murders, there is a common thread.  All the dead have business cards forced into their teeth, identifying them as either real estate appraisers, realtors, mortgage brokers, loan agents, mortgage bankers and hundreds of employees of Mortgage Servicers like Ameriquest and Fairbanks Capital.  The FBI has preliminarily  identified the motive as mortgage fraud.  As so many innocent mortgage borrowers have lost their homes and investors have gone broke recently upon finding out that there was no housing boom, it flows that the real estate industry is the object of retaliation. </p>
<p>&#8220;But these were human beings, with families and hopes and dreams&#8221;  cried one woman upon discovering her mortgage &#8220;professional&#8221; husband had been tortured, his genitals stuffed in his mouth, and shot.  &#8220;Not really&#8221;  declared a passery-by at one gravesight.  &#8220;They&#8217;re just pollution in another form now&#8221;.  Such comments have become common since the housing market crash of 2006.  Once homeowners and investors discovered that the entire housing boom was the result of massive fraud, sensitivites have been lost to more forward positions against the real estate industry.  It is no secret that some industry insiders had been warning the FBI, AGs, and the Fed that hell was coming, to no avail.  Apparently, civil justice has been supplanted by vigilante justice.  When all 2 million residents of San Diego, California were questioned by authorities, not one suspect was arrested. </p>
<p>&#8220;It appears that a nationwide professional cleansing is taking place on a massive scale, Special Agent Timothy Carston, SEC, said&#8221;.  Authorities are powerless to control carnage on such a massive scale.  All efforts are currently being focused on decontaminating the gravesites and searching for new ones, as missing person calls multiply. </p>
<p>Sgt. Richards of the Pomona Sherriff&#8217;s Department said &#8220;Sure, these people ruined our lives, put the nation into a deep recession at a time of war and we are all on rations because of their misdeeds, but Jesus Christ, this is over the line&#8221;. </p>
<p>The authorities are classifying the crime as a misdemeanor.</p>
<p>-ABN News Network</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-839</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Sep 2006 01:13:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-839</guid>
		<description>This whole boom and bust are the result of massive fraud, just like in the late 80&#039;s.  Once again, the real estate industry has bilked the public big time with falsified applications, liar loans, inflated appraisals and lenders with their hands over their eyes.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;As far as I&#039;m concerned, the whole world would be better off without the real estate and appraisal &quot;Professionals&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This whole boom and bust are the result of massive fraud, just like in the late 80&#8242;s.  Once again, the real estate industry has bilked the public big time with falsified applications, liar loans, inflated appraisals and lenders with their hands over their eyes.</p>
<p>As far as I&#8217;m concerned, the whole world would be better off without the real estate and appraisal &#8220;Professionals&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-840</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Sep 2006 00:23:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-840</guid>
		<description>Jason, you make a lot of good points and it&#039;s hard to tell what the final number is going to be.  &lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Prices are going to come down some and I&#039;m happy to agree to disagree with intelligent, reasonable people like yourself.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;I just post the abrasive stuff to piss off some of these jerks who think any real estate agent is evil reincarnate.  I&#039;m sure they also hate lawyers, CEO&#039;s and the President.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;I&#039;m not afraid of prices falling.  It would be great for business if more people could afford to buy.  I&#039;ll lose some paper profits but it will come back.  I&#039;m going to be around for a few more years.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jason, you make a lot of good points and it&#8217;s hard to tell what the final number is going to be.  </p>
<p>Prices are going to come down some and I&#8217;m happy to agree to disagree with intelligent, reasonable people like yourself.</p>
<p>I just post the abrasive stuff to piss off some of these jerks who think any real estate agent is evil reincarnate.  I&#8217;m sure they also hate lawyers, CEO&#8217;s and the President.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not afraid of prices falling.  It would be great for business if more people could afford to buy.  I&#8217;ll lose some paper profits but it will come back.  I&#8217;m going to be around for a few more years.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-841</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Sep 2006 20:32:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-841</guid>
