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Down, Down, Down. Where will it stop???

Brad_Davidson November 11th, 2008

I’m seeing a drop off in the pending sales activity and the prices this month.  Pending sales are down to 3,866 (400 less that last month this time) and median listed price of those properties is down to $375,000.  The banks are trying to move em out before the end of the year and I’m seeing many more asking prices under $300,000 in Anaheim and central Orange County for SFR’s.  There’s a Three 3 bedroom SFR in Santa Ana listed for $150,000.  WOW.

Last month the MLS shows 2,323 residential sales in October with a median price of $416,500.  Down another $12,500 from September.  What a difference two years makes.

In 2005 I sold a rental house I owned on the Westside of Costa Mesa for $500,000.  I’d had the same tenants in it for years and it as a fixer.  The buyer did a quick remodel (kitchen, baths, carpet, paint and added a garage) and sold it for $625,000.  That same house came on the market last week, as an REO, for $311,000.  50% off the price from less than 3 years ago.  OUCH.

Sales numbers are going to creep down for a few months as the end of the year is always slow.  REO sales are also slowing as the brokers are getting fewer assignments because the lenders are having to meet new notification requirements before filing foreclosure notices and holding trustee sales.  But I feel that the reports that foreclosures are tapering off is premature. So many people are upside down that the temptation to walk away will lead to many more REO’s.

While the prospects are dismal if you’re underwater, the demand for low price REO’s never ceases to amaze me.  I’m constantly seeing bidding wars for well priced property.  Ten or more offers are not uncommon and sale prices ten percent above asking don’t surprise me.

Brad Davidson

We Help-U-Buy Realty

California Congresspersons voting on the Bailout

Chuck Ponzi November 3rd, 2008

Off with their Heads!As promised, I am posting directly before the election how each of the California congresspersons voted for the massive +$700B bailout.  I believe that this number will be completely used up; I have no faith in lawmakers or the Treasury Department to make the right decision when it comes to how to steady the financial system; this money will find its way directly into the richest people’s net worth one way or another.  The only way to prevent it is to prevent disbursing money.

From ABC7

CALIFORNIA
Democrats - Baca, Y; Becerra, N; Berman, Y; Capps, Y; Cardoza, Y; Costa, Y; Davis, Y; Eshoo, Y; Farr, Y; Filner, N; Harman, Y; Honda, Y; Lee, Y; Lofgren, Zoe, Y; Matsui, Y; McNerney, Y; Miller, George, Y; Napolitano, N; Pelosi, Y; Richardson, Y; Roybal-Allard, N; Sanchez, Linda T., N; Sanchez, Loretta, N; Schiff, Y; Sherman, N; Solis, Y; Speier, Y; Stark, N; Tauscher, Y; Thompson, Y; Waters, Y; Watson, Y; Waxman, Y; Woolsey, Y.
Republicans - Bilbray, N; Bono Mack, Y; Calvert, Y; Campbell, Y; Doolittle, N; Dreier, Y; Gallegly, N; Herger, Y; Hunter, N; Issa, N; Lewis, Y; Lungren, Daniel E., Y; McCarthy, N; McKeon, Y; Miller, Gary, Y; Nunes, N; Radanovich, Y; Rohrabacher, N; Royce, N.

If you want to find your polling place or what measures are on your ballot, go to the following site.  I highly recommend using your voice to be heard, even if you believe that your cause will be defeated.

Visit SmartVoter.org

I personally will not be voting for anyone who was for the bailout.  Period.  No Exceptions.

Where is Chuck Ponzi?

Chuck Ponzi October 23rd, 2008

Chuck has been busy.  With so many things happening in the local real estate blogging community, Southern California Real Estate, National and International Financial Markets, and at home, it has been hard to formulate posts for the past 2 weeks.  However, some more are to come over the next few days.

On tap, I am going to begin reading Irvine_Renter’s new book next week.  I’ll give you all my thoughts about it and tease you with any insights that you may not have yet seen.  This financial crisis, and the US Housing bubble has been THE financial story of the 21st century.  I doubt you’ll feel like you have thus far missed much, but there is a lot to say about it and its roots I’m sure we’ll find something interesting.

As you know, I have a co-blogger, Brad Davidson of Help-U-Buy Realty here in Orange County.  I have also been approached by several other contributors who have their own specific flavor of real-estate knowledge.  With the unwinding of the housing bubble (and frankly, who can take 24by7 coverage of the carnage that is the crash of housing prices?), there are many other factors of the housing bubble consider; proper financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and the list goes on.  I’ll be adding several stories from guest bloggers from various sites for their contribution to relevant topics on Southern California Real Estate.

