Comments on: How smart is Chuck Ponzi in Bubble Timing?

By: Bob Martin

Bob Martin — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 07:24:18 +0000

I think Fluctuations in prices are also driven by supply and demand, which in turn are determined to a large extent on investor psychology. Seeing a stock rise in price may cause investors to jump on the bandwagon and this rush to buy drives the price even faster. A falling price can have the same effect. These are short term fluctuations. prices tend to normalize after such runs. Hence, to predict possible upturns or downturns in the stock markets, it becomes imperative to track and analyze deal information.

By: DM

DM — Fri, 25 Jan 2008 05:32:02 +0000

I agree with you that renting was the right move.

I was fortunate enough to sell in June 2006 – within a couple months of the peak in my price range in Orange County. Between mortgage, property taxes, and insurance, I estimated that the people who bought my house are paying $5000/month for a 1500 sf home that’s 50 years old. In the meantime, I am paying less than $3000/month for a 2200 sf, 25-year-old home in a much nicer area – and I don’t have to pay for maintenance or repairs. Plus, I’m not losing equity and the interest on the cash from the home pays for the majority of the rent.

I also believe, as you’re example has shown, that it will be easier to survive this economical storm if we are not anchored down by our home.

I wish to congratulate you for having the strength and conviction to follow your own beliefs and instincts instead of following the herd to the slaughter.

By: LAEF2

LAEF2 — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 00:43:42 +0000

I’m wondering if the call to raise rates has gone through?

I feel like Bernake is getting damaged by all the critics and might get ousted as Fed chair.

Seems like there is a posibility of a rate increase.

What would that do to the housing/stock market?

By: Expat

Expat — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 05:05:30 +0000

Affordability. That is the end of the tale. If you can’t afford your house you will lose it: you sell into the bubble and make money, you sell at a loss, or you get foreclosed. That’s it.

If you bought your house at a reasonable level of income (2.5 times) and did not use it as an ATM, then you are fine. If you paid more, you are probably in trouble. If you paid 2.5 times and withdrew “equity” and blew the cash on Gummy Bears and plasma tv’s you are screwed.

If you can afford your house and don’t want to sell, pick a value. Tell your friends it’s worth 100 million. Who cares? If you need to sell, good luck. The crash has not even begun. Borrowers can’t get loans or if they can, banks won’t lend more than reasonable, historical amounts (a mortgage for a house which costs 2.5 times income). If you live amongst millionaires your house is worth millions (maybe). If you live amongst bus drivers, you ain’t so lucky

By: Chuck Ponzi

Chuck Ponzi — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 03:11:00 +0000

Picked several good stocks.

More importantly, I believe that successful investing is just as much about what you DON’T buy. Buying stuff that is overhyped is the biggest mistake.

This year, I sold LEH at 89. I sold GS at 230 and 215, IIRC. Those positions are closed out completely. I also sold ETFC in 2006. I believe I sold at 15. I am completely out of financial at this point. I only have a half-position in insurance that’s even remotely related. I like biotech a lot.

Chuck Ponzi

By: Ben

Ben — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 23:38:22 +0000

Congratulation’s on all of your success! I bought in 2004, being a little younger and dumber then I am now (1st home) in San Jose. So far so good, can’t complain much… yet.. but then again the bay area is crazy.

This is entirely off topic, but I’m curious about your 22 percent portfolio return this past year. Any insights or charitable hints as to how you did it? I’m not looking for specifics just something like “lucky fund choices” or “picked a good stock” or “bought an oil compnay,” etc. Thanks for your site and insights.