		<description>I talked with a smug homeowner yesterday.  I told him prices are going to fall 30% at least if not more especially in his area (Corona, CA) and his response &quot;Ah, no...that will NEVER happen&quot;.  It&#039;s amazing the rose colored glasses these homeowners are wearing...most of them 100% believe that the gains they&#039;ve made are permanent.  The stupidity and naivity of these people is incomprehensible.  Most of these people are going to get burned so bad they will be reeling in shock for years to come!  &lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;When homeowners think this way, that their 300% overvalued piece of crap home is worth what it is, then the situation is just hopeless I tell ya!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I talked with a smug homeowner yesterday.  I told him prices are going to fall 30% at least if not more especially in his area (Corona, CA) and his response &#8220;Ah, no&#8230;that will NEVER happen&#8221;.  It&#8217;s amazing the rose colored glasses these homeowners are wearing&#8230;most of them 100% believe that the gains they&#8217;ve made are permanent.  The stupidity and naivity of these people is incomprehensible.  Most of these people are going to get burned so bad they will be reeling in shock for years to come!  </p>
<p>When homeowners think this way, that their 300% overvalued piece of crap home is worth what it is, then the situation is just hopeless I tell ya!</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-842</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Sep 2006 18:07:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-842</guid>
		<description>Foreclosures are already up 160% in California, enough said!!!  I believe that is a new record.  I don&#039;t know about 5 or 10%, price reductions are already more than that on some listings I&#039;m seeing and it&#039;s only the beginning.  Just go to the OC Fliptrack blog and you&#039;ll see many properties selling at a NET LOSS!  That hints at an extremely serious problem brewing!&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;This downturn is setting new records every day!  When will people believe that if the run up can be something that has never occured in history, then the downturn will also be something so bad that has never before occured in history ;)&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Unfortunately it will take the US Economy and the US dollar into the dumps with it which is why I&#039;m investing abroad and in International funds.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Foreclosures are already up 160% in California, enough said!!!  I believe that is a new record.  I don&#8217;t know about 5 or 10%, price reductions are already more than that on some listings I&#8217;m seeing and it&#8217;s only the beginning.  Just go to the OC Fliptrack blog and you&#8217;ll see many properties selling at a NET LOSS!  That hints at an extremely serious problem brewing!</p>
<p>This downturn is setting new records every day!  When will people believe that if the run up can be something that has never occured in history, then the downturn will also be something so bad that has never before occured in history <img src='http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>Unfortunately it will take the US Economy and the US dollar into the dumps with it which is why I&#8217;m investing abroad and in International funds.</p>
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		<title>By: Jason</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-843</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Sep 2006 15:33:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-843</guid>
		<description>Hello last two anons!&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Would you mind if i disagree in a pleasant way? I have no problem with real estate agents like yourselves. Like every other profession, there are good ones and bad ones, well-meaning ones and deceiptful ones. The ones I&#039;ve used have all been very pleasant and delightful people.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;I happen to be of the school that thinks we are in for a bigger than five to ten percent drop. I think we&#039;re looking at a situation like Japan, where after their real estate bubble the average price of a home went down 50 percent and stayed down 50 percent for 20 years. This is not a typical real estate cycle. This was a speculative mania, akin to the dotcom bust. (Sorry to compare real estate to tech stocks -- i know this drives you guys NUTS. I know, I know, &quot;you can&#039;t live in a tech stock.&quot;)  But as you know (or if you don&#039;t, google &quot;real estate&quot; and &quot;yale professor robert shiller&quot;) this is the biggest speculative housing bubble in the history of the United States. And bubbles never end well. They simply don&#039;t. It&#039;s a fact. And to think otherwise is simply wishful thinking. Remember, MANY people, especially stock market professionals, were convinced it was a &quot;new economy&quot; and that the boost to productivity unleashed by the Internet had led to a &quot;paradigm shift.&quot; and so it goes with real estate today. but with both, the old adage applies: those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. &lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;I happen to own my own home (okay, it&#039;s a condo) and I believe that owning real estate for the long term over renting is a no-brainer. And I can make my payments so I can ride out any big drop, and even as the amount i paid for my place was doubling and even tripling, I knew it wouldn&#039;t last because I know that money doesn&#039;t grow on trees and that there&#039;s no such thing as a free lunch. but a lot of people forgot that, or maybe they grew up sheltered and never learned it. maybe they&#039;re young and they missed the drop in real esate prices after the run-up in the late 80&#039;s, which was NOWHERE NEAR as big a run-up as this one. (i know, there was the aerospace bust and the earthquake, but we&#039;ve got more specualtion and the R.E. job bust to come.) &lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;if you look at historical charts, home prices have separated from rent costs, wage growth, and historical appreciation as never before. I guess you guys think we&#039;ve entered a new world and that&#039;s just the way it is, but it&#039;s like Morgan Freeman says in Shawshank Redemption: &quot;I&#039;d like to tell you that bobby got away from those boys, but there ain&#039;t no fairy tales in prison.