Comments on: Welcome 2007, SCREBC Blog Style

By: california movers

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By: Welcome 2008, SCREBC Blog Style | The OC Coastal Real Estate Blog

Welcome 2008, SCREBC Blog Style | The OC Coastal Real Estate Blog — Thu, 17 Jan 2008 19:19:30 +0000

[...] by Chuck Ponzi at 1:21 pm under Orange County Market Conditions Last year, my predictions for 2007 Southern California Housing turned out to be of all things, too optimistic. Let’s take a [...]

By: Southern California Real Estate Bubble Crash Blog » Blog Archive » Welcome 2008, SCREBC Blog Style

Wed, 16 Jan 2008 21:21:23 +0000

[...] Predictions 2007 Debunking Gary Watts [...]

By: AAA

AAA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:11:29 +0000

I need help . . . i want to buy a 4000 sqft house in N. Fontana. Asking price 525 but i put in offer at 480 and they are considering . . . is this a good deal . . . i thought it was untill i read all of tis stuff, Please help !!

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 17 Jan 2007 20:29:00 +0000

No answer here, but could housing stocks “recover” due to cost-cutting measures (like many non-housing related companies do in order to improve the bottom line)?

i.e. they cut jobs, write off non-performing ventures, and whatever they can to reduce costs and then despite a downturn, they actually show a profit to keep shareholders happy.

By: jonshee92

jonshee92 — Tue, 16 Jan 2007 03:19:00 +0000

Great to have you back Mr. John Doe. This is by far the best housing blog I’ve been on. You seem to have your ears real close to the ground and always seem to make a argument.

My question to you is, what do think about the “fact” that housing stocks (kbh, phm, tol, etc) have historically recovered prior to the housing market? I put quotations around the word “fact” because this is only something I have heard (Jim Cramer on Mad Money CNBC to be exact) and have yet to confirm myself. Although, I have seen a newspaper article saying the same darn thing.

If this is true, we should see a recovery sometime this year as the housing stocks have been recovering slowly but surely in the last 3-4 months. And, on a personal note, with this in mind, I have been loading up on KBH and MHT.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Fri, 12 Jan 2007 22:23:00 +0000

In reference to the above comment, the decline in inventory has been over the past month (which, of course, includes the holidays).

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Fri, 12 Jan 2007 22:08:00 +0000

Glad to read some more of this good stuff. One of my favorite places to visit on the web. Still unhappily renting in Rancho Cucamonga waiting for my house to sell in the south sound of Washington State where things are moving about as fast as down here.

I've noticed four things:

Existing homes inventory has declined by 15 homes or 7% in price range 500-800K in Rancho Cucamonga.

Generally prices have come down about 5-10% since summer. Some sellers aren't paying attention as there is WIDE variation in prices in homes of similar location/sq footage/condition/lot size.

The new home developers really aren't serious about lowering prices yet.

Finally, very few closed transactions are being reported in the Daily Bulletin section on the weekend in this price range. Maybe 1-2 per week.

I'm not buying anytime soon. Probably in 2008 unless sellers get a clue.

Conclusion: this is really going to get interesting this summer.

By: mike

mike — Fri, 12 Jan 2007 21:09:00 +0000

if by chance the market does somehow take off later this year it doesn’t mean that there is no bubble, rather that it will crash even harder when it does comes down. it’s so far off of the fundamentals that one way or another it has to come down significantly, whether it’s this year or next.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Fri, 12 Jan 2007 18:27:00 +0000

“Inventory is rising, prices are declining, and appreciation is zero to negative.”

Considering this is exactly how the last two real estate crashes occurred, I don’t understand how the bulls can honestly believe it is going to be different this time. Nothing has been different so far.

By: Dr Housing Bubble

Dr Housing Bubble — Fri, 12 Jan 2007 16:19:00 +0000

Great to have you back. Are we living in Wonderland? According to Gary Watts we are. If you read their statements it is as if you are in some sort of crack induced daze. Inventory is building, prices are declining, and appreciation is zero to negative and we are in a healthy and stable recovery? Yes my fellow bubble readers, we are fools to think that prices going down simply mean that we will have more pent up demand and a bigger jump in the summer; because the more you go down the more you go up. These are the laws of housing according to the real estate selling machine.

There is so much hope that the second half of the year will bring the 2nd coming of the housing gods that these folks are blind to the reality of what is going on. Inventory is rising, prices are declining, and appreciation is zero to negative. Does this sound like a recipe for a 2nd half bounce?

Dr. Housing Bubble