How Idiots Get Printed
Chuck Ponzi April 11th, 2007
This is the kind of stuff that we’ll laugh about in a few years. Spurious logic, and a complete lack of verifiable information, but KoolAid galore. Here, forever immortalized in print for future generations to remind us just how clueless some people are:
It was with great disappointment that I read the latest Jonathan Lansner diatribe on how the sky is falling as it pertains to the Orange County real estate market ["Investment watcher predicts O.C. recession," Marketplace, April 11]. Since Lansner, CEO/Chief strategist for Ero Pacific Capital Peter Schiff, and others have consistently made similar predictions for years, during a time when property values doubled in this area, I’d have to consider their opinions at least suspect.
Both Lansner and Schiff, as well as UCLA and Chapman College representatives have all been predicting the bursting of the real estate “bubble” year after year. They have all been consistently wrong and have probably cost the would-be homeowners, who held off due to these dire and inaccurate predictions, untold thousands of dollars in returns on a sensible real estate investment, and the subsequent appreciation (not to mention the significant tax deductions.)
For those foolish enough to listen to them, and who held off purchasing a home, it may be too late. Many will probably never be able to afford a home in Orange County now thanks to the doom and gloomers. Particularly offensive was Schiff’s advice: “When everyone in real estate is waiting tables (or in jail) and your neighbors think you are crazy for even considering real estate, then it will be time to buy.” I have spent much of my life in Southern California real estate. I do my best to provide accurate advice and handle my clients with professionalism and courtesy. Schiff’s broad-brush stereotyping of thousands of hard-working real estate professionals reflects much more on his reputation than ours. I still consider O.C. real estate an outstanding long-term investment, and history unerringly proves me correct.
The primary cause of the recent (and temporary) slow down in this market, in my opinion, is due to the piling on of media and pundits that must feed the fears of their readers on a daily basis in order to stay in business. Schiff’s prediction of a 50 percent decrease in O.C. home values is beyond ridiculous. Despite what Schiff and other fear mongers predict, the law of supply and demand hasn’t stopped working and the whole world still wants to live in Orange County.
Mark Panattoni
That’s how idiots get printed.
It leaves me wondering. Is it the media that is causing all of those foreclosures too? What about inventory, affordability, and job losses, is that media too? Heck, why don’t we throw in AIDS, Heart Disease, and Colorectal Cancer too?
Thanks, OC Register, you just made my day.
That would be great satire if it was written by one of us. It is just laughably ridiculous written by someone who was trying to be serious.
My sentiments exactly. I don’t think I could have nailed the internal voice any better.
“and the whole world still wants to live in Orange County.”
I love that one…
Um, yeah. We lived in the OC until last year. I was born and raised in California. Housing (among numerous other factors now plagueing Cali) is the reason we left. Sorry, not everyone wants to live there anymore.
I guess this is that “pathology” you were talking you talking about eh?
Pathological beliefs supported by a healthy dose of denial. That guy must drink kool-aid for breakfast.
“When everyone in real estate is waiting tables (or in jail) and your neighbors think you are crazy for even considering real estate, then it will be time to buy.”
This is true already. So I guess it is time to buy right now!
My reply to this guy would be just a graph of the ’90s real estate bust. “Property in SoCal never goes down, eh?”
BTW- the whole world does NOT want to live in Orange County. I live in Chicago and know plenty of people who actually hate California (and hate Californians even more) and wouldn’t move there if the homes were free and the the faucets poured champaign.
First off, it’s spelled “champagne.” But I wouldn’t have expected a Chicagoan to be able to spell it anyway.
Secondly, we don’t want you here. In fact, if you came here and got about 5 million mid-westerners who moved here because the weather in Chicago, Detroit, Des Moines and all the other hicktowns in the midwest is so friggin’ terrible, that would be just excellent. And California would be the great place that is was when I was growing up.
Whoah,
Hold your horses there, bessie. The Blog owner is from Des Moines. You had better step carefully here when discussing the midwest. Those cities are far from hick towns.
Secondly, your second paragraph is so incomprehensible, I’m not sure exactly what point you were trying to make, but you didn’t make it. Either way, check your hate at the door. That’s how we do things in the midwest… country style.
In the words of Inigo Montoya
“You keep using that word. I do not think it means, what you think it means.”
