We all have lives outside of the blogs, I’ll still keep coming back - I appreciate your hard work.

Based on:

1. Lessons gleaned from prior real estate cycles
2. Knock-on effects of removing monetary and housing-credit related stimulus.
3. Resets and neg-am blow-back.
4. Propensity for markets to achieve MAX PAIN.

It’s still just a guess. I think we’ll lose quite a bit of value on the books next year when the knock-on effects start to really pick up steam.

Confidence is not yet destroyed for the mortgage market, and that will likely happen late this year and early next year. People still believe it is subprime related, when fraud was rampant throughout it all, subprime just resets at least one year earlier than all others. That takes another 6 to 18 months for the full effect to be felt in the housing market.

If anything, that date would be pushed out, not shortened.

People have a tendency to underestimate the full effects of proximate causes. Think the Iraqi war. In and out in 18 months? I don’t think so. So far, the media is vastly underestimating the ability of the economy and general population to absorb the losses we are just now incurring.

Chuck Ponzi

Foreclosures are up and they sooner or later are starting to go up for auction and this process is just beginning. Once in auction then the vultures come in and bid low and low and sooner or later a house that sold for 600,000 will be auctioned off for 300,000 or less.

Then the stalled greedy seller who is asking 650,000 for his house will realize that the foreclosed home in his neighborhood just sold at auction for 300,000. Problem is that the more this happens these houses become comparisons and they will, they will, bring down the prices.

The buyer now thinks to himself, Joe is asking 650,000 and the house next door just sold at auction for 300,000, who is the fool?? Wait to buy this thing is comming.

Housing market is overpriced anybody buying in this market pays 4,000 or more a month not including taxes this is inflation but were told there is no inflation? 8 years ago people were paying 1,500 for mortgage now it’s over 4,000 and we don’t have inflation! The housing market is way over inflated!!

I’m now officially a senior, and I’ve seen several real estate cycles. For those enjoying affordable housing, this is not a doomsday scenario.

The high living and greedy will get burned, but their lifestyles and/or their gamblers’ mentality was bound to be their downfall.

Hang in there. While you’re busy just living, this will slowly pass.

I am curious how 2011 was picked as a bottom for this market. Was this based on mortgage renewal dates?

I´m in Cancun enjoying the occasional topless sunbather. Put down the axe and relax for a while.

Love the site and link to all the great econ sites and HBB too.

When all this went crazy it was great to go out and find useful information. Rare these days with all the spin.

Try to find information on anything and you are burried falacious crap from MSM and other bull.

Thanks for all the hard work. You can ease up because the crisis is now apparent to everyone and acelerating. We will all get burned by this but at least you helped keep a few people from making it worse.

LAEF2

I don’t think they understand the freight train that is coming down the tracks.

The simply fact is, if you can’t afford an indexed payment, you can’t afford the house.

Thank your for the insightful posts. I’ve followed you since your day’s on Ben’s blog.

Even though you’ve been on hiatus, you’re in my startup websites and will look forward to occasional posts.

Thanks for the update. I agree it is all over except for the wailing and knashing of teeth for the next 3-4 years.

Post as often as you want and I will keep checking back occasionally.