Orange County Down 20% in one Year – It’s in the Bag!

On April 16, 2008, In Gary Watts, Housing Crash, Mean Reversion, By Chuck Ponzi

Dataquick gives us the skinny on Socal housing median prices:

All homes Mar-07 Mar-08 %Chng Mar-07 Mar-08 %Chng
Los Angeles 8,353    4,263   -49.0%   $540,000   $440,000   -18.50%
Orange 3,130    1,663   -46.9%   $629,000   $506,000   -19.60%
Riverside 3,680    2,691   -26.9%   $420,000   $306,250   -27.10%
San Bernardino 2,476    1,534   -38.0%   $369,000   $265,000   -28.20%
San Diego 3,218    2,108   -34.5%   $490,000   $395,000   -19.40%
Ventura    999       549   -45.0%   $566,750   $430,000   -24.10%
SoCal 21,856   12,808   -41.4%   $505,000   $385,000   -23.80%

I’m sure some can appreciate how this is actually greater than the 17% “in the bag” that Gary Watts promised us in 2006 in reverse. After an already negative appreciation in 07 and depreciation on the way down is the inverse (more $ on the downside than on the upside per percent), prices are easily back to 2005 prices in the median, and 2004 and 2003 pricing for what is actually selling. The crash is continuing.

 
20 Comments
Leave A Response

Chuck Ponzi Law of Unintended Consequences III

On February 22, 2008, In Housing Crash, Lending Standards, Speculation, Unintended Consequences, By Chuck Ponzi

The Chuck Ponzi Law of Unintended Consequences is alive and in full force. I had to whip it out another time when Congress started considering the subprime rate freezes. And now, it rears it ugly head again and I am forced to once again remind people how “helping” most often ends up just hurting people.

Remember the original rule:

If there is any chance that someone can get bailed out by someone else, they will, and you will have to pay for it from your own pocket.

I had to later add:

while you may need to pay for it, anything other than letting the market deal with it efficiently will likely crash it anyway

This time, I’ll have to add the following:

And messing with it will make it crash harder than if you had just kept your stupid nosy butt out of it.

and that’s how I can frame the message to those reading the MSNBC article about “saving” people from their underwater houses.

The current plan to “save” homedebtors is to “forgive” the amount that borrowers are underwater. Meanwhile, the Jeffrey Birnbaum seems to take the tack that we should be poopooing on the stupid lenders for lending that amount in the first place. Naturally, banks are fighting it. In the short run, this “solution” becomes their problem. Unfortunately, in the long run, it becomes everyone’s problem.

The legislation would allow bankruptcy judges for the first time to alter the terms of mortgages for primary residences. Under the proposal, borrowers could declare bankruptcy, and a judge would be able to reduce the amount they owe as part of resolving their debts.

There are at least 2 significant problems with this solution.

1. There is a moral component to paying back what you owe. It is supremely unfair to prudent citizens when gamblers and speculators are saved from their own poor decisions. But, it goes further than that; this bailout encourages more risk taking and gambling – a term referred to as moral hazard. The fear is that open risk taking can create systemic risk that at some later date cannot be bailed out; the captains must go down with the ship.

2. The other is the physics of a forgiveness. Like Newton’s third law of physics, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. If Banks believe that they can lose up to 20 or 30% of the value of a home, they will begin to require borrowers to “self insure” by raising collateral requirements to mitigate their new risk. They will also likely offset the risk through higher risk spreads translating to substantially higher rates with stricter requirements for credit worthiness.

Consider who this is attempting to help:

The Democrats and their allies see the plan as an antidote to the recent mortgage crisis, especially among low-income borrowers with subprime loans. The legislation would prevent as many as 600,000 homeowners from being thrown into foreclosure, its advocates say.

The poor? Who would least likely be able to handle an increase in the collateral requirements and interest rates set forth for the purchase of a home? My belief is that if this law is passed, it will severely deepen the housing crisis. Indeed, this will likely make the housing problems a super-crisis; akin to raising interest rates in a deflationary environment. This would mean not only that we would be erasing all of the gains of the bubble, but likely much, much more. If first-time buyers were required to save 20% collateral again, it would literally shut down the first-time homebuyers in Southern California. It would not return to the existing levels for perhaps another generation as the system cleanses itself. All of the increased savings would have a positive effect of actual savings, but it would create a severe recession since consumers would need to retrench and cut off discretionary spending. We could easily see homeownership rates erode by 10% or more over the coming decade of turmoil.

