Worst Mortgage Default Statistics Since the Great Depression
Chuck Ponzi July 19th, 2007
From Reuters:
In the first quarter of this year, roughly one of every 41 subprime loans was entering foreclosure, and more than one of every six were delinquent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Those are the worst mortgage default statistics since the Great Depression. And it’s likely to get worse because the 2006 crop of mortgages, which will start resetting next year, were of a particularly low quality. Many carry prepayment penalties and could reset by as much as 5 percentage points when they do adjust.
Good thing it’s “contained”, right?
It’s odd, though - there were no subprime loans back in the Depression. I wonder if the reporter is comparing the current subprime default rate with the general rate from back then.
J. Ross…that is the fist thought that popped into my head too. Impressive statistic nonetheless
Smart investors from America and Overseas have been buying in Vancouver, BC. There are no mortgage problems here as real estate is poised to virtually never go down. Consistently ranked in the top 3 cities of the world, hosting the 2010 Olympics, limited land mass and everyone wants to live here. Prices are a steal at an average of 1.3 million on the west side. Average prices are forecasted 7% - 10% with no downturn in site for decades to come. The US housing market is melting down - time to cahs out quick and get into Vancouver BC still at Rock Bottom Prices
Weren’t they saying that about Orange County two years ago? We’ve found the Gary Watts of Canada.
See this? Orange County’s got 10% foreclosure rate ….
http://blogs.ocregister.com/la.....now_1.html
Vancouver does go down - in fact two major times already! Check your facts. No city is invincible.
Not really on the subject but I think it is funny that your name is Ponzi (like pyramid scheme). Good way to look at the housing market. It seems to be the next Russian Debt Crisis.
My take is we are looking at no price decreases or leveling off for minimum 50 years
Perhaps no housing and real estate market in North America is as healthy or contains as much potential as the city of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. For decades, the public at large viewed Vancouver as nothing more than a squalid mill town beseeched by rain 300 days of the year.
Expo ’86 changed all that forever. The city did an incredible job of cleaning up many industrial sites and the 10 solid days of nothing but beautiful sunshine demonstrated to the world that Vancouver was truly an unpolished diamond with incredible ocean and mountain views ready to be invested in.
Since 1986, real estate prices have been rising, and they haven’t really stopped. For those familiar with the Vancouver housing markets, it has become a bit of a running joke trying to figure out where the ceiling is for investment here. The short answer is that there might not be a ceiling at all, at least for another 5-10 years.
Vancouver was picked as the host for the 2010 Winter Olympics, and real estate investors are watching this date very closely. Much like the massive clean up and infrastructure improvements spawned the first major real estate boom in Vancouver in 1986, many experts believe that the exact same thing is going to happen with the 2010 games, but on a much larger scale. Combine this with poll after poll showing the quality of living in Vancouver is consistently in the top three in the world, and the fact that there are still real estate bargains to be had here when you compare it to other world class cities like San Francisco and New York, and you have one of the hottest real estate investment markets anywhere in the world.
The most optimistic perspectives on the Vancouver housing market is that the current surge will continue through the Olympics in 2010 and, thanks to the games, it will receive a renewed burst of energy that could carry it through 2015, or later. With this much potential, it is easy to see why Vancouver is the place to be for the next decade, plus.
Idiot. Everyone wants to live in crappy rainy Vancouver and deal with Frenchies.
That’s hilarious - there is a very small French population here
Way too many.
You are killing the mirth.
Enjoy the stock side show for today.
VNGD:
Thought you were joking. Seems not, so let’s do some math to see what a genius gazillionaire you’ll be when you retire. Let’s say your 1.3M “steal” of a house on the Far West Side appreciates “7-10% for decades to come.” We’ll split the difference: 8.5% for 20 years. Do you really think that in 2027 the average Vancouver buyer will be able to afford 6,645,660?
There aren’t enough rich American seafood lovers to float your boat that high.
Not to trash your city - it seems lovely and I’d love to check it out someday. But saying that anyplace “never goes down” shows you don’t know d*ck about real estate.
No price decreases for 50 years?
What type of BC bud are you smoking? Please share!
Have you seen the price reductions starting right now in Westwood Plateau, Coquitlam, because people have gotten greedy and they realize no one is buying? Or the 4500+ homes sitting in Vancouver’s Fraser Valley that has a 50% year of year increase in supply?
Vancouver is the place to be? I am in it right now and it is ok. However, it is not at the world class level yet.
When one considers the 18 days of consecutive rain in June, the homeless/drugs/panhandling situation of downtown, not to mention the soon to be look a like city view of downtown Miami (undergoing condo $$ flush) one’s head wakes up like a hookah coming off crack.
Vancouver is overpriced! The weather SUCKS. The politicians cannot even resolve basic housing issues. And for those not yet in the know, the entire city of Vancouver’s city hall public servants are on strike (7000+). This means that with the heat soon to be coming, the garbage that is starting to collect throughout the city wil be great for tourist photo ops.
I spent one week in San Jose, Cali two months ago. It was just as beautiful as Vancouver, if not better. Areas of Los Gatos were stunning.
The 2010 Games will be over in a period of two short rainy weeks in crappy Feb 2010. Then what? As most experts realize, gains due to 2010 have already been factored into Vancouver real estate.
