Orange County Down 20% in one Year – It’s in the Bag!
Chuck Ponzi April 16th, 2008
Dataquick gives us the skinny on Socal housing median prices:
All homes
Mar-07
Mar-08
%Chng
Mar-07
Mar-08
%Chng
Los Angeles
8,353
4,263
-49.0%
$540,000
$440,000
-18.50%
Orange
3,130
1,663
-46.9%
$629,000
$506,000
-19.60%
Riverside
3,680
2,691
-26.9%
$420,000
$306,250
-27.10%
San Bernardino
2,476
1,534
-38.0%
$369,000
$265,000
-28.20%
San Diego
3,218
2,108
-34.5%
$490,000
$395,000
-19.40%
Ventura
999
549
-45.0%
$566,750
$430,000
-24.10%
SoCal
21,856
12,808
-41.4%
$505,000
$385,000
-23.80%
I’m sure some can appreciate how this is actually greater than the 17% “in the bag” that Gary Watts promised us in 2006 in reverse. After an already negative appreciation in 07 and depreciation on the way down is the inverse (more $ on the downside than on the upside per percent), prices are easily back to 2005 prices in the median, and 2004 and 2003 pricing for what is actually selling. The crash is continuing.
Hey, Gary is only off by 35% from his prediction. No big deal…unless your a SoCal HomeDebtor that is. Or Realtor, or Mortgage Broker, or Bear Stearns employee (soon to be former).
This is why no one the REIC has any credibility left. The MSM has more or less stopped relying on them.
2003 prices puts us back into ratio with current rents in SoCal. I still don’t see rents coming down in downtown Valencia. With skyrocketing energy costs, runaway inflation, and more renters on the market who don’t qualify for loans, I don’t see how there can be downward pressure on rents.
morpheus,
I can’t say for Valencia, each market is different, but a good friend of mine works for the Irvine company apartments division, and he has said that without equivocation, rents are down in OC. IC is the largest landholder and income property holder in OC, and I believe Southern California too.
I can’t imagine that SCV would be too far behind. Perhaps you need to get your negotiating hat on.
Anecdotally, there are a lot of people moving out of Socal, and for all of the reasons you mentioned, people have less money, not more to spend on things like rent.
Chuck
When will the pain stop?
Is that rhetorical?
If you’re serious, it depends on what you mean by pain. When will prices stop falling? Or, when will foreclosures stop being a significant part of the local housing market? Or, when will the recession be over?
a lot of people would be willing to give a swag to a number of those, but I’m not sure how close they’d be to reality.
Chuck
Gary Watts is a douche.
We’re already further off from peak than people would believe. 1 year, 20%. And people still think I’m crazy for saying 50%+ off of peak is possible.
Nobody ever listens. EVER. Unless, of course, it’s something they want to hear.
Key thing about the current real estate situation…..No more free/no down payment loans which was the key driver during the real estate boom we experienced. Now with the standard 10%-20% down payments, this will put a real crush on any market, especially when your trying to find the buyers with $100,000+ to get their skin in the game. Will not happen, so futher price drops will continue as banks will soon learn and feel the pain of over extending themselves during the past years. I did get out this past weekend just to see what was going on only to find 4 of the 5 homes were foreclosure or people who were at the end of their rope and needing to sell…. which was near the purchase price of 2005 and well over the market area. We’ll see futher declines and I really question the OC Register’s recent data track holding @ $500,000 for the past few weeks…. let’s see what they report this weekend.
I’m curious, as I’m sure many of you are, to see where the bottom of the So Cal Market really is. Does the current glut of inventory have the same effect as it does in other areas of the country? What chance does the So Cal Market have to rebound, compared to markets like San Diego and Austin?
My point being, things are pretty bad in most parts, relatively speaking, how far has So Cal really fallen? Is there data out there breaks the statistics down relatively?
hey Chuck, Can you tell me when home prices in Glendale, CA and Burbank, CA will Fall to 04 prices.
Housing prices are still high looking at the listings, the median price doesn’t mean prices have gone down since it doesn’t tell us what sold, just how much. The properties that are selling now are the lower end that is the reason for the decline in the median, this doesn’t indicate that prices fell.
Chuck, I came over from the “Starbucks Blames Losses on Declining Housing Market” post. And I’d like to add: I paid $4 for a loaf of bread this morning at the store. Blame the hous…oh, never mind.
Here one to look at: 55 Dartmouth LN Coto De Caza, CA 92679
Listing Price History
Date Price Oct 02, 2007 $850,000
Oct 31, 2007 $800,000
Nov 08, 2007 $790,000
Nov 13, 2007 $775,000
Nov 21, 2007 $749,000
Nov 27, 2007 $724,900
Dec 08, 2007 $714,900
Jan 03, 2008 $689,900
Jan 16, 2008 $669,000
Jan 18, 2008 $599,900
Jan 19, 2008 $550,000
Feb 13, 2008 $614,900
Mar 21, 2008 $615,000
Mar 28, 2008 $599,000
Apr 08, 2008 $569,000
Apr 10, 2008 $549,000
Apr 16, 2008 $560,000
hahahahahahah…love it!
I was looking at my MLS website last night. I have started keeping track of number of houses for sale in each area…Valley Village, No Ho, Sherman Oaks, etc…and the median prices. There is a little bubble on this website for each area and it has that info right there. I started writing it down at the beginning of April. So in ONE month here are some changes:
Place # Homes 4 sale 4/7-4/28 Median 4/7-4/28
Van NuysE 230—–311 424,900-409,900
Sherman Oaks 444——496 699,00-699,000
Studio City 294——317 799,900-779,900
No Hollywood 601——644 465,00-450,000
Valley Village 118—–135 599,900-599,000
This is in ONE month. Look at the Sherman Oaks idiots! Since they are remaining greedy as hell, they have the most and they are not moving at all. I can’t wait until that changes. Once it goes they’ll all have to get real. Valley Glen might as well be Sherman Oaks.
I rent a house in Sherman Oaks. The sellers in S.O. remind me of the sellers in Santa Monica, they both have the same unrealistic mentality that their property price should only go one way.
But the S.O. sellers need to realize one very important difference… Sherman Oaks has no beach!!!
So is it time to buy now or wait? How much longer? How’s the IE?
Oh yeah, real estate in SoCal neeeeeeever goes goes down. Neeeeever. Nope, doesn’t happen here! Move along, nothing to see…
Neeeeeever goes down….
If you’re serious, it depends on what you mean by pain. When will prices stop falling? Or, when will foreclosures stop being a significant part of the local housing market? Or, when will the recession be over?
a lot of people would be willing to give a swag to a number of those, but I’m not sure how close they’d be to reality.
Orange County may be hurting and we are too but not quite as bad. Pretty darn exciting– isn’t it? No, not really, not at all. In 2007 Brentwood had six residential property foreclosures. Santa Monica 90402 had zero foreclosures. Santa Monica 90403 had three, 90404 had five, 90405 had eight and 90401 had one.
In other Westside neighborhoods such as Playa Del Rey, there were four foreclosures in 2007. In Marina Del Rey there were seven and in Venice there were three. The neighborhoods of Westwood and Mar Vista/Palms were a little less fortunate. Westwood had fourteen foreclosures and Mar Vista had seventeen. Beverly Hills has remained strong with only four foreclosures.
Read more at my Santa Monica Real Estate Web-site:
Santa Monica Real Estate
Check Irvine Bubble Here
http://www.IrvineMarket.com