This “solution” is quite possibly the worst kind of consequence in itself. It will crash housing markets in high-priced locales and deepen the coming recession throughout the country. I’m a fan of just letting the markets right themselves and sort out the mess itself. Any kind of well intentioned tinkering will only make the problem worse. The time to act is past and cannot be recaptured. The right time to fix the problem was to prevent it in the first place.

Unless the US Government wants to become the lender of last resort (see the discussion of systemic risk) and to personally insure low collateralized mortgages in an inflated market, there is no way this legislation cannot wipe out innovative lending. All of the lending and borrowing participants will have been crowded out by risk aversion.

Let’s hope that our government is aware enough to see what this would do and kill this legislation before it becomes a reality.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m no banksters apologist. They are greedy, self-serving, and destructive. Their moral compass is broken and their money guides their actions. Congress, unfortunately are worse. They work with a corrupt moral compass and other people’s money.

Here’s hoping that if Congress can’t pull their heads out of their collective asses that President Bush has enough sense to wield the necessary veto rights. The very civil liberties of property rights must be protected; both for individual citizens and corporations. Once we take it from one class, we can take it from others; it’s only a matter of time before we find a reason to.

 
1 Comments
Leave A Response

Peter Schiff – Rockstar of the Housing Bubble

On October 28, 2007, In Credit Bubble, Debt, Housing Crash, Inflation, Mean Reversion, By Chuck Ponzi

I have to admit, one of my guilty pleasures is both listening to Peter Schiff and following his advice. His theories have given my portfolio a great push forward. This is a great example of taking on the domestic bull in relationship to our declining dollar. There will be a time to buy USD again, but that time is not now.

I believe a lot of that timing will come from Bernanke’s will to crush the housing bubble. If he doesn’t, it’ll be a long time before we can get well again. We need to take the tough medicine.

 
7 Comments
Leave A Response

Orange Crush: From the Frontlines

On October 26, 2007, In Housing Crash, Inventory, Mean Reversion, By Chuck Ponzi

Jonathan Lansner reported on the most recent moves in median sales prices:

Early October home-selling stats from DataQuick show the credit crunch’s grip on the market. Difficulties getting mortgages meant sales activity was down 41% vs. a year ago for the 22 business days ended Oct. 12. If that holds, it’ll mean that O.C.’s losing streak will hit 25 straight months where the buying pace failed to meet last year’s activity levels.

Pricing was also weak. The overall median selling price, down 8.8% in a year, held at the 31-month low ($570,000) hit last month.

It appears that median prices are beginning to show the overall trend in pricing. This could mean one of 2 things:

1. Lower end is recovering

2. Higher End is also feeling pressure now.

Originally, I forecase a median price down year over year for 2007 to be in the 3 to 5% down range. That may prove to be too optimistic, and reality further from that.

Consider what is now typical pricing:

23 Nopalitos

23 Nopalitos Way, Aliso Viejo

1923 Sq Ft 4-bd, 2.5bth. Gated Community. Recent foreclosure. Landscaping dead, dead, dead.

List Price: $604,900

Last Purchase Price: $740,000

Last Purchase Date: 9/13/2006.

Loss in Last 13 months if asking price is met: $135,100 (18.3%) (23% after commissions)

Zestimate: $756K (Can you say disconnected?)

These houses sold 5 years ago in the 300K range. I wouldn’t be surprised to see mid 400′s, if not low 400′s.

So, isn’t the 8.8% reduction in median price still skewed a bit high? Yes. On upswings, it understates the increase, and on downswings, it understates the decrease. It’s more of a lagging indicator.

Enjoy your weekend

 
11 Comments
Leave A Response

Chuck Ponzi Law of Unintended Consequences II

On October 8, 2007, In Credit Bubble, Debt, Housing Crash, Inflation, Mean Reversion, By Chuck Ponzi

Some longer time readers will remember a post that I made back in April of this year titled “Chuck Ponzi’s Law of Unintended Consequences“.  That post detailed the bail-out idea du jour… foreclosure moratoriums.

I always enjoy a discussion of how the mortgage mess that we find ourselves in can be “fixed” by using nontraditional methods.  For each of the parties arguing the solution, it often involves directly benefitting them, while the cost is to be borne by another group… “the marks”.

