Is David Lereah an Idiot or a Genius?
Chuck Ponzi February 22nd, 2007
The Big Picture recently quoted a Minyanville article on some of David Lereah’s potentially drug-induced rantings and ravings. Take a look at the incredible list of gibberish that Lereah has spewed over the past few years in the face of the largest drop in housing prices on record.
Take a look at the stunning put-together from Kevin Depew’s article. Jan Housing
A number of blogs have taken Lereah to task on his in-your-face optimism in the face of direct evidence to the contrary. I even took a swing at his supposed insanity. One might assume that he is a certifiable moron, or has drunk too much of the Koolaid and is fitfully hallucinating. I have often wondered if he consumes vast quantities of illegal drugs to keep the hallucinations real, or if there is some even more sinister plan.
Much like Darren Meade of Victory Lending (Yes, the homeless boy turned bodybuilder turned nutritional supplement king turned mortgage lender) , one wonders exactly how much koolaid they might have consumed, and if there will be any long-term mental health impacts to the frequent regurgitation of bull. However, at least with David Lereah, there is at least some formal education to qualify him as a somewhat credible source; if my personal trainer began giving me financial advice, I might have to ask him to stick to what he knows best… it’s the ultimate expression of the shoeshine boy offering stock tips.
However, the difference between the 2 seems to me to be the voracity of their arguments. In one case, Darren obviously believes the crud he’s sharing. He speaks with all of the voracity of a Koresh believer. He might rather endure great pain or even death before admitting any wrong. His lending will only end when those providing the money end it for him. Consider that he might actually lack the mental discernment ability to know that what he’s selling is toxic waste of the lending kind.
Lereah, on the other hand is well educated and obviously people savvy enough to advance in the ranks to the top of one of the largest professional organizations in the US. Can someone so savvy really be so stupid? He, after all has even taught at UV and Rutgers. He has worked in numerous challenging areas including banking and at the FDIC.
The fact that he owns a few condos, I believe, is not a testament to his stupidity, but a rather proof of his cunning. He knows that the only way to truly convince people is to completely submit oneself into the role. Like any good actor, he has studied the role enough that he can play it 24/7/365. Remember how people thoroughly believed the characters of Andy Kaufman? His ability to convince was absolutely stunning and in my opinion without compare; a true showman… and we might just have another man of greatness right under our noses. I don’t mean greatness in his ability to predict or prove, but to ACT like he can. David Lereah might just be one of the most convincing actors of his day. How else could you explain the juxtaposition of his education and savvy with the ludicrous statements he makes? Consider that his payoff by playing the game will be better than admitting the obvious truth. He keeps his well paying job, and the escalated commitment provides him MORE believability to the average Joe who cannot read or understand financial journals that take him to task. The people believe the NAR because they are forced to believe it… where else would people get their information about housing? Blog? Ha Ha. The sheer genius of this strategy boggles the mind.
Like Kaufman’s detractors, Lereah’s detractors are mere flies on the shoulders of his greatness. His ability to have people believe the impossible, to make them forget outright lies and deceptions might be the single greatest act we have seen in this century or even this millennium.
On the other hand, he could just be the luckiest idiot alive. You be the judge.
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We are awash in a sea of spin doctors and people are too indifferent to search for truth.
Till we get burned badly enough then people will wake up.
Or perhaps we are becoming the third world. Haves with property and have nots without. Garbage strewn streets and decaying civil rights… loss of opporitunity.
that might be the answer too Ponzi. We just noticed our transformation to a third world nation.
uhhggg..
I agree that everyone needs to wake up! I have a friend in SCV (Valencia) who is actually thinking of flipping a house NOW. She’s a RE Agent and thinks the recovery is in full swing. I don’t get it. Must be drinking Kool-Aid with Lareah.
LA Renter,
Do you remember a few years ago when the SCV was considered sticksville? I do. When I moved there in 1999, it was basically a truckstop on the way to NoCal. A place to pee and gas up, maybe buy some twinkies.
Now, Valencia is more expensive than Laguna Niguel. Desert hill view more expensive than ocean view. That’ll boggle the mind.
Chuck
CP:
What do you think the whole concept of El-Lay is based on? Since the early days of Chandler boosterism, this place has relied on husksters to spin it as Nirvana. Valencia and their ilk may only be the most recent apparitions paraded out for the benefit of the Okies, but this has been ongoing for a hunnerd years now, kiddo! What do you think the south bay and the san fernando valley looked like but 50 years ago? Thanks to Bully Mulholland and the boys behind the LA Times, this megaGLOPolis is only living up to its booster-driven origins.
True,
You need people to believe the hype. I guess PT Barnum was right… there is a sucker born every minute.
Meanwhile, the traffic is worse in the SFV than one could imagine 50 years ago too. Soon, that will be the case for the entire southland area and then where do we go? Next stop Victorville! and Adelanto. Have you seen how they’re building out there? It’s like Palmdale/Lancaster a la 1990.
Chuck
Chuck:
I do remember stickville, in fact when I moved to Los Angeles in 1994, SCV was not a fraction of what it is today. The flipper I spoke of earlier slept in her car (w/ husband and dog) overnight amongst 12 other desperate buyers to get in to Phase Two of a new development back in 2004. My how things have changed. They already have renters in a home across the street and one renter two houses down. It makes no sense. This particular development is Tesoro de Valle. In December there were (I counted!) 14 for sale signs for two blocks of homes. You do the math.
I see David Liarrhea more like Baghdad Bob. He is a liar, he knows he is a liar, he is lying for personal gain and for the benefit of his group, and he doesn’t care about its impact on people outside the group. Every word he says is a lie, including ‘and’ and ‘the.’
