You could get into so much trouble using that quote out of context…

I saw the bigpicture article when it happened. That is some funny shiznit. David’s looking up Lereah’s condo values is pure genius. On the other hand, I’m sure that DL can handle a 100K loss better than the average schmuck, considering that he pulls down a fat paycheck from the NAR to say the idiocy he does.

Chuck

http://davidlereahwatch.blogsp.....-goes.html

Buying in mid-’05… I think this guy honestly believes the *$#@ he spews…

Also a good post over here:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/....._of_h.html

Keep up the good work Davey boy, thats some stellar number crunching…

There models are based on maintaining a high level of immigration to the US. If the inflow of people dries up (say if there is a significant recession/depression) then the flow of people will dry up.

Its interesting that we are really getting close to that inflection point.

Boomers

At some point its either cost competative and then its probably OK.

Or we are in a long term deflationary spiral. We should have a better idea over the next couple of years.

Remember we will see peak population phenomena before long. So, the supply of housing could possibly be going up for a large portion of the time you would be owning.

Dead Cat Bounces are always tempting because the last one is always the bottom. DCB’s bring in knife-catchers hoping for a return of rapid appreciation. The bottom usually forms when prices realign with fundamentals: that is where I may buy.

I love the OC home prices report from today. Very cool. Is there a permalink? I’d like to draw some inferences from the analysis.

Chuck

thebubblebuster.com – Today’s lead story OC Home Prices

Chuck

Nearly to the same day, Rich and I release similar pieces… See his here.

I swear we are not the same person.

Rich is great with data… he has some available to him through his work that I cannot (yet) afford. His charts are great.

In terms of a dead cat bounce, we may see one this spring and summer. Many people that I have talked to have pulled their homes from the market this winter; when I ask them why they say “summer prices will be back up.” For a large part this is one of the reasons that inventory in SoCal have maintained for the first two months of the year.

I expect a dead cat trampoline bounce; unfortunately expectations will not meet reality.

Dr. Housing Bubble