Bring back the California of when you were growing up? Pray tell, when exactly is that going to be?
I was referencing the comment to which I responded. And you can tell SoCalwatcher to check his hate at the door. See his line “… and hate Californians even more.”
And pray tell, the California of when I was growing up was the California of far fewer than the 35 million people that it is now. But with all the mid-Westerners and others who moved here, it clearly is not that California any more.
And to clarify my second paragraph - remove about 5 million of those who moved here because of the weather (and other reasons,) many from your beloved mid-west and that would be a good start on the “old” California.
Comprehensible now Chuck?
I’m sure the Mexican government would take issue with your description of “Old California”.
And, for that matter, so would the indigenous Native Americans. And problably befor that, some lizards and iguanas.
Frankly, we don’t have any more right to the land than anyone else who settles here. And, if you want to get to the nitty gritty, many of the newcomers pay waaay more taxes than the originals through Prop 13. Kinda seems to me like they have some claim to the land.
Wanna blame someone for making California suck? You’d be better off blaming politicians for fostering the business climate back in the 90’s more than the weather. People follow jobs, not weather, else why would people move to Detriot if it weren’t for the Auto industry. I guarantee, if you get the industry to move out of California, so go the people (and unfortunately the taxes that pay for the good schools, infrastructure, etc).
Yes, your answer was much more coherent this time.
My father moved us all to San Diego (Rancho Bernardo) in 1969 from Detroit. Yes, SoCal was a wonderful place to live as a middle class single family of 7 could live in a nice home and have good schools and a excellent quality of life.
I’ve seen booms and busts. I was in the Antelope Valley (Lancaster) working at Edwards AFB during the 90’s bust a watched my home lose 40% of its value between 1992 and 1996. How quickly we forget.
I got the itch to leave CA in 2001 and moved to the Southeast for three years, thought I was missing something and made the biggest mistake of my life. I moved back to SoCal in September 2004. WOW! Does anyone remember the John Carpenter movie “They Live”? A guy discovers that we have been slowing taken of by aliens and you can tell who’s who by wearing a special pair of glasses. That’s me. I though of buying a home 10/04 - 12-04 and decided this market is going crash so bad, it will bounce three times. Everyone drank the Kool-Aid!
I did my year and moved back to the Southeast. Best move I ever made. Oh yeah, the schools do suck in California (maybe not in Poway or Del Mar). My children were way behind coming from the Antelope Valley Westside School District. The school here, Huntsville, Alabama told us don’t get too upset, you aren’t the first CA escapees to find out your old CA school sucked. Me met many other CA refugees that had the same story and told to be glad our children weren’t older as they would have really had to struggle.
Yes, the “old CA” is gone in most of SoCal and only survives in small pockets. Its not the illegals fault, its your average Joe Six-pack. Californians over the past 20 years have accepted poor service, poor schools, big government and outrageously priced homes that are not justified by anything CA has to offer. The collective wisdom of CA is bankrupt and they will pay for their indifference to the fundamentals.
In 2010 if prices came back down, would I return? Maybe if I could live in Poway, Rancho Bernardo or parts of the OC, but I doubt it!
Ok, spelling Nazi…
I happen to love California. Alot people I know here do not. Why? Well, seems alot Californians live in a fantasy land. The “holier than thou” attitude and excessive conspicuous consumption may be some reasons. Sure the weather is great, but the attitudes are not. As for “The good ole’ days of CA”…your acestors were new to the area at one point also, pal.
Explain if OC is so great, then why do I see about 5 California license plates around Chicago a week? I highly doubt they are driving 2,800 miles one way for a vacation.
The rest of the country has been sitting back and watching the carnival of idiots unfold in SoCal. Now, the music stopped and the tent is falling down but OC’ers still think everything is ok. LMAO.
Your attitude confirms my theory.
And this guys attitude is another reason we left the god-forsaken state. People are just so rude. Go elsewhere in the country and you just don’t get that. Yeah, there are still the ocassional jerks, but so noticeably less everywhere outside of Cali.
Californians don’t reciprocate the hatred from the Midwest. Where is the Midwest, anyhow?
Fred
Your response is very Californian.
Aloof is the best word, or maybe incognizant.
They don’t care what people think about them if they don’t consider them contemporaries. If they do, watch out, they’ll out shop, out compete, and out-everything to try to look better.
