Comments on: The long silence http://www.socalbubble.com/2008/06/the-long-silence.html Southern California is Experiencing a Real Estate Bubble like never before Mon, 01 Dec 2008 17:45:11 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: California Kid http://www.socalbubble.com/2008/06/the-long-silence.html#comment-62404 California Kid Sat, 14 Jun 2008 04:45:07 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/2008/06/the-long-silence.html#comment-62404 Chuckie... glad to see ya back at the site. I believe we all consider this a little break from the action that occurred during the past year. Now that the market is experiencing the downturn most of us had predicted, I guess it's a way for us to sit back and reflect on what has developed and what lies ahead. Just learned that the house I sold several years ago is heading to foreclosure and on the market now @ about $80,000 over the comps with a lot of property taxes that have gone unpaid.... also, my wife just spoke with a family this week through our kids sports team that has had their house on the market since the first of the year with not one offer..... they bought back in the early 90's and sitting on close to $600,000 in equity (actual and not what they think their due) and not willing to budge as they feel they are sitting in the drivers seat????? Now waiting for the silent inventory of foreclosed properties to begin the last spike of this real estate death coffin... waiting as long as needed to make my offer (G Watt pent up demand for buying is a joke). Chuckie… glad to see ya back at the site. I believe we all consider this a little break from the action that occurred during the past year. Now that the market is experiencing the downturn most of us had predicted, I guess it’s a way for us to sit back and reflect on what has developed and what lies ahead. Just learned that the house I sold several years ago is heading to foreclosure and on the market now @ about $80,000 over the comps with a lot of property taxes that have gone unpaid…. also, my wife just spoke with a family this week through our kids sports team that has had their house on the market since the first of the year with not one offer….. they bought back in the early 90’s and sitting on close to $600,000 in equity (actual and not what they think their due) and not willing to budge as they feel they are sitting in the drivers seat????? Now waiting for the silent inventory of foreclosed properties to begin the last spike of this real estate death coffin… waiting as long as needed to make my offer (G Watt pent up demand for buying is a joke).

]]> By: IErenter http://www.socalbubble.com/2008/06/the-long-silence.html#comment-62374 IErenter Fri, 13 Jun 2008 18:21:36 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/2008/06/the-long-silence.html#comment-62374 Chuck I am not sure if you really understand how much you have helped so many people understand about the current situation that we are in. I am sure that you are not making much money doing this. But I would like to think that it gives you a good feeling knowing that you are helping others understand. Forget about those that think otherwise. Please just keep on writing as often as you could. I would be reading your blog as long as you write. Thank you for your blog Calvin Chuck

I am not sure if you really understand how much you have helped so many people understand about the current situation that we are in. I am sure that you are not making much money doing this. But I would like to think that it gives you a good feeling knowing that you are helping others understand. Forget about those that think otherwise. Please just keep on writing as often as you could. I would be reading your blog as long as you write. Thank you for your blog

Calvin

]]> By: Chuck Ponzi http://www.socalbubble.com/2008/06/the-long-silence.html#comment-62356 Chuck Ponzi Fri, 13 Jun 2008 07:52:26 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/2008/06/the-long-silence.html#comment-62356 Thanks, James, I pretty much trounce every money manager that I have tracked. I'm not a trader... so it's not really a "job" other than to stay informed and look for fundamental and technical information to enter and exit investments. That takes more time than some assume. I can create more value in an hour of research than an hour of blogging. In probably another 5 or 10 years, if my success continues, I will probably have enough to quit my day job... and perhaps I will start a fund of my own at that time. I've tossed the idea around some to some of the people I know with money, but no takers yet. In the meantime, my day job provides good pay and benefits, but it doesn't mean I'm going to do it for the rest of my life. I have more than one poker in the fire at all times. It's possible that my wife's online business could completely eclipse my earnings in a few years and then it'll all be moot anyway. It's possible that our investments will produce enough income, and it's possible that I'll progress enough in my career to take care of any eventualities. Unfortunately, blogging will likely never replace my income at the level of the other 3, so it takes 4th chair to my other income producing pursuits. I was right about the housing blog, and I let everyone know far in advance... sometimes I wonder what else there is to say, I'm not making enough to make it worth my time, so I should just close it down and focus my energy on other pursuits that are more lucrative. It has been nostalgia more than anything that has kept me writing. I'm really not very good at it. Chuck Ponzi Thanks, James,

I pretty much trounce every money manager that I have tracked. I’m not a trader… so it’s not really a “job” other than to stay informed and look for fundamental and technical information to enter and exit investments. That takes more time than some assume. I can create more value in an hour of research than an hour of blogging.

In probably another 5 or 10 years, if my success continues, I will probably have enough to quit my day job… and perhaps I will start a fund of my own at that time. I’ve tossed the idea around some to some of the people I know with money, but no takers yet. In the meantime, my day job provides good pay and benefits, but it doesn’t mean I’m going to do it for the rest of my life.