Mr. VancouverNeverGoesDown, unless you are a real estate agent or have made a killing in the over-priced/greedy Vancouver housing market, please call a spade a spade and tell it like it is to our American brothers…
VANCOUVER IS HAS A FIRE SALE GOING ON!!
Two words - BOOMING ECONOMY - End of Story. There is no end in site - this is not a province or country mired in debt. The only naysayers are those who are choked they sat on the sidelines for so long. Fortunately Vancouver real estate tracks the price of gold amongst other things so we have a long long long way to go UP!
The municipal strike will be over in the next couple of weeks and i would not let a disruption in garbage pick up stop you from making fantastic riches. As a side note YES people will be able to afford 2 million dollar houses - not Joe Pipewrench and Sally Housecoat but the rich from China who are flocking to the Gateway to the Pacific. Here is a recent article. These stats are for the entire region. The key is to by on the West Side in beautiful Vanhatten BC (aka Vancouver - prices will outstrip Manhatten within 10 years)
Home sales on hot pace
The British Columbia housing market is remaining so hot it has even surprised top analysts at the B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA). “Our expectation was for a moderation of home sales in the second quarter,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. Yet, home sales rose 7 per cent April through
June reaching 32,535 units, which is near the record 32,981 units sold during the second quarter of 2005. “Homebuyers have been scrambling to take advantage of pre-approved mortgages that were negotiated before the recent hike in posted rates,” added Muir. The five-year conventional mortgage rate climbed 75 basis points to 7.24 per cent over the second quarter of 2007. The BCREA reports that residential sales volume on the Multiple Listing Service rose 20.4 per cent to $4.98 billion in June alone, compared to the same month last year. Residential unit sales increased 8 per cent to 11,175 units during the same period. The average MLS residential price hit $445,747, up 11.5 per cent from June 2006
Two words - CRAPPY INCOMES - end of story. The median household income in Vancouver is $55k. Good luck buying a studio condo with that!
As far as your “no mortgage problems” comment is concerned, I guess you haven’t seen Scotiabanks 100% mortgage, or VanCity’s “mixer mortgages” (where you share a mortgage with a second party!).
It’s amazing with all that’s gone on in US bubble markets that Vancouverites are still so clueless!
Crappy incomes? I don’t think so. That is reported income. A large percentage of incomes is overseas at 10% flat tax. You need to understand that an Open House in a poor part of town is going for $700,000 with over 100 people attending and bidding wars going on.
This is typical denial from “renters”. Check the facts and graphs. The FACT is US citizens who bought in Vancouver 7 years ago got great deals with a very strong dollar. Those same Americans who have sold are now buying their US dollars with close to par Canadian dollars.
Fact: When was the best time to buy Vancouver real estate - 3 years ago at last. When is the next best time to buy? - NOW!
You need to understand how booming an economy this is - how many people from all over the world are clambering to get in here. I agree that the US housing market is finished - but you still have time to sell and invest in Vancouver - this place ain’t ever going down PERIOD.
Vancouver - a place the Economist magazine calls “The World’s Most Desirable Place to Live”
LONDON, England (CNN) — Vancouver is the world’s most desirable place to live, according to a new survey, while Papua New Guinea’s Port Moresby is at the other end of the scale.
The Canadian city, nestled on the Pacific coast, was one of four locations in that country to rank at the top of the Economist Intelligence Unit’s livability survey, which looked at conditions in 127 cities.
Vancouver is a great city, no doubt about it. It is also a boom and bust city, very much like the major California cities. Vancouver boomed in the late 70’s, then crashed hard (40%) in 1981. Same thing happened with a boom in the late 80’s followed by a bust in the early 90’s.
History is getting ready to repeat itself again. Or is it “different this time”?
If people made a killing buying 7 years ago? Hey, great! Do you have a time machine?
Even if you’re right about Vancouver’s booming future, you’ll still get killed. 100 years ago people lost their shirts buying at the top in LA, Miami and Chicago. They were betting those would be metropolises in the 20th century.
The punchline? They were right.
They got killed anyway. What happens after a bubble.
???the only people who lost in miami LA etcetera were those that couldn’t hold - everyone else made a fortune
“Everyone else”? You mean the guys who waited 20 years to finally break even in the mid-20s, and then sold before it tanked for another 20 years? Yeah, they did great.
Wow. A canadian troll.
VancouverNeverGoesDown is either retarded and/or French. If you are neither go out and buy several more properties with some of the 100% LTV money still out there and post links here to prove your ownership.
If you really believe what you’re saying then you’d be an idiot not to buy more if it never does down in Vancouver.
Boys…wake up.. the place to be and invest is the old world…how many MB’s, BMW, Porsches etc do you see on the roads. How is it that the Euro is the strongest currency in just a few yrs. Even though they (Europeans) have their own little problems..overall they will lead into the future of world economies w/ China to follow.
And if you dare say anything out of insecurity about the European French..it’s because you’re easily intimidated or ignorant…and then definately outclassed..and I’m not French.
European cities are already expensive..but their citizens enjoy a very nice life…although lately the weather across the continent has changed for the worse…so blame George and check the weather channel!
Vancouver real estate never goes down. Get a life. The average house over 500,000 dollars is on the market for a minimum of 60 days right now and things arent expected to get better. We have the highest fuel prices in the country and out of control costs in everything if anyone want to come here all they need to do is look at the short form abreviation for the province of B.C. You know what B.C. stands for Bring Cash. If you think BC real estate is a deal then I have some prime land in florida to sell you as well.