Californians don’t know where the midwest is (not for a lack of education, many are very well educated), but because they could care less. They’re spending too much time an energy worrying what other Californians think about them.
Which idiots getting printed are we talking about? The incorrect predictors in MSM of 5 years ago that Mr. Panattoni is refering to, see: http://www.uclaforecast.com/co.....9_02_1.asp when OC existing home price was approx. 360K or tin foil hat bloggers today with OC existings(feb ‘07) at approx. 675K? Yep, there won’t be any bright spots in housing for a few years but it must be thin stale air down there in the bunker after 5 yrs of waiting for the flash.
First off, I’m glad to see some trolls here after some hiaitus. We missed you kool-aid drinking guys & gals for a while while the median tumbled 6% and sales slowed 45%.
Your post is contradictory. Here’s why:
1. The story you referenced only had this to say about housing:
Which was true in 2002, and frankly through till 2005.
2. Panatonni was incorrectly naming the UCLA forecasters as doom and gloomers, predicting a housing busts “year after year”. You see that above they were positive about the effects of housing.
3. Huh? 675K? You been asleep Rip? Time to rub the dust from the eyes and look more closely.
4. Most pundits have only clamored on after 2005 (which, at that point, the bubble was so far entrenched that only an idiot could deny its existence). They haven’t been hiding out since 2002, most of them sold their homes in 2004-2005 in anticipation. Ok, so they were 1 year early… BFD. Bubbles are irrational, so there is no way of predicting their course in the short term. I have no doubt that those that sold in 2004/2005 have been handsomely rewarded and have yet to reap their greatest benefits.
As far as your comments about no bright spots… you can say that again, but that’s more than slighly understating the problem.
The truth remains, never in history has the common man ever been priced out forever as this agent is assuming has happened here. Temporarily due to manias, yes, but never for long.
Panattoni is the name of a big developer in So Cal. In fact, they’re developing a huge project in Ontario as we speak (type.) It’s going to be a “lifestyle” development with retail, offices and residential.
I wonder if the above Panattoni is any relation? It isn’t a common name.
Just to add to my comment above, here’s the link to the Panattoni website on the development I’m talking about.
http://www.panattoni.com/featured.cfm
Gab, very good catch - this not a common name.
If they are in fact related, and if the Register printed this crap without any disclosure or reference to the fact that this guy is (or is related to) a real estate developer actively trying to sell SoCal real estate, I would say this falls squarely within the realm of irresponsibile journalism on the part of the editors who failed to spot this, and not just the author himself.
and the whole world still wants to live in Orange County.
Wait just a minute. According to our real estate “experts”, the whole world wants to live in Marin County. Sorry OC, but you are not special like we are. My realtor says so.
Sorry Marinite,
You may be god’s country (per LAY), but we ARE God down here.
In other words, we pwned you.
j/k
Chuck
I read a thread the other day where one of the comments stated the OC is akin to New York, London or Paris as a special place where the wealthy all want to live so our real estate prices are justified and will remain at current levels.
I have laughed to myself thinking about that comment for the last few days.
Yes, we are God here.
And, I do miss the trolls. Maybe riec mike will post again.
Yeah,
I have heard that and read it in print. No doubt this comes from someone who has never been to any of those cities for more than just a sandwich in the airport.
Orange County has great weather, and a very robust housing-based economy. The future of the housing-based economy? Meh. Doesn’t look rosy if you ask me with all of the lending bailout talk in DC. Want to know who really runs the show? You can guess they don’t live in OC or even on the West Coast. We are the tail on the dog.
Yes, I actually miss trolls too. There were plenty of them back in 2005 when real estate was a religion. I even did a post way back when about it. Good times, good times.
Chuck,
With what is about to happen; we will look back at that as good times.
Total carnage and misalocation of resources. Everybody is going to feel the sting.
If the demand for housing in the OC really is still strong, than why is the bank’s agent forced to post the following listing on Craigslist:
“$850000 Short Sale - Come Steal Me
Short Sale Opportunity in the gated community of Bear Brand Ridge. Light and bright, open floorplan w. high cathedral ceilings and windows.Upgraded kitchen w. beautiful cabinets and granite countertops. Master suite features a retreat, sinks and walk-in closets. Offers subject to lender approval.
Sold in 2005 for 1.3 Million!