Mike Shedlock’s analysis of the CRL (Center for Responsible Lending) and FDIC’s proposed solutions is particluarly interesting.  His post is properly titled “The Debt Slave Act of 2005 Revisted“, which makes perfect sense considering how consumers have effectively been cut off from the one chance to make a clean break after devastating financial problems.  Instead, the newer law attempts to weed out deadbeat habitual spendthrifts from performing frequent and repeated filings to wipe the board clean every few years.  Instead, it has made it difficult enough to file bankruptcy that there is little to no possible way out.  In addition, with pledges to repay, many become debt slaves to past problems, unable to leave them in the past.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m definitely for personal responsibility in life, perhaps even too much; but the law as it currently stands puts a burden on already destitute people.  It has served to benefit lenders most of all.  So, it is with some twisted satisfaction that I read what Mish has to say on the matter… all of with which I agree.

First, he quotes a CNN Money article (shortened excerpt)

One consumer group estimates that 600,000 foreclosures could be avoided over the next two years by making a simple change to the bankruptcy code.

The Center for Responsible Lending (CRL) calls it a tweak, but it could be a significant change for homeowners and the market for mortgage-backed securities.
CRL’s proposal – reflected in a House bill recently introduced – would make changes to the regulations for Chapter 13 bankruptcies, which don’t wipe out debts, but rather establish a repayment plan.

Under current law, when a person files for Ch. 13 bankruptcy, judges cannot reduce mortgage debt owed on a person’s primary residence, although they may modify mortgages on investment property or second homes.

Under the House bill, the bankruptcy judge would have the option of reducing what the homeowner owes the lender. Say a homeowner’s property is worth less than what he owes. The judge could reduce the principal to match the home’s current market value as well as reduce the loan’s interest rate.

Mish also quotes the FDIC’s proposal:

The heat on U.S. mortgage lenders and servicers was turned up a few degrees this week when the country’s chief bank regulator publicly proposed that they permanently freeze interest rates on subprime adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) for many homeowners.

“Keep it at the starter rate. Convert it into a fixed rate. Make it permanent. And get on with it,” Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said in prepared remarks at an investor’s conference.

That solution is nearly as bizarre.

Now, before too many of my readers go off on rants considering how this is supremely unfair… consider 2 things:  first, if balances on loans can be decided in a court and lowered as a judge feels inclined, how many banks will want to loan money, and secondly consider what Mish has to say regarding “fixing” the ARMs:

It should not take a genius to figure out that if ARMs rates are “frozen” at a point where the market does not think rates should be, there simply will be no more ARMs offered. Furthermore, to cover the cost of existing ARMS, prices would rise on new fixed rate mortgages. Oddly enough, price fixing ARMs would not even help the person most at risk because that person cannot afford the teaser rate, let alone the cost of a current ARMS rate. Thus price fixing ARMs is a sure fired guaranteed way to cause a continued weakness in home prices, if not an actual out and out crash.

Which reminds me of the original Chuck Ponzi Law of Unintended Consequences:

If there is any chance that someone can get bailed out by someone else, they will, and you will have to pay for it from your own pocket.

Now, I’m considering that I have to add that while you may need to pay for it, anything other than letting the market deal with it efficiently will likely crash it anyway.  In the end, it is the same thing that my first Econ professor in college always said was the #1 rule of economics:  TNSTAAFL “There’s No Such Thing As A Free Lunch”.  No such thing.

I am willing to bet that any artificial means of attempting to “solve” the problem will only make it worse, both for the person they are trying to help, and the overall group of people.  The only people helped by the above solutions are those who have ALL of the following:

  1. Long histories of repayment
  2. Excellent credit scores
  3. Lots of cash for a down payment, maybe up to 30 or 40% to prevent bankruptcy write-downs
  4. Enough income to support purchases on fixed rates with lengthy work history.

This way, only the most qualified can purchase.  At current prices, there are likely only 1 to 2% of the people in the entire Southern California region who could fit this bill for an average home.  And, frankly, there is no way these people will live in an “average” SoCal home.  Imposing the suggested “solutions” will only serve to do three things:

  • Depeen the credit crunch
  • Crash the housing market
  • induce a consumer-led recession, if not depression

The deeper the credit crunch, the harder and farther housing prices will have to fall to meet demand.  The harder and further prices fall, the more likely that good paying homeowners will walk away from an underwater mortgage.  More foreclosures dropping prices and deeper credit crunch will turn off MEW (Mortgage Equity Withdrawals) which is what has been keeping the consumer (along with their credit cards) in clothes, vacations, and Plasma TV’s.  A crumbled consumer is a crumbled economy.