I have more than one poker in the fire at all times. It’s possible that my wife’s online business could completely eclipse my earnings in a few years and then it’ll all be moot anyway. It’s possible that our investments will produce enough income, and it’s possible that I’ll progress enough in my career to take care of any eventualities.

Unfortunately, blogging will likely never replace my income at the level of the other 3, so it takes 4th chair to my other income producing pursuits. I was right about the housing blog, and I let everyone know far in advance… sometimes I wonder what else there is to say, I’m not making enough to make it worth my time, so I should just close it down and focus my energy on other pursuits that are more lucrative. It has been nostalgia more than anything that has kept me writing. I’m really not very good at it.

Chuck Ponzi

]]> By: Jason http://www.socalbubble.com/2008/06/the-long-silence.html#comment-62339 Jason Fri, 13 Jun 2008 01:19:36 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/2008/06/the-long-silence.html#comment-62339 I enjoy your blog and wish you would post more. It is definitely a skill of yours that only a few talented people possess. That being said, you said you have a 'side job' -- investing, one of the distractions that keeps you from blogging more. It is likely an inefficient distraction, though, more for your entertainment, than to your benefit. i.e. If you were truly "good" (as measured by industry standards) at your side job, it'd be your real / day job, and then you'd have more time to blog & concentrate on the real estate implosion. How many people do you know who practice cardiovascular surgery successfully "on the side"? Or stop by an Angel's game and successfully get base hits "on the side"? No one, of course. Why do you think hedge fund managers are so well paid? Too many people think they are professional "side job" traders / investors, when their actual track records demonstrate otherwise, which is why they still have day jobs. That is great, my point is perhaps stick to what you really know, and what you are best at, and you'd likely have more time on your hands, and we'd likely have our dear blogger around more often. I enjoy your blog and wish you would post more. It is definitely a skill of yours that only a few talented people possess. That being said, you said you have a ’side job’ — investing, one of the distractions that keeps you from blogging more. It is likely an inefficient distraction, though, more for your entertainment, than to your benefit. i.e. If you were truly “good” (as measured by industry standards) at your side job, it’d be your real / day job, and then you’d have more time to blog & concentrate on the real estate implosion. How many people do you know who practice cardiovascular surgery successfully “on the side”? Or stop by an Angel’s game and successfully get base hits “on the side”? No one, of course. Why do you think hedge fund managers are so well paid? Too many people think they are professional “side job” traders / investors, when their actual track records demonstrate otherwise, which is why they still have day jobs. That is great, my point is perhaps stick to what you really know, and what you are best at, and you’d likely have more time on your hands, and we’d likely have our dear blogger around more often.

]]> By: kevin http://www.socalbubble.com/2008/06/the-long-silence.html#comment-62338 kevin Fri, 13 Jun 2008 01:16:30 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/2008/06/the-long-silence.html#comment-62338 i am seeing a lot of homes in the long beach and huntington beach area that have been on the market for over a year, get sold. This is the home buying season and many believe the bottom is here and so I attribute it to that. Myself, I'll wait at least until after the season to take advantage of the desperate sellers, if not until late-2009. My uncle is a CPA and believes that 2009 will be worse than 2008 and we'll see another 10-20% drop. His wife, my aunt, is a realtor and believes now is a great time to buy/sell...when isn't it? i am seeing a lot of homes in the long beach and huntington beach area that have been on the market for over a year, get sold. This is the home buying season and many believe the bottom is here and so I attribute it to that. Myself, I’ll wait at least until after the season to take advantage of the desperate sellers, if not until late-2009.

My uncle is a CPA and believes that 2009 will be worse than 2008 and we’ll see another 10-20% drop. His wife, my aunt, is a realtor and believes now is a great time to buy/sell…when isn’t it?

]]> By: Steve in AK http://www.socalbubble.com/2008/06/the-long-silence.html#comment-62273 Steve in AK Thu, 12 Jun 2008 05:34:48 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/2008/06/the-long-silence.html#comment-62273 Glad to see you have not abandoned this blog. This is one of my favorites, you are passionate about the fate of SoCal. I am originally from Huntington Beach and sat and watched while all of my middle class family got priced of that area after 3 generations. I saw this writing on the wall a long time ago as the home prices skyrocketed briefly in 1998 and the average incomes were flat. Yet everyone I knew there thought they were going to get rich and acted rich even though their "wealth" started coming the hard working HELOC. They would not like this blog, but I am glad I have some support to back the disagreements Glad to see you have not abandoned this blog. This is one of my favorites, you are passionate about the fate of SoCal. I am originally from Huntington Beach and sat and watched while all of my middle class family got priced of that area after 3 generations. I saw this writing on the wall a long time ago as the home prices skyrocketed briefly in 1998 and the average incomes were flat. Yet everyone I knew there thought they were going to get rich and acted rich even though their “wealth” started coming the hard working HELOC.

They would not like this blog, but I am glad I have some support to back the disagreements

]]>