&quot;&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Well, there ain&#039;t no fairy tales in real estate either.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;I trust that both of you have done very well the past few years. Save that money for the tough times to come. And why are the tough times coming? Well,  i don&#039;t think it&#039;s quite as simple as real estate agent anon #1 makes it sound.  he says that people will simply take their homes off the market and wait. but what about carrying costs? for anyone who bought in the past few years, they are huge, and they are much higher than what you can get by renting your place out. people can only wait so long, especially if they know their ARM is re-setting. and even if you are right and it&#039;s only a 5 to 10 percent drop, they won&#039;t be able to re-finance. in fact, many people think they&#039;re going to be able to re-finance their way out of their ARM pain and they&#039;re going to be in for a rude awakening. and even that ten percent drop, once it comes through in the YOY figures, it&#039;s going to make a lot of people want to sell because they&#039;ll fear it&#039;ll drop more, and then you get the snowball that drove the Nasdaq down from over 5000 to about 1000. (80 percent drop!)&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Look, probably nothing I can say can convince you guys, and truth is, I sure hope you&#039;re right. I&#039;d love to have my condo really be worth $650K instead of the $350K i&#039;m guessing i&#039;d be able to get for it in two years, but again, &quot;There ain&#039;t no fairy tales in real estate.&quot;&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;By the way, I DO know that most americans have a fixed rate or no mortgage at all, i think something like 30 to 40 percent of homes are owned free and clear. but as you must know as a real estate professional: prices are set at the margin. and the fact that so many own free and clear is going to actually be a problem once prices hit that 5 to 10 percent drop that even you guys are saying is coming. all those old folks who have been marveling at how the house they paid 50 grand for is now worth a million are going to finally feel it&#039;s time to get out and downsize and lock in that gain when they see the price drop down from a million to 900 grand. &lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;for all the truth that many people on this blog are just bitter or regretful that they didn&#039;t buy five years ago, i think the naysayer real estate agents that post here are just trying desperately to convince themselves that everything is going to be okay. it isn&#039;t. this is going to be bad, possibly very bad, and unfortunately a lot of those young couple you&#039;ve sold homes to recently with an I/O neg am are going to be wiped out.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;but you know what? no one can really predict the future. I could very well be wrong, and hey, if i am wrong, I WIN! &lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;P.S. :  real estate agent #2, you say that everyone on this blog is a nasty name-caller, but your fellow real estate agent began his post by saying that everyone who disagrees with him is a &quot;loser.&quot; i hope my tone in this post was civil and in the spirit of a friendly disagreement. i look forward to your response.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hello last two anons!</p>
<p>Would you mind if i disagree in a pleasant way? I have no problem with real estate agents like yourselves. Like every other profession, there are good ones and bad ones, well-meaning ones and deceiptful ones. The ones I&#8217;ve used have all been very pleasant and delightful people.</p>
<p>I happen to be of the school that thinks we are in for a bigger than five to ten percent drop. I think we&#8217;re looking at a situation like Japan, where after their real estate bubble the average price of a home went down 50 percent and stayed down 50 percent for 20 years. This is not a typical real estate cycle. This was a speculative mania, akin to the dotcom bust. (Sorry to compare real estate to tech stocks &#8212; i know this drives you guys NUTS. I know, I know, &#8220;you can&#8217;t live in a tech stock.&#8221;)  But as you know (or if you don&#8217;t, google &#8220;real estate&#8221; and &#8220;yale professor robert shiller&#8221;) this is the biggest speculative housing bubble in the history of the United States. And bubbles never end well. They simply don&#8217;t. It&#8217;s a fact. And to think otherwise is simply wishful thinking. Remember, MANY people, especially stock market professionals, were convinced it was a &#8220;new economy&#8221; and that the boost to productivity unleashed by the Internet had led to a &#8220;paradigm shift.&#8221; and so it goes with real estate today. but with both, the old adage applies: those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. </p>
<p>I happen to own my own home (okay, it&#8217;s a condo) and I believe that owning real estate for the long term over renting is a no-brainer. And I can make my payments so I can ride out any big drop, and even as the amount i paid for my place was doubling and even tripling, I knew it wouldn&#8217;t last because I know that money doesn&#8217;t grow on trees and that there&#8217;s no such thing as a free lunch. but a lot of people forgot that, or maybe they grew up sheltered and never learned it. maybe they&#8217;re young and they missed the drop in real esate prices after the run-up in the late 80&#8242;s, which was NOWHERE NEAR as big a run-up as this one. (i know, there was the aerospace bust and the earthquake, but we&#8217;ve got more specualtion and the R.E. job bust to come.) </p>
