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Archive for February, 2007

Are People Really That Dense?

Chuck Ponzi February 20th, 2007

Last stick-at-the-top discussion was about the ongoing pressure of lending on homebuying… whether there really are any changes taking place.

For this discussion, are there people still flipping houses? Do you see them? Have they listed and relisted several times? Is anyone selling, and who is buying them?

Do you see anyone, or know anyone who is thinking of flipping houses?

I have a work colleague who is anxiously awaiting his a family member’s death so he can take their inheritance and begin “flipping properties in earnest”. Is that sick or what?

What evidence do you see?

Is There A bubble? - Chuck Answers Inman News

Chuck Ponzi February 20th, 2007

A while back, Inman news contacted me about a contribution to their site in the form of a questionnaire that would later be published. I have attached my responses… as published on Inman. I have a cached page since they tend to make you pay for that.

Name: “John Doe” — real name not given
Background: MBA, bachelor’s degree in accounting, economics hobbyist
Blog site: Southern California Real Estate Bubble Crash Blog

Q: What makes you a real estate bubble believer, a bubble debunker, or bubble neutral?

Continue Reading »

The Man Behind the Mask

Chuck Ponzi February 20th, 2007

Chuck In Earlier Years

Chuck in his earlier years…

Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Taking from later investors to pay off earlier ones.

50% profits in 45 days.

Listen to Chuck Woolery talk about Chuck Ponzi’s scheme from the History Channel.

Welcome to the NEW SCREBC Blog

Chuck Ponzi February 19th, 2007

Hello everyone new.

If you hadn’t noticed, the blog has made the move that I mentioned nearly a week ago.

The first thing you’ll notice is that the look and feel is slightly different. This is a good thing. We have rid ourselves of the Blogger boring template and limitations that posed to us. We will be much happier here, we think. And, although it did require us to go and find a host for our site, we think the extra money is well worth the additional functionalities. There are, however, a couple of good and bad things that happened in the transition:

1. When I brought over my blog from Blogger (Google), it appears that only 25 comments per thread were transferred. Regrettably, we will miss them, but we won’t lose sleep over it.

2. The order of the site loading changed slightly (takes some additional time for some of the content to come up). Overall, the pages load actually faster on the new host. If enough people complain, I will look into another solution. Otherwise, it is what it is.

Continue Reading »

John Doe is Officially Changing His Name

Chuck Ponzi February 17th, 2007

Based on input by other readers, and my own personal leanings: here were some of the finalists:

Iznop Selrahc

Charlie Ponzi

and the WINNER IS:

CHUCK PONZI.

Thanks IrvineRenter for giving me that last little push.

Ever since I was a kid, I looked up to Chuck Norris (Until he did that incredibly lame and stupid Walker Texas Ranger crap), so this I think fits well.

Thanks for all of you who gave me ideas. From now on, John Doe will be referred to as Chuck Ponzi.

RE Joke of the Week: 02/17/2007

Chuck Ponzi February 17th, 2007

This one is for all of those real estate agents who are going to get laid off in the coming downswing:

Broker, to four of his agents: “I’m really sorry, but I’m going to have to
let one of you go.”

Black Agent: “I’m a protected minority.”

Female Agent: “And I’m a woman.”

Oldest Agent: “Fire me, buster, and I’ll hit you with an age discrimination
suit so fast it’ll make your head spin.”.

.To which they all turn to look at the helpless young, white, male Agent,
who thinks a moment, then responds: “I think I might be gay…”

Value Range Pricing and the Priced to Sit Phenomenon in SoCal

Chuck Ponzi February 15th, 2007

This may offend some people, so if you are stupid and easily offended about your house not selling, don’t read any further because you will miss the point. Unfortunately, it’s exactly you who needs to hear this because you’re stupid.

The Issue

Value range pricing is my anathema. Why a seller would subject themselves to such a stupid lie, and what kind of a idiot selling agent would suggest one to their client is incomprehensible to me. I can only envisioin 2 scenarios where it would be used.

1. The selling agent is a certified moron
2. The seller is a certified moron

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the concept of value range pricing, it’s actually quite simple yet exceedingly confusing. Instead of telling a buyer what your asking price is, you tell them a range of prices. For example, instead of listing your house at $400,000, you list your house for $400,000 to $420,000.

Sellers

Let’s be honest. Do you know of any other thing for sale that is listed in a range? Anything? I have thought long and hard about this, and I don’t know of a single thing. So, what is different about housing? Do you prefer your buyers confused about what you’ll accept? Would you continue to shop at Vons or Pavilions if milk were value range priced, and they didn’t tell you how much it was until you went to check out? What about buying a car? Would you be willing to buy a car if the dealer told you he would sell you a car in a value range price? Would you pay anything more than the lower price?

Let’s do this (and this is something that Brad of We Help You Buy Realty has suggested), you list your house for sale in a value range of $799K to $839K, and I’ll submit an offer for your house in the value range of $0 to $799K, ok? So, explain to me how you know what I will pay for your house. Why wouldn’t I just show up to escrow and proceed to pay $1 for your house? It’s in the value range, isn’t it?

