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…yet some clueless idiots are predicting soft landing? Where are these “experts” living, on Mars? Give me a break! It’s so obvious that the party is OVER and all the recklessness and mind numbing stupidity of the past several years is finally going to catch up to us. The next few years is going to be very UGLY!

I couldn’t agree more. Go out and buy your house. That way we can cull out the rest of the idiots and get on with business at hand. Kind of an economic-Darwinism. So go out today and jump on your “opportunity” of a lifetime and suck it up with the most insane toxic loan you can find. Your going to do it anyway, regardless of what logic and common sense tells you, so get on with it. Hey, being that we’re at the top of the market, you can always say you went out on top! Good for you!

“Bidding wars still in Manhattan”? He must be talking about Manhattan, Kansas, because I know a ton of people in NYC and all they keep talking about is how the real estate market there is DEAD. People are taking $200,000 of their asking price and their properties are still not selling.

Anyone who thinks real estate is only going up from here, please buy today. Please.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/weeklystandard/
20060822/cm_weeklystandard/homesafe

http://news.yahoo.com/s/weekly.....d/homesafe

What strong wage growth? “I’ve been told” is the worse part of your statememnt. Do some research, my friend. There are a lot of sites currently on the internet that will break down for you that over the last 10 years wage growth hasn’t kept pace with inflation. Take out real estate, and you have nothing. We’ve been riding a liquidity bubble that just happened to channel it’s way through housing. The boom of the last 5 years? Never really happened. A 30% correction? If that’s all it is, we’ll be lucky.

Oh, if you can’t afford a house, you can’t afford it. Your choices are move or rent, period!

in japan they had a real estate bubble in the 80′s. it burst and prices fell 50 percent and stayed down 50 percent FOR TWENTY YEARS. in early 90′s, los angeles real estate fell 50 percent. yes there was terrible aerospace job loss then but this bubble is much bigger than that one. plus, massive job loss for housing-related sectors is coming (agents, brokers, construction workers, etc.). more than half the jobs created in california this decade have been real estate related. if you can’t afford the current prices you are lucky because you will avoid the mistake of buying now that some people who can afford it will make.

If prices go from $600k to $400k, that is still way to expensive for most of us yet it represents a 33% decline which is by historical standards is a HUGE crash! I’ve been told such a crash cannot occur with the current strong wage growth. True?

Another clueless realtor or industry insider clinging desperately to false hope. I too am an industry insider, an owner of a brokerage for 5 years, in the biz for 15. But unlike you, I am realistic and truthful. Your argument is lame. You probably picked this one up in one of your spin indoctrinations. I’ll use your example of 600K @6.% against the 540K @ 9% so I can educate any unexpecting “sheople” stumbling on to this site and buying into your pointless crap. For my money, I’d take the 540 @ 9%. Why? According to your numbers the descrepency is $600 more per month for the cheaper house at the higher rate. But what you fail to explain is that a rate can be changed at a future date by refinancing. You can never alter the purchase price once you buy. So I save $60,000 by buying the cheaper house, pay the higher payment short term, and refi doiwn the line at a lower rate and sit pretty. But what if it takes some time for rates to come down? At $600 a month more per month, that would be $7,200 more per year in payments on the cheaper house. If it took 5 years for rates to come back down (it never takes that long) you would still be way ahead purchasing the cheaper house. Take your $7,200 more per year and multiply it by 5 and you get a $36,000 more made in payments over that period of time. But you have to remember that you gained $60,000 on the reduction in purchase price on the cheaper home. $60,000 betterin price – $36,000 more in payments = $24, 000 to the positive for the cheaper house at the higher rate. You’re still way ahead on the cheaper house at the higher rate. Your argument sucks!

Now, everyone knows that rates are not going to hit the rate you claim, it’s just another RE scare tactic. In fact, they’ve stabilized and even dropped over the last few weeks. I called out on another site that a pause by the Fed would actually hurt realtors who’ve been using the “buy now before the rates go up” crap. But I think I’ve just successfully exposed that nonsense just doesn’t work on paper.

You’re going to have to do better than that, I’m afraid.