<p>if you look at historical charts, home prices have separated from rent costs, wage growth, and historical appreciation as never before. I guess you guys think we&#8217;ve entered a new world and that&#8217;s just the way it is, but it&#8217;s like Morgan Freeman says in Shawshank Redemption: &#8220;I&#8217;d like to tell you that bobby got away from those boys, but there ain&#8217;t no fairy tales in prison.&#8221;</p>
<p>Well, there ain&#8217;t no fairy tales in real estate either.</p>
<p>I trust that both of you have done very well the past few years. Save that money for the tough times to come. And why are the tough times coming? Well,  i don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s quite as simple as real estate agent anon #1 makes it sound.  he says that people will simply take their homes off the market and wait. but what about carrying costs? for anyone who bought in the past few years, they are huge, and they are much higher than what you can get by renting your place out. people can only wait so long, especially if they know their ARM is re-setting. and even if you are right and it&#8217;s only a 5 to 10 percent drop, they won&#8217;t be able to re-finance. in fact, many people think they&#8217;re going to be able to re-finance their way out of their ARM pain and they&#8217;re going to be in for a rude awakening. and even that ten percent drop, once it comes through in the YOY figures, it&#8217;s going to make a lot of people want to sell because they&#8217;ll fear it&#8217;ll drop more, and then you get the snowball that drove the Nasdaq down from over 5000 to about 1000. (80 percent drop!)</p>
<p>Look, probably nothing I can say can convince you guys, and truth is, I sure hope you&#8217;re right. I&#8217;d love to have my condo really be worth $650K instead of the $350K i&#8217;m guessing i&#8217;d be able to get for it in two years, but again, &#8220;There ain&#8217;t no fairy tales in real estate.&#8221;</p>
<p>By the way, I DO know that most americans have a fixed rate or no mortgage at all, i think something like 30 to 40 percent of homes are owned free and clear. but as you must know as a real estate professional: prices are set at the margin. and the fact that so many own free and clear is going to actually be a problem once prices hit that 5 to 10 percent drop that even you guys are saying is coming. all those old folks who have been marveling at how the house they paid 50 grand for is now worth a million are going to finally feel it&#8217;s time to get out and downsize and lock in that gain when they see the price drop down from a million to 900 grand. </p>
<p>for all the truth that many people on this blog are just bitter or regretful that they didn&#8217;t buy five years ago, i think the naysayer real estate agents that post here are just trying desperately to convince themselves that everything is going to be okay. it isn&#8217;t. this is going to be bad, possibly very bad, and unfortunately a lot of those young couple you&#8217;ve sold homes to recently with an I/O neg am are going to be wiped out.</p>
<p>but you know what? no one can really predict the future. I could very well be wrong, and hey, if i am wrong, I WIN! </p>
<p>P.S. :  real estate agent #2, you say that everyone on this blog is a nasty name-caller, but your fellow real estate agent began his post by saying that everyone who disagrees with him is a &#8220;loser.&#8221; i hope my tone in this post was civil and in the spirit of a friendly disagreement. i look forward to your response.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-844</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Sep 2006 14:34:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-844</guid>
		<description>Cover your ears anonymous!!!  You are about to get called every name in he book by these naysayers.  You have the temerity to come into their church and spout this blasphemy and you will be held accountable.  You must be an evil realtor because they are the only people on the planet who do not believe in the impending meltdown of the real estate market.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;There may be a few coherent comments made but most of them will include name calling.  The shrill whine of non-homeowners will soon be ringing on this blog.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cover your ears anonymous!!!  You are about to get called every name in he book by these naysayers.  You have the temerity to come into their church and spout this blasphemy and you will be held accountable.  You must be an evil realtor because they are the only people on the planet who do not believe in the impending meltdown of the real estate market.</p>
<p>There may be a few coherent comments made but most of them will include name calling.  The shrill whine of non-homeowners will soon be ringing on this blog.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-845</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Sep 2006 06:44:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-845</guid>
