Comments on: April was a Shocker! http://www.socalbubble.com/2009/05/april-was-a-shocker.html Southern California is Experiencing a Real Estate Bubble like never before Fri, 04 Feb 2011 01:16:46 -0700 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1 By: Adam http://www.socalbubble.com/2009/05/april-was-a-shocker.html/comment-page-1#comment-86309 Adam Thu, 14 May 2009 18:28:08 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=635#comment-86309 Interesting... I'm ready to buy now, but waiting. I'm hoping to get into a low-end place in a high end location. Probably a condo or small/old home near the beach. Just waiting to watch the Alt-A and prime mess start running its course. I need to see who will be moving out of my new place and selling it to me for cheap. If their creative financing doesn't kick them out, unemployment should help me get those guys to move out of my new place. Indeed it will be SHOCKING! :) Interesting… I’m ready to buy now, but waiting. I’m hoping to get into a low-end place in a high end location. Probably a condo or small/old home near the beach. Just waiting to watch the Alt-A and prime mess start running its course. I need to see who will be moving out of my new place and selling it to me for cheap. If their creative financing doesn’t kick them out, unemployment should help me get those guys to move out of my new place. Indeed it will be SHOCKING! :)

]]> By: Chuck Ponzi http://www.socalbubble.com/2009/05/april-was-a-shocker.html/comment-page-1#comment-86297 Chuck Ponzi Thu, 14 May 2009 16:43:44 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=635#comment-86297 I see dead cat bounces in low-end homes and locations. The federal stimulus is having its intended effect on stabilizing the low end from dropping 40 to 50% per year. However, with no savings, the low end buyer has a limited range. Volume is definitely up for 2009 because of the above. However, because the mid range and high end remains stuck, I would say that the dead cat bounce will give us lift up to -12% to -9% for the year. This is quite an achievement when you consider that we were coming off of -40% for the prior year. Unfortunately, once the stimulus is gone, unless there is an even larger stimulus to follow, there will still be a trend reversion. Normally, we could have established a strong footing to see a stable 2010, but I'm forecasting another loss in 2010 due to the meddling. In addition, California is paying builders to build even more homes through the 10K credit to new home buyers. So, explain how an overbuilt housing market benefits with even more supply? Chuck Ponzi I see dead cat bounces in low-end homes and locations. The federal stimulus is having its intended effect on stabilizing the low end from dropping 40 to 50% per year.

However, with no savings, the low end buyer has a limited range.

Volume is definitely up for 2009 because of the above.

However, because the mid range and high end remains stuck, I would say that the dead cat bounce will give us lift up to -12% to -9% for the year. This is quite an achievement when you consider that we were coming off of -40% for the prior year.

Unfortunately, once the stimulus is gone, unless there is an even larger stimulus to follow, there will still be a trend reversion. Normally, we could have established a strong footing to see a stable 2010, but I’m forecasting another loss in 2010 due to the meddling.

In addition, California is paying builders to build even more homes through the 10K credit to new home buyers. So, explain how an overbuilt housing market benefits with even more supply?

Chuck Ponzi

]]> By: Adam http://www.socalbubble.com/2009/05/april-was-a-shocker.html/comment-page-1#comment-86291 Adam Thu, 14 May 2009 15:32:25 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=635#comment-86291 Where else can you come for a reference to the shocker and dead cat bounce in one article? Thanks Chuck! It's not offensive, it just gives the site personality. :) Just how high do you think that dead cat bounce will be if it hits in 2009? Where else can you come for a reference to the shocker and dead cat bounce in one article? Thanks Chuck! It’s not offensive, it just gives the site personality. :)

Just how high do you think that dead cat bounce will be if it hits in 2009?

]]> By: James/LAEF2 http://www.socalbubble.com/2009/05/april-was-a-shocker.html/comment-page-1#comment-86258 James/LAEF2 Thu, 14 May 2009 04:41:58 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=635#comment-86258 Recourse means they can go after your future income. Recourse means they can go after your future income.

