Realtors are on the march again, chanting that you had better hurry up and buy. It’s déjà vu all over again.
I had an offer in on a Buena Park home last week that was listed for $299,000. My client offered $330,000 and didn’t even get a counter offer. Found out there were 70 offers. A house in Menifee was listed at $159,000. They had 35 offers and it went for over $190,000.
My clients who go to open houses tell me the agents are in full “pump and dump” mode telling people the worst is over, we’re at the bottom and they had better hurry up and buy.
I’m a member at Trulia.com and thought you would find some of the Realtor posts entertaining. These are all California agents. Enjoy.
First up, Daniele from Anaheim Hills-
“Hello… time for the mid-month check on the market. It was my experience over the weekend that there was WAY WAY more buyers than there are properties to buy right now. I was all over Southern California and it was a zoo everywhere. Not to mention… my listing in Chino Hills had about 19 showings over the weekend.
So let’s check in on the REO inventory….
She goes on to tell how low the REO inventory is without talking about moratoriums or new foreclosure notification requirements.
“I want to end this by saying… if you have been thinking of selling to move up, down-size, or move away… NOW is the time. Time to cash in on this “craze” of activity right now. Buyers are OUT and they are looking for homes. If you or someone you know would like to know just how many buyers are looking for a home like yours…. let me know. I have exclusive tools that I can use to show you how many buyers are actively searching the internet for homes and it can show me…how many are looking for a home like yours!
Helping you build your dreams!”
I bet she ruined a few dreams in her day
Next, from San Jose-
The Market is Changing… You have to Move now!
“I have been helping my partner this weekend with his clients and showing houses and believe it or not it’s been a crazy experience. On all of the houses that I show, we have to wait in line so we can go ahead and look at the property. Is this a sign that the market is changing? Is this next BOOM? bare in mind that the last time I experience this was 2003 till 2005 and that was the boom time.
What is good is that buyers are now qualified based on their true income and that they are really putting a down payment or collateral on the house and last the houses are now priced below what the previous owners have bought it and that is a bargain. (As if that fact makes it a good deal)
I include a link talking about the real estate market and that it’s starting to move and it’s moving Fast.
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=7564649&page=1
I hope this will give the potential buyers a clue of what’s happening in our Market here in San Jose. Together we can change this economy back to good one.”
From Santa Clara comes Michael (complete with spelling errors). This is my favorite.
The bottom is…here! IMHO
“Ok! I am suffering from too many numbers, quotes and opinions. Cap Rates, Cap and Trade, Carpet Tiles, Carbon and Tire Piles. From Obama’s economic plan and Bush’s mistakes to Barney Franks…too much clutter! Maybe writing three offers and viewing nine homes today or the Starbucks at 9pm has me fired up!
Like Obama said yesterday ” The stars have aligned…” He was referring to the congress and white house being on the same side, I know. Who cares! I only care about the residential housing segment! In my 28 years of working in the residential housing market has made it clear to me…The Stars Have Aligned..NOW!!!!
The market has bounced around, the housing segment has free fallen, like a trolley car going down Lombard street without a break man. The job losses are about to level off. The truth is the housing market is preparing to make a surge big time, in my opinion. The morgage finance rates are so low they are nearly free considering the 5-7year equity upside that is certainly coming. Especially the fixed rates. It is bringing tears to my eyes!..or is it the coffee?
I have been writing offer after offer for buyers, lately (today), and homes are seeing multiple offers like 2003. It is amazing how many best buys we are finding for everyone…. I hope you are one. The inventory is down from 16 months worth to 4 months worth. Some communities are at 3 months worth of inventory. The big question….Where is the bottom? Ummm…I think it is about to go on sabatical.
If anyone is waiting…they are going to be like those in 2005 and “wanting”. rev.(spurred by great comments to this post) ~ The difference between 2003-2005 to the present is that in 2003- 2005 we were not aware of the derivitive debacle and the total slide it created. Today, at least we have more of the facts and can make better decisions moving forward.~ end rev. Market conditions have never been better. Find a savvy Realtor, mortgage professional and your calculator and get moving on the Foreclosures and Short Sales available. Where? Wherever YOU want to buy a home in Santa Clara County or an investment out of the area. Your Realtor is licensed to sell in California! Everywhere in California!.
Don’t believe me! Call your freinds…Call your Uncle, the Realtor…Go to open houses this weekend! Then come back here and tell me what you learned!”
From Mandy in WestLake Village-
“Buyer’s Beware!
The market has begun to change and the buyers are the last to know. Great homes are moving fast- clever agents are pricing them below market value which draws a feeding frenzy of multiple offers and bidding wars. The final selling price is likely higher than anyone would have previously thought. However, a good portion of buyers are laboring under the mistaken impression that prices are continuing to drop in all market areas and they can name their price. Educating these buyers as to the reality of the market is proving difficult and sellers and agents alike are getting frustrated with ridiculously lowball offers. The tide has begun to turn and a home in good condition in a desirable area is under contract before some buyers are even able to view it. So many homes that can’t be shown because of a renter or some other situation, have multiple offers before anyone has viewed them based solely on the listing details, price, and location. Watch out for the bottom- if you are diving in to the market now you might strike your head on it.”
