Chuck Ponzi December 18th, 2007

With a quick read through of the Yahoo news the other day, you’ll find out that a real estate trade group (NAR) is actually predicting a rosier 2008 than previously (as if something had improved over the past few months). Indeed, things have considerably worsened, as is evidenced by San Diego’s more than 12 months of inventory along with price per square foot down almost 20%.

I also provided an example in my own neighborhood, a supposedly impenetrable fortress of prices in South Orange County. The featured property is now currently listed at 584,900, 21% off of its last purchase price (27% of it’s current asking price, or in other words, would have to appreciate 27% to reach it’s last price, or about 5 years of average SoCal appreciation).

We have erased 5 years of gains in the last 2. No wonder we are seeing more and more disinformation from the group that we are about to highlight. Is it any wonder that the happy talk comes from none other than our favorite pinata, the National Association of Realtors. How anyone would take them seriously after so many botch-jobs, is beyond me. One can only take so much stupidity before disgust sets in.

Nevertheless, it’ll be nice if someone later takes them to task for their intentional misleading. As a side note, I remember a recent article that stated that the real estate industry should form a self-regulating group and the NAR was proposed as the starting point… ha ha ha. Consider the following from their glowing 2008 forecast:

Nevertheless, the Realtors group’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, gave a positive outlook for job growth and the replacement of subprime lenders to borrowers with weak credit with government-backed loans as reasons for the improved outlook.

“Despite over-exaggerated negative coverage on the housing conditions, many local markets are actually seeing price increases,” Yun said at a press briefing. “Mortgage availability is improving.”

In my mind’s eye, I can see Nelson pointing, and laughing his scornful Ha Ha.

I was trying some way to find a positive spin on Yun’s comments, but I have failed. I cannot imagine a group that cares less about their general perception over self-induced delusion.

I only wonder at what point those kinds of thoughts should be considered criminal.  Serial bottom-calling by trade groups is not allowed in other free markets, causing investor losses.  Why should it be tolerated in the NAR?  Perhaps the RICO act could be extended enough into this kind of activity.  It’d be good to see Lawrence Yun or David Lereah take a perp walk for those they injured.

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