]]> By: James/LAEF2 http://www.socalbubble.com/2009/05/april-was-a-shocker.html/comment-page-1#comment-86257 James/LAEF2 Thu, 14 May 2009 04:41:32 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=635#comment-86257 Ask for principle reduction, get near equivalent rent or just walk away. You don't want to go for a modification that puts you into a recourse loan. Or something that resets in 5yrs. Basically you will have to hit the reset switch on your credit five years later. Good luck Jo Jo. Ask for principle reduction, get near equivalent rent or just walk away. You don’t want to go for a modification that puts you into a recourse loan. Or something that resets in 5yrs. Basically you will have to hit the reset switch on your credit five years later.

Good luck Jo Jo.

]]> By: Jo Jo http://www.socalbubble.com/2009/05/april-was-a-shocker.html/comment-page-1#comment-86254 Jo Jo Thu, 14 May 2009 03:56:34 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=635#comment-86254 Wasn't the foreclosure surge due to the expiration of moratoriums? We haven't paid our badly upside down mortgage since August and still haven't gotten an NOD, same with a neighbor. We're just now beginning to talk loan mod w/ Cuntrywide, so fingers crossed. Wasn’t the foreclosure surge due to the expiration of moratoriums? We haven’t paid our badly upside down mortgage since August and still haven’t gotten an NOD, same with a neighbor. We’re just now beginning to talk loan mod w/ Cuntrywide, so fingers crossed.

]]> By: Chuck Ponzi http://www.socalbubble.com/2009/05/april-was-a-shocker.html/comment-page-1#comment-86246 Chuck Ponzi Thu, 14 May 2009 00:27:39 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=635#comment-86246 I think he was meeting with American Sign Language supporters. They are technically making the sign of "7" in ASL, but it sure looks a lot like "The Shocker". I believe the shocker was that even the experts of Realty Trac were surprised that April was higher than March. They were expecting some abatement after April was so high after moratoriums expired. What is not surprising is that California accounted for 28% of all US foreclosure filings last month with just over 96,560 filings out of 342K. There has been a lot of recent optimism that housing had bottomed due to the recently constrained supply and had even erupted into some scattered bidding wars for well priced properties (I actually witnessed one up close and personal). However, that optimism was largely because of the moratoriums which have now gone away. However, I believe that this year will actually see some strength due to the moratoriums creating a huge backlog of shadow inventory. Late this year, we will be seeing more of that inventory come on the market and prices erode further in most segments and locations. Chuck Ponzi I think he was meeting with American Sign Language supporters. They are technically making the sign of “7″ in ASL, but it sure looks a lot like “The Shocker”.

I believe the shocker was that even the experts of Realty Trac were surprised that April was higher than March. They were expecting some abatement after April was so high after moratoriums expired.

What is not surprising is that California accounted for 28% of all US foreclosure filings last month with just over 96,560 filings out of 342K. There has been a lot of recent optimism that housing had bottomed due to the recently constrained supply and had even erupted into some scattered bidding wars for well priced properties (I actually witnessed one up close and personal). However, that optimism was largely because of the moratoriums which have now gone away.

However, I believe that this year will actually see some strength due to the moratoriums creating a huge backlog of shadow inventory. Late this year, we will be seeing more of that inventory come on the market and prices erode further in most segments and locations.

Chuck Ponzi

]]> By: the dragon http://www.socalbubble.com/2009/05/april-was-a-shocker.html/comment-page-1#comment-86241 the dragon Wed, 13 May 2009 23:07:53 +0000 http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=635#comment-86241 saying "let me know" after the fact doesn't excuse you from such behavior, you know :) i'm more curious about the photo. what sign are they making? what is GW's significance in this photo? the reason i'm more curious about the photo is because everyone knows foreclosures are on the rise. you're just stating the obvious. it's not at all shocking, sorry to say. saying “let me know” after the fact doesn’t excuse you from such behavior, you know :)

i’m more curious about the photo. what sign are they making? what is GW’s significance in this photo?

the reason i’m more curious about the photo is because everyone knows foreclosures are on the rise. you’re just stating the obvious. it’s not at all shocking, sorry to say.

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