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Archive for November, 2007

We’ve never seen an inventory overhang that big in California

Chuck Ponzi November 26th, 2007

I sometimes read in print what is not available online… so you’ll have to forgive me giving a reference to an article that is this month’s Fortune magazine.  It explains how prices will come down for construction in California:

In California, builders alone have 40,000 vacant houses and condos for sale.  “We’ve never seen an inventory overhang that big in California,” says Mike Castleman, CEO of Metrostudy, a firm that monitors builders’ projects nationwide.  “The builders are paying full freight on those houses in interest costs to the bank and taxes.  THey’ve got to move that inventory for whatever price they can get.”  In San Bernardino County, about 60 miles east of Los Angeles in the Inland Empire, Kent Phillips, president of Storm Western Development, is selling houses for $330,000 that last year went for $400,000.  “It’s dreadful,” Says Phillips.  “Last year we were selling four houses a month.  Now it’s one a month.  The end came just like turning off a water spigot.”  Despite the steep discounts, Phillips is still holding six houses that haven’t sold in a 16 home development he completed in January.

But Phillips sees an opening to revive the stricken business:  plunging construction costs.  He says that prices of finished lots, equipped with roads and utilities have fallen from around $135,000 to $75,000.  The cost of construction has gone down around 35%, from $85 to $54 per square foot.  “Developers can now sell their houses for at least 20% less than a year ago and still make decent margins,” says Phillips.

Any care to wager if housing prices can fall still a lot more?  The article reiterates the fundamentals of homebuying… its tie to rental rates and how that provides support to overall prices.  And, as I have long said, rental costs are historically HIGHER than homeownership costs due to the flexibility of being able to move.  This is supported historically and contextually in the article in Southern California and elsewhere.    I highly recommend anyone give a good read to the article.  It’s in the November 12, 2007 Edition of Fortune magazine, starting on pg 77.

Also, here are the projected Corrections for us here in Socal from June 2007 prices:

Los Angeles: -40.3%

Orange County:  -33.1%

Inland Empire: -31.6%

San Diego: -34.2%

These are very close to my projected correction of 28% from the summer of 2005.  (prices went up after that in medians)

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Who Am I?

Chuck Ponzi November 19th, 2007

While much more than a philosophical question, the answer and what you say more often reflects not just who you are, but the character you carry with you.

Since I moved my blog over from Blogspot, I have wanted to put pen to paper and give just enough background on the author of the blog to provide some dangerous information, but not enough to provide enough clues for any given person to guess who I am. In reality, there are only a couple of people who know who I am as a real person, and I’m just fine with that. I never intended the blog to be a springboard into fame, nor was I trying to make a business out of it (trust me, the pitiful revenue the blog generates wouldn’t provide more than an occasional lollipop it seems in Southern California.)

About Me

Well, my story is too long for a blog entry. I didn’t originate in Southern California, but rather the midwest, though I haven’t lived there for more than 15 years. I have lived in SoCal much of my adult life (after University studies), and have lived in North LA County, Central LA County, San Diego, and Orange County where I currently reside with my wife and 2 kids. I studied Accounting and Information Systems and have a Bachelor’s Degree from one of the top schools in the US (can’t give too many details). I also earned an MBA since being in California in the past few years. I am in my 30’s and have also lived in diverse places such as Germany, DC, Utah, and Hawaii and I speak 2 languages fluently This has given me a unique perspective on language and how it reflects and changes our attitudes about life and surroundings; a window into our social makeup.

My wife… I don’t talk about her much, but it only seems fitting to give her a worthy run through. She is the most important person in my life, and so therefore deserves a place on this blog; not in name, but because she has supported me in all that I have done, even sacrificing personal beliefs and time for our family’s better good. My wife grew up in the intermountain west, and holds a Master’s Degree as. She speaks 2 languages fluently as well (not the same as mine, but she is teaching me bits and pieces of hers) and is an entrepreneur as well as stay at home mom. She truly is amazing; I got very lucky. She has lived in all of the same places in California that I have.

With that said, I started thinking about writing a blog in early 2004, although it took me nearly a year to put that plan into conception. In truth, I thought homes were overpriced already in late 2002 and early 2003. By mid 2004, it had become unbearable, and since I was itching to move onto another company, I convinced my wife in the Summer of 2004 that housing was overvalued and we had better sell our place; even before I had another job. Our place sold in exactly 3 days for a couple percent over asking price, and more than double what I had paid for it a few years earlier. It was insane. We even had one bid more than 20k above that, but at 100% financing. We chose the more prudent buyer because we feared not closing in time. It’s funny in hindsight. Housing Bubbles take years to pop.

Over the next 6 months, we resituated ourselves, moving closer to LA and taking a job in Beverly Hills. It was a nice move, but we both knew it was only temporary. It was during this time that I first started the socalbubble.blogspot.com blog. My primary inspiration was Rich Toscano, of www.piggington.com fame. I had no desire to be known, and only told a few people about the blog. I was fine to be anonymous, because, frankly, real estate had become a religion to most of the people we knew. It was as if I was attempting to hoist their savior up on a cross when I dared to even consider that housing had ever fallen in value in the past, or that it could ever fall in the future. “At worst,” one friend assured me, “it will only go up by 10% per year. That would be a terrible year.” Conceding defeat of trying to warn those close to me, and finding that noone wanted to know the inconvenient truth, I started a blog to just spill out my feelings and try to put things in context in my life. At first, the only visitors were there to ridicule me. Some sent me harassing emails, some just quietly told me how stupid I was and left. Either way, it seemed that there were only a few out there who would believe that there was a bubble, or that it would ever burst. I read Patrick.net, Piggington, and The Housing Bubble Blog daily and scoured news stories to try to piece together what would happen; I read historical economics treatises; I pored over more historical economic data than I care to admit. I was convinced, but noone else was. At times, I thought I might be going crazy myself. Noone I met would agree with what I thought was self-evident. Most people who should have known better just ignored what was going on.