I watched one 3 bd, 2 1/2 bath townhouse that was up for rent in Jan at $3200, then in March it was down to $3000, and in May down to $2800. Of course, during this whole time the sucker-owner was carrying it along. Didn’t catch the finale, but now I see several other 3 bd 2 1/2 bath houses going for $2200.

The townhouse owner probably couldn’t afford the negative carry costs and tried to get it in the rent. Too bad his/her foolishness cost them months of rental income.

Just because some desperate sucker still owes $650k on the house and is asking that price, doesn’t mean the house is worth a penny over $500k. Certainly NOT if no one is buying it.

When reality hits and the first negative-equity homeowner accepts defeat, the whole house of cards comes down. And it is likely coming very soon…

I have said it before, and I will say it again for those who are not economically inclined…
If rental housing stock exceeds the rental demand, prices fall, that’s a simple economics principle. There are some excellent examples of that; look at small urban centers in places like the Southern Tier of New York, or upstate for that matter, as well as many places in Pennsylvania. Real rents have been falling in some places for 30 or more years because of excessive supply. Nominal rents are down for the past 15 years due to major pullouts in several cities.

Hoping rents will rise because someone paid a lot for something is like buying a stock at an inflated price and hoping company earnings increase because you bought it for so much.

Good luck with rising rents…as I see it, we got plenty of rental stock to go around, and with rents a little over 2X the national average… they might have some room to move, but not much. Renters have a much easier packing up their stuff and moving out of state if expenses get to be too much.

In the Bay Area, rents have already started to come down with so many units available. This week the ads show at least a 10% price decline since May. (Example: 5 Bd 3 Bath in Alameda–$2600, in May they would have been asking closer to $3000)

More empty unsold homes will soon be up for rent as well, likely lowering rents even further. If the suckers can’t sell their money pit, they can’t move out and rent, now can they? I don’t see rents increasing from here. Overcapacity is your pallbearer, RealtWHORE!!!

Hey Realtwhore, you should adjust your ambitions to being a rental manager. At least then you’ll get some (not much) income.

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!

So I don’t see any validity in any of your arguments so stop spreading false information. Not buying now is only going to make this more expensive, buy at $600k 6.5% payment=$3800 or $540k 9% payment=$4400 your choice

And if you buy now at least you don’t have to deal with rising rents. Buying a home is always a wise decision for the long term.

And that ZERO doesn’t just refer to won (in their case, lost) debates, it also refers to the number of their closings for the 2nd half of 2006!!!

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!

(good luck finding us, realtWHORE!!!)

(reconnect the following 4 lines for the link.)
http://www.pimco.com/
LeftNav/Regional+Market+Commentary/
Global+Credit+Perspectives/2006/
Kiesel_For_Sale_06+2005.htm

PIMCO VP Mark Kiesel sold and is renting. Smart guy!

Why are they here? THEY ARE SCARED SHITLESS!!!!

As for the OC couple with the $165k annual income, they could easily spend $4500+/mo using a 30-yr fixed. Or else they’ll be forced to live on the edge with a non-trad. Deductions become debatable due to the AMT. Typical realtor/mortgage brokers won’t alert them to these issues. If they bite, they aren’t smart. Of course, with realt-whore friends like the guy above (notice how he says “trust me”), they won’t get good advice and maybe will jump in (and suffer the consequences). However, prices can’t keep going up with only those options available to a modest upper income family like that. With home prices flat and a non-trad, there’s no equity to gain—why not rent?

If the OC couple is truly smart and educated, they’ll rent. These naysayers truly reveal their motives and idiocy.

btw, I’m anonymous because when the shit hits the fan, I don’t need some psycho ex-realtwhore trying to track ME down (1 of 55 working CA adults is a real estate agent—that will soon be a lot of pissed-off unethical losers). The internet is great for that sort of thing. Rather, I plan to direct the newly homeless to their REAL enemies.

A dual income family can easily pull in $180+k or more. To give an example… Friend of mine, he makes $90k, wife makes $75k..both educated professionals combined income $165k and looking to buy here in Irvine, around $550k townhome.

The waning of demand is just a pause, as people realize that prices are staying flat or appreciating marginally they will resume their purchase plans.

When you desperately want to believe something that just isn’t so, you tend to put great stock in the person who says that it is.

There is no reference to his character, just his a question to his competency to issue forecasts for real estate.