When the service on debt becomes more than the income, defaults are certain.  Since US wages have been in real decline (against inflation), and the US dollar in severe decline, the loss of purchasing power has become an unbelievable crush.  Anyone who has not felt and seen the substantial inflation over the past 2 years has either been asleep or dead.  Even high-end wage earners have felt the sting of higher prices.

All of this leaves me very pessimistic about the local economy that has been so built on the fortunes of real estate.  I fear we may have much, much worse things ahead of us compared with the past few months.

 
3 Comments
Leave A Response

“Subprime Implosion” the word of the Decade

On August 21, 2007, In Housing Crash, Psychology, Speculation, SubPrime, By Chuck Ponzi

Balrog

Housing bubble apologists often dismissed bubble believers’ concerns out of hand with the following party line: Southern California’s prices only fell last time due to substantial job losses due to the dislocation of the defense industry. (no matter that the Eastern Seaboard had a similarly-timed slide and did not attribute it to the same) Such job losses cannot happen again; the job market is too strong, diversified, and recession proof.

In a number of past posts, I have connected the dots related to current job strength, even while realizing that it was not just the number of jobs, but in particular, the type of jobs that matters when it comes to affordability. Indeed, it is important that the prices of houses are not supported by those that already live in an area, but rather by those who are coming to an area. On the flipside, as an area becomes too expensive, those unable, unwilling to remain, or tempted by their good fortune will sell to realize their gain and move elsewhere. We have already seen San Diego County’s negative growth rate (in spite of a substantially increased housing stock). These moves happen slowly, and reacclimating boiled frogs to lukewarm pots makes them believe they are actually in frigid arctic waters.

What the mainstream media failed terribly to see was that it is exactly the excesses created during the bubble that must be punished in a downturn. First, it was the mantra that Real estate never goes down. Then, it was a “soft patch”. Later, a “Soft Landing”. Then “A souffle’”. All of those jobs due to lending and construction that have paved the way to even higher housing prices have now turned into a vicious downcycle. Remember that the “Zombie Financial Media Awareness Week” is just a few weeks away. Why is it that the media has no memory that bubble blogs were appearing in early to mid 2005, warning of excesses in lending and finance?

Perhaps just as appropriately, one would ask, why are their virtual undead still haunting the pages of major news outlets. Featured writers, no less, that give denial a new face. It might be valuable to read what Wikipedia has to say about denial before visting one of our local train wrecks.

from Wikipedia:

Denial is a defense mechanism in which a person is faced with a fact that is too painful to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence. The subject may deny the reality of the unpleasant fact altogether (simple denial), admit the fact but deny its seriousness (minimisation) or admit both the fact and seriousness but deny responsibility (transference). The concept of denial is particularly important to the study of addiction.

After reading that, you might be able to find perhaps even a bit of humor in a piece written by our own lovable village dolt based out of San Diego, George Chamberlain just last week:

Let me begin by passing along my congratulations to the many people who are celebrating the current situation in the housing market. In concert with much of the national and local media, they have been able to artificially construct something that has never —- I repeat, never —- been done before: drive down housing prices at a time when unemployment is low, the economy is booming and consumer confidence is approaching record highs.

A column I wrote about a year ago on the housing market triggered more hate mail than any other topic that I have discussed. I needed to check underneath my car and use a food taster for a couple of weeks after I suggested that the situation was dramatically overstated.

That this level of denial exists, is not prima facie a surprise. That a person so disconnected from reality, even after it is made known to the world can get published can only mean 2 things. Either the editor couldn’t care less about what is being written, or is in similar denial. Not once does the discussion turn to the primary driver of housing prices; job creation. Stagnation can already force prices down with an increasing housing stock; much more with out-migration.

If you read the entire piece, you’ll see that his article exhibits a number of different defense mechanisms. From minimisation to transference to outright denial. One might wonder if he is addicted to house price appreciation. We sure know many San Diegans are addicted… and their only fix is through another equity extraction. Wall Street just shut off the spigot, and it’s very interesting the stages of grief that participants go through as an outsider.

It wasn’t hard to spot where our problems lied, even a year or 2 ago. Jonathan Lansner was able to identify some time ago that housing related to 17% of Orange County’s entire job base. Many observers have noted that a healthy balance is between 6% and 12%. Just to bring us to parity with a healthy balance, we would have to increase our unemployment figures by 5% to 11% of the total workforce. Those are depression-level statistics.

As scary and frightening as they may seem, there are some actions that they everyday person should have done in the past 2 years: (and might still be able to pull off before the slide gains even more steam)

1. Eliminate any speculation that is lending or real estate related: sell any properties, refinance historic-low fixed rates, sell homebuilder or financial stocks, mutual funds, and even banks.