		<description>gosh, when will you losers realize that prices are NOT coming down more than 5 or 10% at the very most!!  Inventory is increasing only because people are trying to cash in and make a quick buck, but they will just take their homes off the market if they can&#039;t get their price and then inventories will fall again and the appreciation will start back up, although at a more normal level.  This is a soft landing folks.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;You guys are underestimating the amount of non-real estate related wealth that people have.  Do you know that most Americans have fixed mortgages or no mortgage at all, yes, they own their homes outright.  The number of people with exotic loans is a small minority, they will indeed cause a small disturbance in the market but nothing significant to warrant a real estate meltdown like the media predicts!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>gosh, when will you losers realize that prices are NOT coming down more than 5 or 10% at the very most!!  Inventory is increasing only because people are trying to cash in and make a quick buck, but they will just take their homes off the market if they can&#8217;t get their price and then inventories will fall again and the appreciation will start back up, although at a more normal level.  This is a soft landing folks.</p>
<p>You guys are underestimating the amount of non-real estate related wealth that people have.  Do you know that most Americans have fixed mortgages or no mortgage at all, yes, they own their homes outright.  The number of people with exotic loans is a small minority, they will indeed cause a small disturbance in the market but nothing significant to warrant a real estate meltdown like the media predicts!</p>
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		<title>By: vfsv</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-846</link>
		<dc:creator>vfsv</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Sep 2006 06:43:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-846</guid>
		<description>Silicon Valley house prices are headed in the same direction.  &lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Santa Clara Co prices are -$47K the last four weeks: http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id125.html&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;See www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com for more complete coverage.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Silicon Valley house prices are headed in the same direction.  </p>
<p>Santa Clara Co prices are -$47K the last four weeks: <a href="http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id125.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id125.html</a></p>
<p>See <a href="http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com</a> for more complete coverage.</p>
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		<title>By: Empty Spaces Inc.</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-847</link>
		<dc:creator>Empty Spaces Inc.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Sep 2006 07:27:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-847</guid>
		<description>I totally agree with everything you&#039;ve said.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;I fully expect San Diego to drop 40-45%. I think the dollar will drop 20-40% too.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;I&#039;ve been investing in gold, canadian income funds, foreign mining stocks, oil wells, and recently AUD as a hedge. I sold my real estate in CA last year and started buying in Utah and Indiana. So far everything&#039;s been great. But the best is yet to come!&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Check out my blog for more articles on why the dollar sucks!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I totally agree with everything you&#8217;ve said.</p>
<p>I fully expect San Diego to drop 40-45%. I think the dollar will drop 20-40% too.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve been investing in gold, canadian income funds, foreign mining stocks, oil wells, and recently AUD as a hedge. I sold my real estate in CA last year and started buying in Utah and Indiana. So far everything&#8217;s been great. But the best is yet to come!</p>
<p>Check out my blog for more articles on why the dollar sucks!</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-848</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Sep 2006 02:55:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-848</guid>
		<description>here is why you should buy now:&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;http://www.bubbleinfo.com/process/Redirect?url=http%3A%2F%2Feasylink.playstream.com%2Fkat1221%2Fwhybuyahousenow.wvx</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>here is why you should buy now:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bubbleinfo.com/process/Redirect?url=http%3A%2F%2Feasylink.playstream.com%2Fkat1221%2Fwhybuyahousenow.wvx" rel="nofollow">http://www.bubbleinfo.com/proc.....usenow.wvx</a></p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-849</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Sep 2006 03:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-849</guid>
		<description>Housing Boom Bust -- I disagree. You wrote: &lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;If it wasn&#039;t for &#039;stated income&#039; loans, no one in Cali would be able to buy a house. &lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;I think there are many people who documented their $50,000 a year income before the bank gave them a $950,000 no money down option ARM.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Housing Boom Bust &#8212; I disagree. You wrote: </p>
<p>If it wasn&#8217;t for &#8216;stated income&#8217; loans, no one in Cali would be able to buy a house. </p>
<p>I think there are many people who documented their $50,000 a year income before the bank gave them a $950,000 no money down option ARM.</p>
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		<title>By: Housing Boom Gone Bust</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-850</link>
		<dc:creator>Housing Boom Gone Bust</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Sep 2006 22:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-850</guid>