Is lying the sign of genius? Or is it just the sign of a lack of moral and ethical standards? Baghdad Bob had to lie or he probably would have been killed, at least you can’t fault him for trying to save his own life. Liarrhea on the other hand…
IR,
True, but DL gets paid big bucks to keep up the charade. And I don’t mean the NAR. I mean the book deals, speaking engagements, etc. That’s where he has to maintain the facade of “why the housing boom will not bust” and all that garbage. Would I be willing to lie for $15MM? Dang, that’s a moral dillema. It seems everyone has their price. His just might be lower… of course he could rationalize it if he’s just playacting.
Chuck.
Everyone has a price. The cost of his soul is probably lower than mine. With all the people he is going to cajole into bankruptcy, he is going to pay a very high price. At some point his humanity will probably kick in, and he will have trouble sleeping at night…
well maybe not, I underestimate the power of rationalization at times…
There are similar people in the realm of politics. Does anyone think Ann Coulter has a soul? It has to be difficult to spout hate-filled rhetoric 24/7.
A co-worker of mine used to work at Enron (fairly high up actually). He told me Jeff Skilling still doesn’t think he did anything wrong and that Enron would still be in business if they had been given some more time and credit. I suppose anyone running a Ponzi scheme feels the same.
Eventually this will be seen as misleading and criminal. Till then its advertising.
He is paid to help sell real estate and he does it. Quite effectivly.
Its funny but sitting on the sidelines waiting this out. We need the help of the strong hands to keep things from getting too inflationary or will be looking at even worse situation in short order.
What fun
David Lereah is to Baghdad Bob as…
the NAR is to Saddam Hussein!
Yeah… seems about right.
who in their right mind makes mid to high six figure incomes (all a guess on my part) and buys single unit investment properties. grow some *#@$*^# nuts and buy a building, flip an apartment complex or develop something with some serious umph! i just cant believe that he thinks he might hit postitive cash flow after factoring in the cost of property mangement, taxes, condo fees etc… WTF! two possible answers:
a. he is a flipping hoar with terrible timing
b. he doesnt know how to use basic functions in Excel such as =pmt(), =ipmt() or even =sum()
dios mio !
See my comment above.
I’m sure he makes waay more than high six-figure income… but, the potential (and all but given at this point) loss is chump change he gets by maintaining his story.
I say he’s either a genius or a friggin’ moron.
good point… he is if nothing else a man of mystery…
the irony is half the RE people in this world prolly admire him for moves like this. i dont think people realise how structurally hard it is to do anything with single units unless you feel confortable fielding phone calls about clogged toilets and random cars in assigned parking spots… unless you’re a grinder stick with the stock market…
I think most of the realtors are true morons. They drink the kool-aid daily, and they will continue to do so right down to the bottom. Shortly, you will hear NAR or CAR talking about how “surprised” they were with the collapsing market. They probably really will be surprised because they have drank so much kool-aid they can’t see what is obvious to those of us who haven’t.
I suppose the real question is whether these people are zealots or morons; genius is not one of the viable choices.
Here’s a blurb from the Santa Clarita Real Estate Blog:
The Editor’s note is especially humorous-What exactly is NAHB Economics?!
February 21, 2007
A report issued by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) today puts builder confidence at its highest point since June 2006, with the index rising from 35 in January to 40 in February.
Although builders are still cautious and are watching their inventories carefully, “The HMI results are consistent with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s assessment to Congress this week that there are signs of stabilization on the demand side of the housing market,” according to NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. Sieders went on to say that the recent downslide in homes sales is “now in their rear view mirrors”.
This is great news for Santa Clarita builders, with many new home developments opening their doors this year.
EDITOR’S NOTE: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public.
Do you really expect the spokesman for something to bad mouth the something? Why waste breath over this guy? Go watch the movie “Thank You for Smoking.” If he doesn’t want to make the millions there’s millions behind him who’ll do it.
Are you people familiar with the expression “A watched pot never boils”? Of course the pot will eventually boil, but you’re wasting your time standing over it waiting.
You are probably right, but sometimes, it is nice just to vent about a$$holes like DL once in a while.
Yes and no,
People who watch football games are just waiting for the final score, but enjoy watching the action while it happens.
The action of the game is much of the excitement, and the same reason that people will watch tivo’d matches or reruns of games. To say that watching the blow-by-blow is not interesting because you already know the ending score is missing the point of the sport.
To see the offense of the NAR “economists” and NAHB against the defense of reputable and believable economists is every bit as entertaining to me even though I know how it’s going to end.
Gives us something to do while we wait for homes to become affordable again so we can buy.
Chuck Ponzi
House on the market for more than a year in Los Seranos in Chino Hills intially listed for $779,000 just sold for $650,000. Who would have thought 3 years ago that those homes would be going for $650K? It is a major step in the right direction over the past year. However, I’m a bit disappointed that the house sold for that much. Was hoping to see a drop into the 500s. I want to see the houses that are currently in the 800 range drop down to the 600s. Then I might pull the trigger. I haven’t seen a large increase in inventory in the last 2 months but I’m watching closely in Rancho Cucamonga. Boy I hope you all are right and the NAR is wrong. Only time will tell.
What gets me bent out of shape is no opposing view is presented after DL gives his spin on the markets. CNBC gives this guy way too much air time with counter argument. CNBC did better asking CEOs of companies with high valuations during tech boom of late 99.
up in North California its no better..
How does a home prior value of under 300K 10 years back sell for over 1.4m in 2007 not to mention values were only 600K in 2005. Totaly insane…