2. Housing-recession proof your career. Find a new one, or develop your business plan to excel when downturns happen.

3. Reduce debt, and raise cash or liquid investments. This one will allow you to ride out any temporary storms as well as purchase property in 3 to 5 years from now when they once again return to appropriate levels.

4. Pay off any adjustable debt, hoard cash. Many people are carrying unhealthy levels of debt. While comical, the man riding the lawnmower in debt up to his eyeballs is all too real in America. Don’t be the person who loses their home to out of control personal expenses.

If George Chamberlain wants positive to come out of this, Southern Californians need to break their cultural pathology and begin to save, invest, and build, rather than consume. Otherwise, there is nothing for us to look forward to. Last time, the scapegoat was the defense industry. This time, it will be the “Subprime Implosion”. Years from now, people will attribute the downturn, not with the excesses that led to it (that would mean assigning the blame to ourselves and our human nature), but with the trigger that collapsed the house of cards we had built.

We have met the enemy and he is us.

 
32 Comments
Leave A Response

“Now is the Time to Hunt for Housing Bargains”

On August 9, 2007, In Bubble, Contrary Indicators, Housing Costs, Housing Crash, Inventory, Mean Reversion, By Chuck Ponzi

This was the headline of some financial reasearch issued by Joseph Hargett of Schaeffer Research on March 27th, 2007.

I’ll let you decide how prudent that advice was by viewing the top homebuilders’ stocks from that date until today measured against the S&P 500.

Homebuilders Stocks

I’m predicting that even with all of the price declines, I believe there’s still a lot more.

Here is what Joseph had to say:

It seems you can’t talk about the housing sector these days without mentioning the “S” word. Subprime, yes I said it, has even wormed its way into the vernacular of many Fed watchers and Fed members – not to mention the warning shots fired from the sidelines by former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan every other week or so. This morning, the Fed sounded yet another gloom and doom note for the housing sector, as Sandra Braunstein, the director of the Fed’s division of consumer and community affairs, stated that borrowers could see “more difficulty” in the next one to two years. In particular, those borrowers with recently originated adjustable-rate mortgages are likely to experience more delinquencies and foreclosures, Braunstein said.

and

Admittedly, the situation is not very flattering for the U.S. housing market. However, I think that the hype over the popping of the so called “housing bubble” is being overplayed just a bit too much. Just take this quote from a March 18 New York Times article titled “On the Homefront”: “In many quarters, Greenspan was essentially accused of cheating the country out of the depression we deserved: instead of allowing the swooning Nasdaq to bring down the United States economy and punish us for our sins, he had rolled the tech bubble into a housing bubble and allowed the party to go on.”

Blaming Greenspan seems convenient at this point, especially with Bernanke’s Fed in a holding pattern. And comparing the “Dot-com” bust to the current situation in housing seems rather irresponsible. After all, betting on virtual real estate seems a far cry from betting on housing prices and “real” real estate. I mean, can you really compare the long defunct Pets.com and WebVan to Lennar ( LEN: View sentiment for LENsentiment, chart, options) and Hovnanian (HOV: View sentiment for HOVsentiment, chart, options) ?

I have sat on this article for 5 months to see if my research was right on where they were headed… in an effort to dispel any myths. He was dead wrong, and worse than that, revealed poor research on the underlying fundamentals of the housing problem. It is and still is an affordability crisis. The decline in sales will not abate until that affordability standard is reachieved. At current course and speed, that won’t be for another 2 years at the minimum.

I believe that we will still see some of these builders declare bankruptcy (ch 11) before this bust is through.

 
6 Comments
Leave A Response

Consider what you have just witnessed

On August 6, 2007, In Housing Crash, Moving, SoCal, By Chuck Ponzi

If you consider all that has happened over the past week, past month, and past 6 months, it is likely that many of us have never seen before the kind of turning point we have just seen.

American Home Mortgage bit the dust

Accredited Home Lenders is teetering on insolvency

Countrywide warned

Indymac pulled core products

Numerous other lenders are also pulling their main products as well

If we take the logical next steps to what this means for the overall housing market, where does it leave us?

While Gary Watts would like you to believe that all that has to happen is that the FED needs to lower interest rates, the problem is not that easily solved… and I’m not sure we want to solve a problem that the market is currently working on solving anyway.