		<description>If it wasn&#039;t for &#039;stated income&#039; loans, no one in Cali would be able to buy a house.  That should tell us something.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If it wasn&#8217;t for &#8216;stated income&#8217; loans, no one in Cali would be able to buy a house.  That should tell us something.</p>
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		<title>By: bubble_watcher</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-851</link>
		<dc:creator>bubble_watcher</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Sep 2006 15:17:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-851</guid>
		<description>&lt;I&gt;Debt Monetization?&lt;/I&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Debt monetization is what has been going on for the past five years across the globe (i.e. assets and wages are deflating relative to goods and services). However, rather than argue on the subject, I think that is better to just let the charts speak for themselves.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Various gold to X ratio charts:&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;A HREF=&quot;http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/welcome_to_the_page_about_gold.htm&quot; REL=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[Link]&lt;/A&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Gold as priced in various world currencies:&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;A HREF=&quot;http://www.goldmoney.com/en/chartindex.php&quot; REL=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;[Link]&lt;/A&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Many think that there is a bubble in gold (and commodities in general) and that this &#039;bubble&#039; can crash any day now. However, I tend to think that the real bubble is in the current central-bank managed global fiat currency system, instead.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Debt Monetization?</i></p>
<p>Debt monetization is what has been going on for the past five years across the globe (i.e. assets and wages are deflating relative to goods and services). However, rather than argue on the subject, I think that is better to just let the charts speak for themselves.</p>
<p>Various gold to X ratio charts:</p>
<p><a HREF="http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/welcome_to_the_page_about_gold.htm" REL="nofollow">[Link]</a></p>
<p>Gold as priced in various world currencies:</p>
<p><a HREF="http://www.goldmoney.com/en/chartindex.php" REL="nofollow">[Link]</a></p>
<p>Many think that there is a bubble in gold (and commodities in general) and that this &#8216;bubble&#8217; can crash any day now. However, I tend to think that the real bubble is in the current central-bank managed global fiat currency system, instead.</p>
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		<title>By: jpillow24</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-852</link>
		<dc:creator>jpillow24</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Sep 2006 08:31:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-852</guid>
		<description>yah and that&#039;s really sad..</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>yah and that&#8217;s really sad..</p>
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		<title>By: bearmaster</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-853</link>
		<dc:creator>bearmaster</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Sep 2006 14:51:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-853</guid>
		<description>I have a feeling that the credit bubble is now popping in a big way in my neighborhood (extreme north end of 90278).  Very recently I&#039;ve noticed a few alien realtor signs on fairly new construction, one selling in December 2004 and one selling early this year. The realtor signs in front of these bubbleminiums are from realtors way outside the area, not the standard local realtors.  People can find themselves in over their heads almost overnight.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;I&#039;ve posted the real estate $$$ transaction charts for August:&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;A HREF=&quot;http://sbbeachbubble.blogspot.com/&quot; REL=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;South Bay Beaches Bubble Blog&lt;/A&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Cheers!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have a feeling that the credit bubble is now popping in a big way in my neighborhood (extreme north end of 90278).  Very recently I&#8217;ve noticed a few alien realtor signs on fairly new construction, one selling in December 2004 and one selling early this year. The realtor signs in front of these bubbleminiums are from realtors way outside the area, not the standard local realtors.  People can find themselves in over their heads almost overnight.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve posted the real estate $$$ transaction charts for August:</p>
<p><a HREF="http://sbbeachbubble.blogspot.com/" REL="nofollow">South Bay Beaches Bubble Blog</a></p>
<p>Cheers!</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-854</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 02 Sep 2006 18:05:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-854</guid>
		<description>this guy recommends MONTHLY ARMs!!!  Is this straight out deception or what?&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7520924906689834604</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>this guy recommends MONTHLY ARMs!!!  Is this straight out deception or what?</p>
<p><a href="http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7520924906689834604" rel="nofollow">http://video.google.com/videop.....6689834604</a></p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-855</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Sep 2006 20:17:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-855</guid>