Finally from Bob, right here in Coto De Caza responding to my contention that more foreclosures will hit the market soon-
The “so-called” shadow inventory of foreclosures, that you allude to, is a myth. It is falsely based on years old data that has NOT been updated in the past few months, during which a new administration has stepped in and put numerous programs into effect which – along with lenders working MUCH harder recently to modify or refinance troubled mortgages – has taken GIGANTIC strides to mitigate the problems which WERE on the horizon.
I looked up some of the local agents doing this puffing and see they haven’t closed a sale in two years. It’s sad the things they’ll say to try and drive the market.
Brad Davidson
Thanks for your honesty.
The silver lining in all this is that many people have gotten burned very badly by the RE industry’s BS during this bubble, and although people have short memories on the historical scale, I’d guess it’ll be a while before virtually anyone is deluded into thinking a Realtor is on their side, or giving unbiased information. The nice thing about the NAR’s continued propaganda, even in the face of a virtual market freefall, is that even the very dense potential buyer can see that they are full of it. It may take people a while to get over the idea that they don’t have someone to rely on for unbiased information, and get used to doing their own research, but at least they will be better informed in the future, and perhaps the collective elevation of transparency will lead to some nice changes (eg: 6% commission for doing a simple computer search could stand to die).
I was looking at houses last weekend on the westside (of LA) (for ideas, not to buy or anything), and had an agent tell me there’s not as much inventory as they would like to have. I told him to cheer up and just wait a bit, the alt-a tidal wave was coming… he didn’t seem as enthused as I was about that, though.
The Obama bounce is in!
Dead Cat Bounces for everyone!
If you’re going to sell your home, now is the time to do it, I agree.
BTW, Nick. A sucker is born every minute. People will believe whatever they hear on the tv. They will spend every dime they have, and will never save a penny.
Chuck
Great post, Brad
dataquick’s April stats are out. this is an interesting graph for sure:
http://spreadsheets.google.com.....#038;gid=3
the biggest thing is if you notice, FCs are 12months behind their NODs:
http://spreadsheets.google.com.....#038;gid=5
If FCs were to continue tracking NODs, we were about 2 months from seeing a HUGE jump in FCs when that SBxxxx law got signed.
One of 2 things has happened:
1. The new mod efforts are WILDLY successful and have cured a lot of NODs
2. NODs are already processed and there are a metric buttload of foreclosures waiting to happen.
BTW, speaking of time-shifting…
I have often spoken of a friend of mine who is going through foreclosure/short sale.
Currently, he has not made a payment on his house since May 2007. That makes almost 25 months of rent-free living in a manse in Laguna Niguel. Ocean view, no less, and in a multi-million dollar area.
Between his banks being difficult for buyers to deal with, their own incompetence, and flat out stupidity, the short sale offers (which have been copius) have not gone through. He is currently on his umpteenth offer, supposed to close in 4 weeks if nothing goes wrong.
I suggested he write a book on it, titled “How to live rent free in a mansion for more than 2 years”.
And, lest anyone think that he’s a scumbag, he freely admits that he’s been happy to have the bank take the house back more than 18 months ago. It was a mistake for him to buy it and his business (subprime lending) went under within 18 months of his purchasing it. He’s my friend and it’s too bad that banks are prolonging the crash. It’d be nice to just get it over with and be done with it already. We’d already be on our way to recovery if there weren’t so much stupidity along the way.
With the way things are going, we could have more than a decade of down to stagnant prices. It’s a real mess.
Hello,
I live in Riverside. Might you have NODs vs FC data for Riverside county (like you do for Orange County)?
Thank you,
Alex
“I have exclusive tools”
Yeah, right. Like the same tools all RE agents have. And that don’t distinguish the curious from the real buyers.
Mandy is wayyyy too excited !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(Less is more where exclamation points are concerned)
Dang, I realize these RE ‘professionals’ are trying to look out for themselves, but for Christ’s sake how long do they think they can pump these dead cat bounces and at what cost to their already damaged reputations?
Oh yeah, people have short memories.
correction – it was the realtor Michael from Santa Clara who was overdosing on hyper-punctuation.
I have to agree with this post. It’s not just in trying to get buyers to come on board that many agents use this hyped language, but in my experience, they use it throughout the entire process- “I need this document in the next hour or the deal will fall apart” or “John is flipping out because X didn’t happen at this particular time!”
I just look at them and laugh when I hear them use this type of language. I find a few incisive questions is all it takes to puncture the sense of calamity they’re trying to foster.
Incidentally, I just launched a blog on San Diego Property Management if anyone’s interested.
Cheers