Optimism Still in the Crapper
Chuck Ponzi January 29th, 2007
Back in July of last year, I highlighted an online poll that showed optimism about the Southern California housing climate was abysmal.
Yahoo has their own poll (as unscientific as it is) that paints a similar picture:
Which begs the question… is the negativity something new and predictive, or is it simply noise caused by the economic headwind?
Studies have shown that large groups of novices with limited information have much better predicting power than even experts with excellent information.
A reality of the negativity? Posting from Curbed L.A. 1/29/07:
A slowing market, another sales to rental switch-a-roo. Originally planned as a sales development, Villa Malibu has gone rental. Developed by the Carlyle Group, the gated luxury 68-unit community on Cavalleri Road opened for leasing earlier this month. The first luxury rental development in Malibu, rents range from $3,850 to $9,650 (for a few thousand dollars more, you can get a furnished pad), while the complex offers five-star amenities like include two tennis courts, pool, basketball court, concierge, private cabanas, and the obligatory Zen Garden. This summer, beach porter service will be available.
Sometimes I wonder if optimism is anywhere near the crapper…
Reading over Graphrix’s OC Register headlines from 88-93, one thing that struck me is the number of “bright spots” during the last RE slump. I’m not talking about the REIC cheerleading, rather the months/quarters with strong sales numbers. I think there were quite a few months with 2000+ sales, even in the face of all that pain.
It’s made me wonder if there will always be a significant stream of FF’s who will keep falling on their collective swords to buy a home, recession and price deflation be damned. It’s now pretty obvious to J6P that there’s trouble brewing but the Final Fool burn-rate has been holding more-or-less steady. I do wonder if the market has “found support” and if Learah’s bottom-calling could be correct in the sense that sales won’t slide much further.
The market is nowhere near the bottom, but could have we found a bottom in sales?
I do wonder if the market has “found support”
Correction: I do wonder if sales has “found support”
oc_fliptrack.
I would suppose that you and I (bubble bloggers) read too much of the REIC spin crap. Most people do not, and this is what makes it difficult for us to predict.
Actually, sometimes having too much information works against predictive abilities which is why informal non-targeted surveys are so valuable for determining general sentiment.
John Doe
With that said,
most people I know who were hot for real estate and loved talking about it are strangely quiet. At first I though it was that they were stewing, but now I realize that they don’t even think about it anymore. It was like a fad.
I remember when I was young, friendship bracelets were hot for a while, and then 6 months later, nobody could even remember much about them… as if they just dropped off the face of the planet.
I am looking forward to no longer being pestered about “when are you going to buy a house.”
In another year or two, everyone will know someone whose house went back to the bank. I expect this to rein-in the optimism a bit though I do still project that the Final Fool Factory will continue to operate three shifts, holidays and weekends.