As far as investing, I’ll be honest, the past few months have been catastrophic for any stock (even though much of my powder is in cash, almost nothing has been spared The Great Unwind of Leverage) and I’ve been picking up some of the broken stocks here and there.  While I am not an investment advisor (and I see no reason to take my advice), if you’d like to hear it, I might be willing to give some of mine.  There are some stocks that I have been following for some time that are at what I consider “once-in-a-lifetime” opportunities and have the potential to do really well, while there are some suckers that I have found that I think even they can’t be resurrected.

Feel free to leave comments about whatever you feel like here.

Median Price Heading South of $400,000

Brad_Davidson October 6th, 2008

The median price continues to fall and if the trend holds it should be under $400,000 by year’s end.  That will be close to a 40% decline.  I believe even Chuck Ponzi is surprised.

From the figures in the MLS the Median price of all homes sold last month (September) comes in at $429,000.  That’s down another $11,000 from August.

As of October 4, 2008, there were 4,232 pending sales in Orange County with a median asking price of $399,500.  My tracking of pending sales has been an accurate predictor of future prices thus far and it will be interesting to see if the trend holds true.

I have a lot of contacts in the REO business and I’m being told that the number of BPO (broker price opinion) orders are high.  Lenders order BPO’s when a property enters foreclosure to get an idea of what the property is worth for when it’s an REO or for a short sale negotiation. These contacts feel that the next wave of foreclosures could be big.  Not surprising considering everyone who bought for about a two to three year period is underwater.

Even the house next door to mine is empty and the lawn is brown.  It would have sold for more than $800,000 two years ago.  I’m told no neighborhood will be immune in the next wave.

Brad Davidson

We Help-U-Buy Realty

Disgusted by Bailout

Chuck Ponzi September 23rd, 2008

What more is there to say?

Gamblers, thieves, whoremongers.  Seemingly unstoppable by lawmakers who care nothing for their constituents, except that the gamblers, thieves and whoremongers give them a cut on the way through.

If this passes, I will publish who voted for it and against it.  If they are not against it, they are agains the American taxpayer.  We have already rescued too many and I have had it.  No incumbents should rest on their laurels.  They are there by the grace of the citizens.

Here are some notable lies from the NYTimes:

If it works the way it should work, this is not an expenditure, it’s an investment.” — Secretary Paulson

If it were an investment, why doesn’t the Federal Reserve Bank step up and buy them?  It’s a private institution that should be interested in investment, and they can create money out of thin air.  I can assure skeptics that once the money is given, it will never come back.  Either Hank Paulson is stupid or thinks we are.  Take your pick.

In response to a question, Secretary Paulson sought to clear the air about who the bailout was supposed to help. “This is all about the American taxpayer,” he said. “That’s all we care about.”

Wow, blatant lying.  It’s about buying someone else’s mistake so they won’t have to get punished for it.  Coupled with these being friends of Hank and Bernies, and it’s cronyism at its pinnacle in history.  I fear America will not survive this.

However, I am happy that some of the members of Congress are acting like they understand the problem:

Senator Jim Bunning, Republican of Kentucky, has emerged as one of the most strident enemies of the bailout proposal, and he did not disappoint today. “It’s financial socialism, and it’s un-American,” he said in his opening statement. On Friday, he offered a eulogy for the economy, saying, “The free market for all intents and purposes is dead in America.”

Senator Elizabeth Dole, Republican of North Carolina, had some harsh words for the mortgage giants that the government took over earlier this month. “Fannie and Freddie have utterly failed to deliver on their intended purpose,” she said. “In fact, they have done just the opposite.”

We’ll see if it sticks.  I’m glad to see that some of the Republicans retain their party’s spirit besides Ron Paul.

and, the Democrats haven’t completely lost it either:

For Mr. Dodd, a larger issue was at stake in Mr. Paulson’s plan. “After reading this proposal, I can only conclude that it is not just our economy that is at risk, but our constitution as well.” Mr. Shelby echoed the point, saying the Treasury department was continuing “its ad hoc approach on a grand new scale.”

Our Constitution won’t be worth toilet paper if this passes.  It’s so sad to know that so many died for this country, defending the rights and liberties afforded by the constitution.  Only to have it shredded by fraudsters and liars.  It is truly a sad day in America.  Paulson and Bernanke are setting themselves up as enemy #1.

