If you want to see something really interesting, check out Lawrence Yun talking about something that bloggers caught onto long before the NAR did, shadow inventory… when sales come back, so do sellers. whocoodanode?
In addition, the most startling revelation (which bypassed the host’s attention) was Larry the Liar’s admission that Realtors are bypassing entering direct sales into the MLS.
So, now that the MLS is no longer valid as a data collection tool, what is the next step? Maybe the NAR will offer an open MLS?
I’m going to start periodically looking back at the past 3 years since the blog was started at some of the predictions. Most will be Southern California related, but other outstanding areas will also be called out.
The first of such series comes to us from Naples, Fl. As expected, this one comes from the super-optimistic realtor via Naples News from November 19 2006.
Joe Ballarino, a Realtor with Amerivest, said except for specific instances, home prices are going “sideways” and he expects them to continue doing so.
Market generalizations are usually off base, he said.
“I am on a kick of discrediting market averages,” Ballarino said. “Pricing is so localized, each property has to be valued separately.”
His view of the market is that buyers already are beginning to come back.
“I think (studies) are off the mark,” he said. “At most I can see prices going down maybe 5 percent in some cases but I don’t see (a) 14 percent (decline) — not in the overall market.”
Call it what you will, but when she starts handing out MY MONEY to criminals, I get kinda ticked. This is the worst kind of bailout. Performed in the shadows. No regulatory or congressional oversight. Renegade social experimentation with my money (since the FDIC will not remain properly capitalized through this downturn) has turned an otherwise crappy but benign bank closing into the New Deal II.
Under the IndyMac Federal program, eligible mortgages would be modified into sustainable mortgages permanently capped at the current Freddie Mac survey rate for conforming mortgages (now about 6.5%). Modifications would be designed to achieve sustainable payments at a 38 percent debt-to-income (DTI) ratio of principal, interest, taxes and insurance. To reach this metric for affordable payments, modifications could adopt a combination of interest rate reductions, extended amortization, and principal forbearance.
This stinks to high heaven. Makes FEDUPUSA’s message that much more real. I’m just sick of this. If I thought it would do any good, I’d be marching on Washington right now. This is where politics and economics merge. This country is screwed.
An often discussed topic here has always been the high cost of living in California versus the benefits it presents. I have often thought about moving out of state, anyone else entertaining the idea?
Now that the meltdown is in full force, are there still many reasons for leaving?
Here are a couple I can come up with:
1. Even with prices falling +30%, Southern California is still one of the more expensive places to live in the US.
2. The terrible economy means fewer jobs, the reason most of us came here in the first place.
3. Freeways are still clogged
4. Taxes are still high.
5. The state is undergoing a fiscal crisis, almost assured to mean even higher taxes
6. Maybe it’s my perception, but violent crime seems to be on the uptick
7. We still have the worst school system in the country.
8. Prop 13 ensures the rich a great tax subsidy.
On the flipside, I can think of some reasons to stay:
1. Cali is probably going to come back and have more jobs…
2. You can get a double double protien style with no onion pretty much any time, any where.
3. Housing prices are falling faster than the OC register and Lansner can report that we’ve hit a bottom.
4. The weather, you know. It’s not that bad.
5. Where else can you work for the state and get paid minimum wage?
Now that the housing bailout bill has been approved by congress and signed into law by the political pandering president, we have all agreed to accept the cold hard reality of covering someone else’s bad decisions and poor choices with our own hard work, sweat, and good choices. Indeed, it seems that excelling or even being of a marginally higher intellect than say, a brain slug is fit to be yoked and saddled with someone else’s mediocrity in this new era of America. It is the future of “no child left behind”, or as Brett Arends of the Wall Street Journal puts it, the Condo Flippers Do Over Act.
I remember a story that I read in grade school, Anthem by Ayn Rand. It was the first Ayn Rand book I ever read, and the only one I enjoyed. But, even in my youth, the message was chilling. The story was one of a man with extraordinary talent and physical prowess who lived in a society that believed in equality to an extreme. This society would place handicaps on those who could could see well, think better, or even walk better to the point that noone was better than anyone else in any way. Ironically, the main character I never in my life imagined that this kind of society would exist, much less under a republican president. However, it seems we have become this society:
Our name is Equality 7-2521, as it is written on the iron bracelet which all men wear on their left wrists with their names upon it. We are twenty-one years old. We are six feet tall, and this is a burden, for there are not many men who are six feet tall. Ever have the Teachers and the Leaders pointed to us and frowned and said: “There is evil in your bones, Equality 7-2521, for your body has grown beyond the bodies of your brothers.” But we cannot change our bones nor our body.
I have no flair for the dramatic, but I fear that we as a nation have allowed ourselves to become enslaved by our own political masters. We are therefore, destined for failure much more than if we had celebrated success AND failure as a means of building again something better. In our society, failure is only to include everyone, and everyone fails or succeeds together. It seems like only a little time ago that we were introducing “participation awards”, and now we are covering everyone’s losses. Except it seems that there is a conspiracy afoot.
I’m a died in the wool libertarian, but there is only so much nepotism that I can stand. I am disgusted beyond belief at what I see. What I see is that the only time that people are bailed out is when it affects big business. When the banks collectively went and did the stupidest stuff in the history of the world in the name of “financial innovation”, they get bailed out. When little investors went and did stupid stuff by buying dot coms… not a chance.
I’m mad as hell, but I don’t know what to do. In elections, I get to choose between a giant douche and a shit sandwich. Equally, everyone around me is too busy getting raped by the government to give a rat’s ass. The only thoughts that come to mind are treasonous and illegal, so I won’t write them down, but, I have to ask, at what point do politicians become responsible for their actions? Is it only when we get invaded and conquered do crimes against humanity get punished?
Unfortunately, with all of the absolutely stupid shite that happens in this country, I can’t think of a country where even more stupid shite happens, so there’s no escape. Maybe this is just what being middle class is all about. I’m too lucky to have the government wipe my butt for me, and I’m not lucky enough to not give a rip or find a way around paying for it. So, I’m stuck working for the government 50% of my income going to taxes and no say in the political process. Makes me want to stop paying taxes altogether. If I thought I could get away with it, I would.
I have to say, this housing bill, what a crock of absolute rubbish, and I’m ashamed to live in a country where politicians pander to everyone but their constituency. Everyone would be much better off if housing were cheap. Everyone complains when the prices of things rise… we call that inflation, but when it’s houses, it’s call an ownership society.
From the WSJ:
Anyone who invests in housing already gets a number of political subsidies. Your mortgage interest can be deducted from your income tax. Your capital gains, up to certain limits, can also be tax free. Taxpayers maintain the roads to and from your home. The new rescue package is just one more subsidy for the asset class of housing.
There was no rescue package for all those honest people who lost their savings in the dotcom crash. And there was no suggestion of any rescue package.
Meanwhile the majority Democratic party is agitating, with plenty of popular support, for a “windfall profits tax” on energy companies.
Such a tax, if it should pass, would by definition lower the returns from investment in oil and gas exploration. Inevitable consequence: Less investment in oil and gas exploration. But this is apparently an acceptable price to pay to ensure that…well, that investors in big energy companies don’t make too much money.
So, where does this all leave us?
Among the many ironies: The current economic crisis is largely the result of too much investment in housing, which led to a bubble and then a collapse, and too little investment in energy, leading to fuel shortages and skyrocketing prices. Yet the political class is acting, as far as I can see, to increase investment still further in housing and reduce investment in energy.
Where do our douche and shit sandwich stand on this?
