Comments on: Let the Credit Crunch Begin http://www.socalbubble.com/2007/04/let-the-credit-crunch-begin.html Southern California is Experiencing a Real Estate Bubble like never before Fri, 09 Jan 2009 13:57:10 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Andrew McLaughlin http://www.socalbubble.com/2007/04/let-the-credit-crunch-begin.html/comment-page-1#comment-5053 Andrew McLaughlin Wed, 02 May 2007 19:53:31 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/2007/04/let-the-credit-crunch-begin.html#comment-5053 Excellent post! We discussed in our most recent podcast! Andrew http://www.InvestorReviewPodcast.com Excellent post! We discussed in our most recent podcast!

Andrew
http://www.InvestorReviewPodcast.com

]]> By: Chuck Ponzi http://www.socalbubble.com/2007/04/let-the-credit-crunch-begin.html/comment-page-1#comment-4977 Chuck Ponzi Mon, 30 Apr 2007 17:01:14 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/2007/04/let-the-credit-crunch-begin.html#comment-4977 One other thing: GS has long warned of deteriorating credit conditions and has tried to position themselves as vultures in the credit markets (my opinion only), so of all of the large IBs, these guys seem to be the most realistic. I don't think I would bet against them... at a 10x PE, and a growing pipeline of M&A and issuances... They may pull through less scathed than many others. They even predicted a recession later this year... not exactly dumb bulls. Chuck One other thing:

GS has long warned of deteriorating credit conditions and has tried to position themselves as vultures in the credit markets (my opinion only), so of all of the large IBs, these guys seem to be the most realistic. I don’t think I would bet against them… at a 10x PE, and a growing pipeline of M&A and issuances… They may pull through less scathed than many others.

They even predicted a recession later this year… not exactly dumb bulls.

Chuck

]]> By: Chuck Ponzi http://www.socalbubble.com/2007/04/let-the-credit-crunch-begin.html/comment-page-1#comment-4974 Chuck Ponzi Mon, 30 Apr 2007 16:55:38 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/2007/04/let-the-credit-crunch-begin.html#comment-4974 *****This is not investment Advice***** I bought LEH and GS back in '04 for 41.725 (split adjusted) and 94.90, respectively. I sold LEH for 80.85 some weeks ago. LEH is now at 76.19 I sold half of my position of GS for 201.86. GS is now at $223.50. I don't believe that GS has the exposure to loans like LEH does. That opinion may change quickly if needed and I may lighten my load further. I wouldn't bet further against GS, but LEH seems to be a decent put move. October puts seem like a good play, personally, if I were an options buyer (I'm not). One thing I have learned by the Nazcrash and subsequent housing bubble... never, and I mean never, underestimate the stupidity of the financial markets. They are very frequently completely irrational. And, I can say I've made a good amount of money on that irrationality. Chuck *****This is not investment Advice*****

I bought LEH and GS back in ‘04 for 41.725 (split adjusted) and 94.90, respectively.

I sold LEH for 80.85 some weeks ago. LEH is now at 76.19

I sold half of my position of GS for 201.86. GS is now at $223.50.

I don’t believe that GS has the exposure to loans like LEH does. That opinion may change quickly if needed and I may lighten my load further.

I wouldn’t bet further against GS, but LEH seems to be a decent put move. October puts seem like a good play, personally, if I were an options buyer (I’m not).

One thing I have learned by the Nazcrash and subsequent housing bubble… never, and I mean never, underestimate the stupidity of the financial markets. They are very frequently completely irrational. And, I can say I’ve made a good amount of money on that irrationality.

Chuck

]]> By: LAEF2 http://www.socalbubble.com/2007/04/let-the-credit-crunch-begin.html/comment-page-1#comment-4971 LAEF2 Mon, 30 Apr 2007 16:39:45 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/2007/04/let-the-credit-crunch-begin.html#comment-4971 I am considering buying a few bargain long shot puts on GS. If ifgured they would get mired in the liability from insurance companies/pension funds for misrepresentation of the risks and fraud? Any feelings on that? I am considering buying a few bargain long shot puts on GS. If ifgured they would get mired in the liability from insurance companies/pension funds for misrepresentation of the risks and fraud?

Any feelings on that?

]]>