Looking Back
Chuck Ponzi August 21st, 2008
I’m going to start periodically looking back at the past 3 years since the blog was started at some of the predictions. Most will be Southern California related, but other outstanding areas will also be called out.
The first of such series comes to us from Naples, Fl. As expected, this one comes from the super-optimistic realtor via Naples News from November 19 2006.
Joe Ballarino, a Realtor with Amerivest, said except for specific instances, home prices are going “sideways” and he expects them to continue doing so.
Market generalizations are usually off base, he said.
“I am on a kick of discrediting market averages,” Ballarino said. “Pricing is so localized, each property has to be valued separately.”
His view of the market is that buyers already are beginning to come back.
“I think (studies) are off the mark,” he said. “At most I can see prices going down maybe 5 percent in some cases but I don’t see (a) 14 percent (decline) — not in the overall market.”
Surprise. Naples-Fort Myers has fallen 32% in just the last year alone. And the pain isn’t over.
Surprise??? Grouping Fort Myers with Naples is like grouping Harlem with Manhattan…goodness gracious…
Yes, yes. It’s an MSA. Can’t get detailed statistics since the Florida Realtors association stopped publishing detailed statistics.
Either way, you can’t have one area falling by a fairly different amount when they are so closely connected.
Chuck
Chuck,
No you can’t get all the detailed statistics since the Florida Association of REALTORS stopped publishing detailed statistics.
So with that in mind, would you like to make a little bet on your statement, “you can’t have one area falling by a fairly different amount…”? Come on…it will be fun…me with all the data…you with…???
I don’t get it. I can’t tell if your post was a troll or if you’re really that disconnected. I’m sorry, I’m stumped. I’ve been blogging for too long to tell the difference. Now even the trolls are beginning to sound pessimistic!
Chuck
Its funny how the trolls are making fun of the bears predictions. My personal favorite is how ‘we looked silly 2004 through 2006.’
Yet many areas are now dropping into 2003 pricing…
Florida is a disaster area. 5+ years of inventory with some locations at 10 years. Multi-million foreclosures aren’t even interesting.
If there was good data on Florida, it would be released to the media. Ms. Lefevre don’t even pretend we don’t already know that. The NAR has always tried to limit real estate news to the good news.
And the Alt-A resets haven’t even started.
Got Popcorn?
Neil