Hit “reply” to contact agent for details and photos.
Location: Laguna Niguel
it’s NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests”
Banks have been hording inventory in the OC on the hopes that the market will turn positive again.
I just want to leave with this comment:
“Most of the Realtors, Lenders, and others who during the 03-06 period were helping to push this bubble to unprecedented heights, have taken a further step in today’s market and are now walking with the devil. If you know that sales are pitiful, refis have stopped, and people are just not willing to pay for these overpriced houses; why are you still telling anyone who will listen that the market is great?”
I see 50% decline in Real State prices.
Chuck - I know you saw this one that I pulled from a article in the Register from 1990 but I wanted to point out that most of the economists were bullish in the 90s downturn. I think they just didn’t want to make the same mistake again. While Chapman called it early this time they will probably correct in the end. But here is the quote from Dec. 1990.
“Chapman College, which does the most detailed analysis of Orange County, last week predicted that by 1992, Orange County homes again will be appreciating faster than the inflation rate, with annual appreciation of 9.4 percent by 1995. ” Doh!
I just had someone tell me how great this housing market is: “Look across the street at the house on the market for a million dollars! I just love what this market is doing.”
Yeah, it’s still across the street, and still for sale overpriced by more than a quarter mil. I guess that makes this a great market.
There are 9 houses for sale within two blocks of my rental house in the IE. One has sold in the last 6 months. ONE. This market will go NOWHERE until existing home sellers reduce their prices by at least 20%. I’m just so surprised people selling now haven’t done so already. Why wouldn’t they want to beat all the people putting their homes up for sale in late spring and summer? Why wait until the market is even MORE saturated with homes languishing with signs in the front yard? Dumb.
Anyway, I can’t find an existing house that is priced reasonably with any kind of privacy. These boxes are so close together it’s sad. I used to play soccer and other games in our “side yard” next to the house as a kid in the mid-west. No such thing as a side yard in California. Why do builders even put windows on the side? Love the stucco view out our kitchen window in the rental.
Hearing some dirt bag want to use MY tax dollers to bail out the people who got in over their heads makes me want to puke. Politicians continue to amaze me at their foolishness. Love the one about the Governor’s MVA who wasn’t wearing his seatbelt on the way to have an audience with Don Imus. 12 rib fractures? Brilliant.
Why do builders put windows on the side? Light.
It would be more honest, though, if they were to use frosted glass.
I have been lurking here for some time and thought I should post this email I sent and the response I got from Mr. Panattoni…Enjoy
At 06:00 PM 4/14/2007, you wrote:
Dear Mr Panatonni and associates,
“Late breaking letters: Media experts and the ‘coming’ real estate market crash
Posted, Wednesday afternoon, April 11″
“Many will probably never be able to afford a home in Orange County now thanks to the doom and gloomers.”
If this is in fact true will your children ever be able to afford housing?
I believe the “doom and gloomers” will bring about a market correction that will allow people to afford housing that matches incomes (say 2001 prices).
Bye bye to the exotic loans that caused this bubble.
” I do my best to provide accurate advice and handle my clients with professionalism and courtesy”
I seriously doubt this last quote. Your advice has put many new homeowners in foreclosure. I hope you can live with yourself and your shady business practices.
“The primary cause of the recent (and temporary) slow down in this market, in my opinion, is due to the piling on of media and pundits that must feed the fears of their readers on a daily basis in order to stay in business.”
Is the media also responsible for the massive increase in foreclosures, increase in inventory, lack of any reasonable affordability in housing, and job losses (yes lots of these in the real estate business, just don’t tell anyone working in your office or they may get scared to lose their jobs in the next year or so).
Oh and I will be in the market to buy a new home when sanity comes back to the housing market.
I mean you no harm or disrespect with this letter. Just my opinion.
Best of luck in the next few years,
Josh
Mr Panattoni’s response…
Josh:
1) I don’t have children but most in my family already own homes, their children will benefit from the wisdom of my generation, and that of their parents, and be able to purchase because of the inheritances they will receive, in large part due to our real estate holdings.
2) Not one of my hundreds of past clients is in foreclosure (I talk to every one of them at least a few times a year). I have numerous clients, however, that I sold their first 2 BR condo to years ago, and who have gradually upgraded, and are now living in Newport Coast in million dollar homes. What do you live in?