It only took time. I changed my name from John Doe (my old screen name) to Chuck Ponzi when I moved to my own hosting and domain, to pay homage to the man who defined our current economic system (with stamps, no less).

Still, this was supposed to be about me.

What lies ahead for Chuck Ponzi? Even I don’t know. Will I buy again in Southern California? Who knows?; I may move before that happens, but an opportunity may present itself in the future too. Either way, moving has been both about good and bad. While many of the families in our age group that we have known in SoCal have since moved out of state or are planning to do so in the next year, we have remained noncommital to our future as Californicators.

I guess we represent much of what we thought California was, middle class families committed to our children’s future and our own personal responsibility. It is perhaps fitting that we are a dying breed here in California. Even if we leave, in a few years, there will be another group of people ready to take our place. I hope them much more success than we have had in living the American Dream. We have found that the price for that dream was much more than we were willing to give. And, for many trying to buy it; have found that it was much more a personal nightmare than the dream they (with their commissioned agent and loan broker) dreamt of. I could in some ways feel justified that I did what I could to warn, but rather, I feel saddened that most had no idea what was about to happen. Sometimes, when I’m feeling down, I walk around my neighborhood and see the Hummers, Mercedes and Lexuses, and then I’m not sad anymore. At least everyone got awesome rides.

So, by definition, who am I?

I am Chuck Ponzi. Welcome to Southern California.

My contact information can be found here.

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Citi: Cows gone, close barn door

Chuck Ponzi November 2nd, 2007

Thanks to the ML Implode-O-Meter for this gem that I previously missed:

Urgent Policy Notification:

California Purchase Money Business

Effective Wednesday, October 31st 2007 Citi Home Equity will discontinue lending on all Purchase Money transactions for properties in California.

Impact to pipeline applications:

  • California Purchase Money applications that have received Conditional Approval or Final Approval will be honored
  • California Purchase Money applications that have not received any level of approval and are in process will be declined.
  • Operations will actively work the list of impacted applications

All other policies will continue to apply.

Note: Until our website is updated, brokers will have the ability to submit applications for Purchase Money transactions in California. These applications will be declined.

This Policy only affects applications where the subject property state is California.

Pretty much speaks for itself. How many others will be shutting off funding for buying in California? Kinda makes sense when sales have already fallen so much there isn’t much business here anyway.

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Please, listen to Ron Paul, this is what America wants:

Chuck Ponzi November 1st, 2007

Noninterventionist Foreign Policy,
Monetary Prudence,
Fix Social Programs,
what else do you need?

When the Contrarians are the Concordant

Chuck Ponzi November 1st, 2007

My apologies to regular readers.  A couple of good posts are coming down the pike that take more than a week to prepare.  In the meantime, we’ll take a brief look at the changing view of mortgage lending and the housing bubble.  First, to preface, this is something which many know, but some have forgotten.  Just one year ago, the housing bubble was believed to be a fabrication, dreamed up by some insane bloggers who got a hold of their daddy’s credit card and were able to buy a domain and start a wordpress blog… or more insidious, a free blogger on Google’s blogspot domain.

With some otherworldly charts that only quoted the past 10 years, they all showed how housing was supposedly “overpriced”, and that the trend was not just unsustainable, but unstable at best, and could lead to disastrous consequences.  These views were largely ridiculed and scoffed at by some of the best known commentators on the housing market.  In fact, in some ways, it was surprising that people like David Lereah or Gary Watts were even answering questions about the “Housing Bubble”, for they assured us all it never existed, and its believe was surely caused by bad upbringing, or education to underachievers who could barely tie their shoes.

Consider that as a backdrop for an article written on the Mortgage News Daily by Matthew Graham.

People talk about the real estate boom that began around 2001 and ended about mid 2006. People and “experts” talk about the boom as if it’s something that’s happened before. “There have been up times and down times” they say. “This is just another boom.” Those “experts” are wrong. There has never been a period like this. We have just experienced the largest housing boom in history. Might there be another one that supersedes it in the future? Possibly, but I would argue that the current time period will serve as a sobering lesson for us in the future. I would argue, this is as big as it gets. And it’s not because I have the experience to have lived through previous ups and downs. It’s not because I have decades of experience tracking these issues (because I don’t). It’s not because I have the foresight to predict the future of the markets. It is due to a simple truth: this “boom” is so much more inflated than any previous booms that it will stand as an obvious outlier in historical home price data. That is to say, compared to other upturns and downturns, the current boom is a much much larger digression from the mean than we have ever seen.

That this view is now widely held is self-evident.  Why, then, did it take so long for the belief to become widely accepted?

The simple answer, because it does.  Consider the following quote from Malcolm Gladwell, the author of “Tipping Point”:

The word “Tipping Point”, for example, comes from the world of epidemiology. It’s the name given to that moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It’s the boiling point. It’s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards.

It just took that long.  Now everybody knows it except David Lereah, Lawrence Yun, and of course, Gary Watts.  At some point, even they will need to concede.  At that point, it’ll be time to look for the next one, maybe just not as big.  Until then, there is a lot more pain.  More write offs, more defaults, and more price declines.  Commensurate with the boom, this bust will be the biggest ever seen.  Some just haven’t recognized it yet.

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