In addition, many in the housing market will fail to see the turning point and are going to be suspended in the air for another six months like Wile E. Coyote.  It won’t be until next year that we really see the freefall in values.

Nowhere in the Constitution does it offer the right of ever appreciating real estate in this country. Neither does it promise that you won’t get hurt for your own stupid decisions.

This is the end of the housing market as it has been for the past 7 years. It is a changed market, and we will likely not see the end of the housing bust for at least 3 or 4 years from now at the very soonest. With all of the lending losses, it will be very unlikely that lending would approach the reckless abandon it achieved over the past few years any time in the forseeable future. Even the FED can’t save this now. It would be as they say “Pushing on a String”. lenders do not need to lend money if they do not want to, or if they percieve the risk to be too high.  Lenders are not worrying about interest at this point, they are worried about principal.

Homesellers, I warned you, if you didn’t listen, it was your own fault, and now you are stuck.

No, the best thing for this market, and for the economy overall is a monumental housing crash. All houses immediately marked down 30-40% throughout SoCal would just about put us right with where we should be considering household formation, interest rate risk, personal incomes, affordability, and consumer debt load.

Sadly, it won’t happen that way. No, today’s sellers agents are as delusional, and as thick-skulled as they come. Transactions will likely come to a screeching halt from their already stymied location. The only thing that will move this market is need-to-sell inventory by the way of foreclosure forced sales and short-sales. Now it’s time to get down and dirty with the housing bubble.

Collectively, we could have all avoided this point, but individually, we did what each thought was the best for us and it has failed. No amount of public preaching from a blog telling people to ready themselves for the coming crash would have changed many people’s minds. I only hope that some readers have read, understood, believed, and acted upon the recommendations. You have been saved. The lemmings coming after you have only the cliffs of insanity, and the cold, hard rocks of reality below.

On the other hand, depression about (not) owning a home in Southern California occasionally grips even me. Even knowing all of the pain to come (it was a certaintly last year and the year before, so it’s still a certainty), I’m not confident that I’m interested in waiting it out here. Many of the people our age have left the area, leaving a swath of people 5 years older or 3 or 4 years younger than us. The older ones don’t understand the predicament since they don’t have it, and those younger don’t have the pressures of a peaking career and growing family. The ones before us are “over the hump”, and those younger haven’t begun looking at the hump. Periodically, I just want to throw in the proverbial towel and say “bag it”, it’s not worth the wait and just work somewhere else. If I weren’t in the middle of some big things at work and I could walk away without harming the company I work for, I would. Alas, by the time my projects slow enough for me to leave, we may already be in a recession with a difficulty finding a new job out of state.  I’ll just have to see at the beginning of next year.

My wife is not oblivious to the pressures, she feels them as well. On the other hand, it has made us realize what we don’t like about Southern California (or at least L.A. and O.C., not including S.D. or Ventura), the self-righteous, self-centered, selfish home-trust-fund babies that inhabit not only the dark corners, but the visible ones, and frankly, much of the cry-me-a-river-my-house-lost-10K-but-went-up-400K-before-that crowd that is 90% of all OC. It all but sickens us with the idiotic drivel that escapes their lips. My god, what a bunch of whiny bitches! And their wives are even worse.

Luckily, our children don’t sense the pressure, or at least not at 3 and 1. Ever feel like a failure? Just spend a few hours with your preschool kids, and it’ll change your opinion. (disclaimer, I’ve heard this only works until they are teenagers)

No, at this point, we are basically in it for the long haul. We’ve gotten over the hardest part being former owners and renters… the back side of the slop is in front of us, and it’s hardly worth leaving at this point with family here, a good job, and security… although that would change with the right job offer. I suppose that we’re not the only ones in this situation, except that if an employer needed us next week, we can break our lease. Most around us would need to sell a house in probably the worst housing market since the Great Depression.

So, all in all, I consider what I have just witnessed, and suppose that there are a number of people just like us.  We will get our house someday… regardless of what the “priced out forever” crowd of real estate agents have told us.  It is sad to see so many houses in our area begin to fall into an untended mess, but there’s no escaping that many of our neighbors just can’t afford their houses.  I can’t imagine anyone wishing ill to them, but when they were driving H3 Hummers and bragging about how much their house was worth, I had to remember that all things would return to the way they were.  The financial lessons people are learning now are hopefully strong enough to prevent a repeat, but easy enough to not sink our economy.

If you have any thoughts on staying put/leaving, leave them here.

 
29 Comments
Leave A Response
Next Entries »
Go To Top »