3) You’re in no position to judge me or my advice. You know nothing about me.
4) There is no “Bubble.” If you think Orange County prices are high, check out prices in Hong Kong http://www.colliershomes.com/ It’s $2,000 a _month_ to have a place to park your car! Orange County prices haven’t even begun to see their top.
5) I’m quite certain you don’t own a home, never have, and probably never will (how am I doing?) People who have experienced the many benefits of home ownership rarely, if ever, go back to renting. You keep on waiting for those 2001 prices. In the meantime, newly arrived immigrants from the Pacific Rim, Persians, and Russians, will keep buying up property in O.C like it’s going out of style. (I just sold one of my homes, on the lake in Irvine, to a Hong Kong businessman for nearly $1.1 Mil CASH) I own and have owned dozens of properties in Orange County and elsewhere. I’ve yet to be sorry I bought a single one.
6) I don’t need luck. I’ve been successful in real estate in good markets and bad for more than two decades.
7) Real estate is cyclical. It always has been. But, as my letter states, over the long haul it has appreciated _far_ better than the stock market or any other investment you can name.
Thanks for your opinion. Now you know a little more about mine. Let me know if/when you come to realize that wafting has cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars and I’ll help you find a good deal and a great investment in your future.
…..
I don’t know if I was out of line with this but I think everyone should write this guy a letter
Some truths never get old.
Chuck Ponzi
I dunno. I think we have more and more spirit sickness in this country.
Just considering life choices and what I would like to do in retirement. 95% of it has zero to do with what kind of house I own.
Guys like the realtor just suck you in to that.
Me, I’m planning on travel, hiking, backpacking, surfing and tooling around on a day sailer.
Other than the marginal cost for an (older) boat my monthly expenses will be quite low. You can also take a boat to some nice exotic locations and store/rent it for low costs.
You buy in to these guys crap and you will be a debt slave for a thirty years with a marginal return to your kids. Me, I’ll be sitting on low expenses after relocation to some place warm and sunny.
Not to mention if you spend SO much money on a house you will end up staying in it. We live in SoCal. The great things are outside; so what the hell are you doing blowing your wad on a big stupid house? If you go to the beach on a vacation do you care more about the hotel room or the water? Seems like everyone is getting sucked in to the marginal value of an extra bedroom.
Considering that real estate has significantly underperformed stocks; I’m investing heavily in emerging markets and companies I’ve researched and understand. Other than the last three speculative bubbles real estate has been a mess.
Chuck:
Amen, Amen!
3) You’re in no position to judge me or my advice. You know nothing about me.
Oh really? If you put your advice out for the world to see, then anyone is in the position to judge your advice. Sorry pal, the “Don’t challenge my wisdom” schitck is probably what is going to have the clients who have never had a foreclosure to have one oin the next year or two when they try to sell.
This guy seems to forget the same exact scenario played out in Japan not to long ago. And it was UGLY.
This guy is a blowhard of biblical proportions.
That he has his head firmly planted between his cheeks is no surprise.
I knew a guy who back in 2000 swore with voracity that Sun Microsystems was about to change the world, and bought more at $60.00. It’s floating around at about $6 now.
He can go buy more houses for all we should care. Prices are coming down for normal people, and that’s all that matters.
Who cares about millionaires buying in Newport Beach. Those are playthings for the rich. They’re certainly not going to be buying Irvine Condos, that’s stupidity. There’s no investment value in them. A fool and his money are soon parted.
Chuck
Good Point Socalwatcher
Watch, they will just market these run of the mill condos that all the Newport Beach richies are buried in as “Small getaways to rub elbows with the common man”.
I can see the ads now:
“Visit reality with your own condo in Irvine! See what it is like to live in a space that is roughly the size of your master bedroom like those who only make $100K year! Cozy, sweet and homey. You even have to park your Mercedes outside in your own assigned space! Buy NOW and sell for a huge profit in 6 months!!!”
Rumors abound of banks sitting on repos so not to flood the market.
If leaks are sprouting about this practice then its getting closer to the dam breaking.
[...] How Idiots Get Printed [...]
“When everyone in real estate is waiting tables (or in jail) and your neighbors think you are crazy for even considering real estate, then it will be time to buy.”
As ridiculous as that statement is….hasn’t it already happened. Time to buy people.