		<description>&quot;...in the end we believe that underlying market fundamentals will prevail,&quot; Mr. Lereah added.&quot;&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Is that just too funny or what!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;&#8230;in the end we believe that underlying market fundamentals will prevail,&#8221; Mr. Lereah added.&#8221;</p>
<p>Is that just too funny or what!</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-856</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Sep 2006 16:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-856</guid>
		<description>i&#039;m sure mortgage brokers knew how to use photoshop quite well.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>i&#8217;m sure mortgage brokers knew how to use photoshop quite well.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-857</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Sep 2006 04:55:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-857</guid>
		<description>&quot;and has zero emissions except for purified water&quot;&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;and we could even collect the water and sell it to Sparkletts! &lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;it&#039;s like the world of tomorrow!&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;somebody call Disney!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;and has zero emissions except for purified water&#8221;</p>
<p>and we could even collect the water and sell it to Sparkletts! </p>
<p>it&#8217;s like the world of tomorrow!</p>
<p>somebody call Disney!</p>
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		<title>By: John Doe</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html/comment-page-1#comment-858</link>
		<dc:creator>John Doe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Aug 2006 22:44:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2006/08/did-you-hear-credit-bubble-pop-last.html#comment-858</guid>
		<description>Nanosolar is exactly who I was referring too... although they don&#039;t have exclusive rights to the technology, just the use of printing-manufacturing techniques that are unique to them.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Daystar (DSTI) also produces CIGS (Copper, Indium, Gallium, diSelenide) photovoltaic cells on metallic foils.    I don&#039;t currently own them because I would rather be buying Nanosolar...who coincidentally is buildign a 1.6GW/year plant in NoCal.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;To me, this is about as close to free energy as you can get.  In the past, storing that energy has been difficult, one which I believe can be overcome with personal hydrogen storage tanks.  I don&#039;t like the idea of batteries because of the 2 big ones; environmental impact and on-demand power storage.  I also hate losing so much power in cars from having 600lbs of batteries to hold power and a limited driving range.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Ideally, we could have solar collectors on our cars that convert to hydrogen using an on-board conversion device and they could be self-powering.  We would then see people competing to park on the top of the parking garage as opposed to in the shade.  With the old flat-panel silicon wafers, it was out of the question, but with flexible CIGS, it would would be possible.  I&#039;m also hoping that the safety of using hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles does not present a roadblock.  All-in-all, yes, I am a nut for clean fuel.  Anything to get the ME off of our backs and maintaining our current lifestyle would be great.&lt;BR/&gt;&lt;BR/&gt;Who wouldn&#039;t want a 600 horsepower 20 ft SUV that never needs gas, doesn&#039;t require oil drilling, and has zero emissions except for purified water?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nanosolar is exactly who I was referring too&#8230; although they don&#8217;t have exclusive rights to the technology, just the use of printing-manufacturing techniques that are unique to them.</p>
<p>Daystar (DSTI) also produces CIGS (Copper, Indium, Gallium, diSelenide) photovoltaic cells on metallic foils.    I don&#8217;t currently own them because I would rather be buying Nanosolar&#8230;who coincidentally is buildign a 1.6GW/year plant in NoCal.</p>
<p>To me, this is about as close to free energy as you can get.  In the past, storing that energy has been difficult, one which I believe can be overcome with personal hydrogen storage tanks.  I don&#8217;t like the idea of batteries because of the 2 big ones; environmental impact and on-demand power storage.  I also hate losing so much power in cars from having 600lbs of batteries to hold power and a limited driving range.</p>
<p>Ideally, we could have solar collectors on our cars that convert to hydrogen using an on-board conversion device and they could be self-powering.  We would then see people competing to park on the top of the parking garage as opposed to in the shade.  With the old flat-panel silicon wafers, it was out of the question, but with flexible CIGS, it would would be possible.  I&#8217;m also hoping that the safety of using hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles does not present a roadblock.  All-in-all, yes, I am a nut for clean fuel.  Anything to get the ME off of our backs and maintaining our current lifestyle would be great.</p>
<p>Who wouldn&#8217;t want a 600 horsepower 20 ft SUV that never needs gas, doesn&#8217;t require oil drilling, and has zero emissions except for purified water?</p>
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