And, if that all depresses you, perhaps some humor about the situation will cheer you up.  I am an ardent fan of scambaiting, and wish there was some way a normal citizen and taxpayer like me could stop Bernie and Hank from making the second (or perhaps the) biggest financial mistake of the Bush Administration.  In light of this, I have discovered a satire of the bailout in the form of a 419 Nigerian email that has been going around, but found here.  The joke is that Paulson is sending this around:

Dear American:

I need to ask you to support an urgent secret business relationship with a transfer of funds of great magnitude.

I am Ministry of the Treasury of the Republic of America. My country has had crisis that has caused the need for large transfer of funds of 800 billion dollars US. If you would assist me in this transfer, it would be most profitable to you.

I am working with Mr. Phil Gram, lobbyist for UBS, who will be my replacement as Ministry of the Treasury in January. As a Senator, you may know him as the leader of the American banking deregulation movement in the 1990s. This transactin is 100% safe.

This is a matter of great urgency. We need a blank check. We need the funds as quickly as possible. We cannot directly transfer these funds in the names of our close friends because we are constantly under surveillance. My family lawyer advised me that I should look for a reliable and trustworthy person who will act as a next of kin so the funds can be transferred.

Please reply with all of your bank account, IRA and college fund account numbers and those of your children and grandchildren to wallstreetbailout@treasury.gov so that we may transfer your commission for this transaction. After I receive that information, I will respond with detailed information about safeguards that will be used to protect the funds.

Yours Faithfully Minister of Treasury Paulson

Pride of Ownership

Chuck Ponzi September 5th, 2008

I shizit you not.  You can’t make up this stuff:

Pride

6398 Tigers Eye Ct
Mira Loma, CA 91752

Description:

Beautiful 2 story home in a new community that shows a lot of pride of ownership! Maser bedroom offers a large bathroom with separate tub and shower with a lot of counter space. Other features include a brick fireplace, front covered patio, and 2 car electric garage. There is a large kitchen which offers a lot of cabinet space and an kitchen island, all this over looks into backyard. This home will definitely not last long!

To top it off:  The house appears to be bank owned.

At $93/sq ft, it’s getting close to affordability… but you’ve got to clean up the house and back yard.

Median Sales Price Numbers Falling Fast

Brad_Davidson September 3rd, 2008

Back in July I wrote about tracking the median sales price by watching the pending sales.  My theory is to look at the LIST price of pending sales and try and use that number to predict the future median sales price.  When I first ran the numbers at the end of April I found the median LIST price of the pending sales was $475,000.  When the June sales figures came out in July the median sales price was $495,000.  That’s not as close to my number as I thought it would be but I always assumed the median sales price was about a two month lagging indicator. 

There were over 4,000 pending sales when I ran the numbers in April and perhaps it takes the properties longer to run through the system than I had thought.  When the figures for July came out in August the median sales price was $466,000.  Perhaps the median sales numbers are a three month lagging indicator.

Another factor is that the sales numbers as reported in the OC Register from Data Quick include new home sales.  That definitely skews the median upward. 

In July I wrote “For the 4,183 pending sales as of July 7, 2008, the median list price is $439,000.”  Today, September 3, 2008, I looked at closed sales reported in the OCMLS and found 2,351 closed sales reported with a median sales price of $439,000. 

$439,000 seemed like an awfully big drop 2 months ago but I have been shocked at how far and how fast the market has dropped.

I also ran pending sales as of September 3, 2008, and as of today the median LIST price of all pending sales is $411,000.  That is another big drop and it looks like a cold winter for the housing market.

Brad Davidson

We Help-U-Buy Realty

Great Minds Think Alike

Chuck Ponzi July 10th, 2008

Almost as fast as I suggested 3 days ago that nationalization of Fannie and Freddie was likely, it seems that everyone has jumped on the bandwagon despite assurances.

Will they be nationalized?

Does it matter?  Lending is changed forever.

Fannie and Freddie are going to have a threesome with Uncle Sam.  Dirty, ugly, and seemingly unavoidable after 2005.  It just had to happen, the whole world went mad with real estate.  This place seems so F@$&#D up.  I am now worried more about serious social unrest coming in parts of the US.  I’m pretty ticked off and I’ve got a lot, think about those who have lost jobs and have lots of time on their hands.  I’m just sayin’, I think lawmakers need to be careful when they start committing taxpayers’ money.  It is ours, after all.

An Inexact And Unscientific Price Study

Brad_Davidson July 8th, 2008

June Sales and Future Median Prices

You’re going to hear it here first. Data Quick will be coming out with their sales figures for June in the next week but I’m going to try and beat them to the punch each month. I don’t know how my numbers are going to measure up in comparison with Data Quick’s far more detailed studies but I’m going to give it a shot. What I think will be very interesting is using pending sales to try and predict future median prices.