Continue Reading »

Cali Real Estate Agents Love Their Pot (Houses)

Chuck Ponzi February 14th, 2007


Also from the Sacramento Area:

Eight of the last nine valley pot houses raided by federal authorities are owned by a single group of real estate agents and family members.
An analysis of property records by News10 following drug raids on January 12 and February 7 reveals the link.
Real estate broker Norberto Gaerlan and sales agents Gina Gaerlan Monterola and Yile Xu of American Homes in Union City along with other Gaerlan and Monterola family members own or have owned eight pot houses in Lathrop, Tracy and Modesto.

and what could have tipped one of the property owners off?

Xu told investigators the property manager paid all the owners with cash delivered in individual plastic bags.

Ha Ha.

Maybe they thought: Hmm… I wonder why they always pay me in cash in these used plastic bags with fine grass clippings… Maybe they’re all doing yard work for a living, and that’s why their income is 100K per year. Well, I guess everybody’s rich in California.

Gives new meaning to the occupation field on the renter’s form when they state “grass cutting”.

If there is any question as to the depth and breadth of real estate speculation in California by real estate agents themselves… you might want to reconsider that notion.

California Foreclosures Go Parabolic

Chuck Ponzi February 14th, 2007

Sacrament’s News 10 gives us the inside scoop:

California continues to lead the nation in foreclosure activity with a nearly 300 percent rise last month from January 2006.

and

In a prepared statement, foreclosures.com president Alexis McGee laid much of the blame for the spike in foreclosure activity on creative financing which allowed buyers to purchase homes beyond their means.

It is exactly this kind of news that makes Bernanke’s Policy Report to Congress today sound trite. He said:

Despite the ongoing adjustments in the housing sector, overall economic prospects for households remain good. Household finances appear generally solid, and delinquency rates on most types of consumer loans and residential mortgages remain low.

The view that the FED chairman holds about the current state of delinquencies may prove to be unfounded and out-of-date at least for California.

Boomers, Clueless and Wondering

Chuck Ponzi February 13th, 2007

If anyone knows me, I love to poke around others’ blogs for hours on ends, just reading and reading. Every once in a while, something piques my interest in just a certain way that I think it captures a small part of the zeitgeist. With that said, I think much could be said about a subtle rivalry between boomers and Xers.
Well, subtle in the sense that Xers haven’t been giving the Boomers the chair-over-the head routine.
Just such a post from the ActiveRain blog shows how clueless many Boomers are about Xer’s interests, or for that matter, even who they are. This was stated by “The Harper Team” associate who blithely posted a blog entry with the original title that appeared to be XXX Adult Market until he/she realized that it perhaps would attract the wrong kind of internet crowd… OK, if you don’t find that funny, you probably won’t find this cluelessness funny either:

Everyday over at The Harper Team, we are interacting with more and more young people looking for their first home. I happened upon a post from The New York Times has a post Young Buyers, Prepared and Fearless and it got me thinking again about Gen X.
This is a great read to help us understand the mind set of Gen X buyers entering into the housing market. These young buyers are not afraid of carrying more debt (they’ve never been through hard times) and they come prepared with a great deal of online research to support their purchase offer.

OK, any Xers out there would probably range between humored and mildly incensed. Have no fear, one of their readers turns it around on them:
It’s funny how most Gen X posts I read always originate from a baby boomer who’s read some book or article on the subject, … often written by another baby boomer.
I have worked with Gen-X in the last year, and I can tell you that none of them were fearless about loans. In fact quite the opposite. I think that a lot of young people are still very conservative and conscientious about their mortgage. Where this generalized notion of fearlessness comes from is unknown to me.

Of course, the ball was so placed, that any kind of response to that blather could be knocked out of the park by a certified imbecile. Really, that’s just stupid talk.
Another poster was a bit more to the point:
“Never been though hard times”
What sort of bullshit is that? Pretty much every GenXer I know believes the overwhelming majority of us will be working until the day we die trying to pay off the soon to be bankrupt social security system, and shameful national debt.
Good job baby boomers overbuilding 55+ condos like confetti in Times Square on New Years eve. You don’t seriously think they will retain value once you guys start kicking the bucket do you?
I wonder who will have to clean up the mess you guys make?
…oh yeah…
Gen X will.

The funniest part of that whole interchange was that the Boomers hadn’t at all realized that they should have been talking about GenY all along, not GenX. The New York Times article was talking about early 20 somethings. Xers are now making their way through the 30’s and 40’s.
I apologize to my boomer readers, but dang that is funny, and like so many Boomers to mix up who they were even talking about.
It all reminds me of a post over on Mish’s Global Economic Analysis blog some time ago about a realtor who had lost a friendship over a house at the lake. The former friend of the agent was pointing the finger to a shady deal that they had lost the house on the lake, and the agent had gone and bid on the property and was buying it. Two boomers duking it out over a piece of property… man, that just has funny written all over it. One of the most memorable parts of that post was a comment that SenX left:

I seem to have an insatiable appetite for anecdotal housing bust stories. I simply never get tired of reading about the mistakes others have made and the miserable situations they are in. If they are in denial about the trainwreck they are on it doesn’t really diminish my enjoyment of the event. If anything it just heightens the anticipation.

I don’t care for either side in this story. The “lets get a second home on the lake as a weekend house”, child-like, tantrum having, baby boomers or the backstabbing, jilted, snakeoil selling real estate family. I hope we keep getting updates as this mess unwinds further.

The reality is that GenX is coming into their own in many facets, financially, politically, and socially, and that the excesses of the former generation might be enough impetus for us to really solve some of the problems that they left us.
Good Luck, GenX

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