Here goes!! According to the totals on the MLS website, June home sales in Orange County totaled 2,176 residential properties. These are mainly resale homes as the majority of new homes are not listed in the MLS. The median sales price of these homes was approximately $475,000.

According to the MLS, May sales totaled 2,135 properties with a median price of $480,000. According to Data Quick and as published in the OC Register, there were 2,266 sales and the median price was $485,000. Given the disparity in the total sales numbers, I’m content with the $5,000 price difference and if the June number is within $5,000 of $475,000 it’s all good.

I’ve always thought that the data provided on homes sales was of marginal value. I’ve long realized that the sales figures as published by the media are a lagging indicator. The 2,176 sales in June are deals that were negotiated in April and May, some I’m sure in March. In essence the median sales figures are two months old.

As of July 7, 2008 residential listings, categorized as pending sales or in back up offers total 4,183 properties. I’ve been tracking this number for the past few months and find it interesting that there are typically twice as many pending sales and back up offers as there are closed sales for the prior month.

A far more interesting number I’ve been tracking is the median list price of the homes categorized as pending or in back up offers.

I wanted to come up with a median sales figure that would be more current and perhaps be a better market gauge than numbers that were essentially two months old. I first tracked the list price of homes in pending sales on April 31, 2008. This is the unscientific part because I’m tracking the price the properties are listed at, not the sales price. While unscientific, my first set of numbers hold up remarkably well. The median listed price of pending sales and back up offers was $475,000 as of April 30, 2008. The same price as I show for closed sales for the month of June 2008!

While I have read that the median sales price number has ticked up a bit, it’s not what I see in pending sales. For the 4,183 pending sales as of July 7, 2008, the median list price is $439,000. If that number were to hold up when the actual sales figures for August are released in September, it would be a continuing slaughter for the OC real estate market. I think the median number will be higher because there are a lot of short sales and REO’s in the pending sales that actually sell for over the list price.

Then again, when I first ran these numbers in April and came up with the $475,000 median, data Quick had just released the March numbers showing a median of $506,000. $475,000 seemed pretty low then too.

I hear Orange County is looking for a new real estate oracle now that Gary Watts has publicly apologized for being wrong. I’ll track these number every month and report here and see how I do.

Brad Davidson
We Help-U-Buy Realty

The Banks Get a Beat Down

Brad_Davidson June 24th, 2008

I see every day how badly the banks are getting hammered on the bad loans they made. It’s made me a lot of money shorting banks stocks and writing puts.

Here are some prime examples of the losses they’re taking.

 23 Leeds

23 Leeds Ln., Aliso Viejo

3bdr 2ba 1800 sqft. On the market for $489,000. This house sold for $685,000 in May 2004. We weren’t even at the peak yet in 2004. The buyers put $75,000 down when they bought but pulled that same $75,000 out a year later. The bank eats the entire $685,000 plus the 4 to 6 month of payments that weren’t made plus 6% of the sales price going to commissions.

Let’s add it up: (all rough numbers but close enough)

Price difference    $196,000

Missed payments $ 18,000

Commission           $ 29,000

                               $ 243,000

2 or 3 different lenders are losing $243,000 on a $685,000 loan. That’s a 35% loss. And we’re talking Aliso Viejo, an area of relative stability.

Next.

21595-audubon.jpg

21595 Audubon Way, Lake Forest

3brd 2 ba, 1070 sqft. On the market for $372,500. This house sold for $605,000 in November 2005. 100% financing. Interesting fact…. the Trustees sale date in the tax record is dated 5/29/08. The bank took this property back less than a month ago.

Here’s what the banks lost:

Price difference     $233,000

Missed payments $ 17,000

Commission      $ 30,000

                           $270,000

Lenders are losing $270,000 on a $605,000 loan. That’s a 44% loss. I’m really surprised at how hard hit Lake Forest has been. I’ve always thought of it as a desirable area.

Here is the winner, or loser if you own stock in large lending institutions.

1609-s-woodland.jpg

1609 S. Woodland Pl., Santa Ana

3 bdr 2 ba 1290 sqft. On the market for $305,000. Sold for $587,000 in August 2005. 100% financing through New Century. Plus they got a $25,000 equity loan from BofA in 2006.

Bank Loses

Price difference     $ 282,000

Missed payments  $   17,000

Equity loan             $  25,000

Commission            $  18,000

                                 $352,000

Lenders are losing $352,000 on a $587,000 loan. That’s a 60% Hit!!!! That is a big fat red mark on the balance sheet and there are hundreds more in Santa Ana.

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