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<channel>
	<title>Southern California Real Estate Bubble Crash Blog</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.socalbubble.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.socalbubble.com</link>
	<description>Southern California is Experiencing a Real Estate Bubble like never before</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Thu, 16 Dec 2010 20:16:25 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Is Gold a bubble?</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/12/is-gold-a-bubble.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/12/is-gold-a-bubble.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Dec 2010 20:16:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bubble]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=991</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>15</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Don&#8217;t worry be Happy</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/12/dont-worry-be-happy.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/12/dont-worry-be-happy.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Dec 2010 17:56:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=988</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A couple of videos to make you think on the week following Thanksgiving.  I don&#8217;t endorse all of the ideals posted here, but an informed population is hard to lead astray: This one has kind of a Saturday Night Live feel, but serious message. If, after that, you&#8217;re not sure if you should laugh or [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A couple of videos to make you think on the week following Thanksgiving.  I don&#8217;t endorse all of the ideals posted here, but an informed population is hard to lead astray:</p>
<p>This one has kind of a Saturday Night Live feel, but serious message.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/12/dont-worry-be-happy.html"><em>Click here to view the embedded video.</em></a></p>
<p>If, after that, you&#8217;re not sure if you should laugh or cry, this should lift your spirits.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/12/dont-worry-be-happy.html"><em>Click here to view the embedded video.</em></a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>8</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>No Frog March for Mozilo</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/10/no-frog-march-for-mozilo.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/10/no-frog-march-for-mozilo.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Oct 2010 20:25:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=983</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After Mozilo sold Countrywide, the most trash-filled piece of financial garbage to some rich fools who soon became parted with their money, many in the bubble blogosphere assumed that at the very least, some criminal activity had taken place by CEO Angelo Mozilo who had reaped more than $300 Million (yes, you read that correctly) [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After Mozilo sold Countrywide, the most trash-filled piece of financial garbage to some rich fools who soon became parted with their money, many in the bubble blogosphere assumed that at the very least, some criminal activity had taken place by CEO Angelo Mozilo who had reaped more than $300 Million (yes, you read that correctly) in sale of his stock.</p>
<p>Imagine all of our surprise when not only did nothing happen, but we heard nothing of the matter whatsoever.  What ever happened to financial fraud?</p>
<p>Well, at least the SEC had enough presence of mind to <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mozilo-to-pay-millions-in-rb-1656986382.html?x=0&amp;sec=topStories&amp;pos=main&amp;asset=&amp;ccode=">fine the crap out of him</a> and get a settlement check.  Hurry, quick, I would cash it right away, but don&#8217;t spend it all in one place, you might need to hire some people to investigate all of the other financial frauds you&#8217;re responsible for finding.  (Madoff, Stanford, etc)</p>
<p>Actually, I just hope they don&#8217;t blow it all on <a href="http://www.stylehive.com/bookmark/hightech-goldplated-toilet-demands-250000-euros-born-rich-590775">gold-plated toilets</a> and <a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/04/report_finds_33_sec_employees.html">Porn Parties</a>.</p>
<p>Either way, I&#8217;m glad to see SOMETHING happen.  Couldn&#8217;t happen to a nicer guy, too.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/mozilo.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-984" title="mozilo" src="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/mozilo-400x270.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="270" /></a></p>
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		<slash:comments>3</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Buying A House</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/09/buying-a-house.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/09/buying-a-house.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Sep 2010 19:05:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bubble]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreclosures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moving]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Psychology]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=979</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As readers have no doubt noticed, my posting has become more and more erratic and eventually fallen off of a cliff. Part of that is because my professional life has come to the forefront since it is firing on all cylinders; advancements in that area come with a price tag, and the other part is [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As readers have no doubt noticed, my posting has become more and more erratic and eventually fallen off of a cliff.</p>
<p>Part of that is because my professional life has come to the forefront since it is firing on all cylinders; advancements in that area come with a price tag, and the other part is because I have been diligently seeking a home for my family.  With a third addition to our family, we have decided that while there is still a great deal of danger in the housing market, we have decided to purchase a home.  Make no mistake, I am not advocating buying a house at the present time for financial reasons, I think we have a lot of malaise at the present time, but after all is told, it is about the same price as renting, since interest rates are very low.  I intend to occupy the house for a long period of time, making my entry point less important to my longer-term emotional and psychological well being of my family.</p>
<p>If anyone wondered, yes the house is a foreclosure, and yes it requires a lot of work.  I highly recommend having a good agent in your corner, since negotiating without one doesn&#8217;t strengthen your position, and my agent, Brad Davidson offers a rebate of a portion of his commission to offset your efforts in finding the house.  If you&#8217;re in the market, I recommend contacting him at <a href="http://wehelpubuy.com/">WeHelpUBuy Realty</a>.  He&#8217;s a good friend and excellent agent.</p>
<p>In the end, we waited over 6 years before becoming homeowners again, we found that the emotional decision to buy a home is quite powerful for people that have already owned; it was for us.</p>
<p>Feel free to ask any questions that you might have in the comments; I will be as honest as I can, keeping my identity private.</p>
<p>Any thoughts?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>44</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Nope, still not there yet.</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/06/nope-still-not-there-yet.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/06/nope-still-not-there-yet.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jun 2010 17:05:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bubble]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California Insolvency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dead Cat Bounce]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=976</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Source: here]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Crisis-Curve-600-DPI.jpg"><img src="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Crisis-Curve-600-DPI-400x389.jpg" alt="" title="Crisis Curve" width="400" height="389" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-977" /></a></p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.americanpressinstitute.org/pages/resources/2008/11/ceo_summit_on_saving_an_indust/">here</a></p>
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		<slash:comments>10</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>&#8220;If this trend (of walking away) continues, then the banking system is probably insolvent&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/06/if-this-trend-of-walking-away-continues-then-the-banking-system-is-probably-insolvent.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/06/if-this-trend-of-walking-away-continues-then-the-banking-system-is-probably-insolvent.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jun 2010 16:20:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Unintended Consequences]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=969</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Felix Salmon, blogger of the New York Times has done a good job of following what strategic, or otherwise, defaulters have been doing for some time.  I would say that not only is the trend going to continue, it will likely be the death of the housing market.  Because, if you think about it, why [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Felix Salmon, blogger of the New York Times has done a good job of following what strategic, or otherwise, defaulters have been doing for some time.  I would say that not only is the trend going to continue, it will likely be the death of the housing market.  Because, if you think about it, why would someone continue to pay if they know that they can live rent or payment free for more than 2 years.</p>
<p><object width="400" height="300"><embed height="300" width="400" allowscriptaccess="always" src="http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/fop/embedflv/swf/fop_wrapper.swf?id=20117967&#038;autoStart=0&#038;prepanelEnable=1&#038;infopanelEnable=1&#038;carouselEnable=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"></embed></object></p>
<p>People normally only lived in their homes for 5 years, and according to FHA standards, you can buy 3 years after a foreclosure.  With the money saved from payments, you could live for nearly half of the cost of renting, only suffering occasional negative credit events.  Throw in a good age discrimination lawsuit, or some other such rubbish, and I suppose someone who is 60+ could live quite a long time in a home without paying.</p>
<p>I often relate back to a friend of mine who TRIED to give back their mansion in Laguna Niguel for 26 months.  The banks FINALLY took it back only after a short sale.  If someone wanted to, they could drag out the foreclosure process with regular short sale offers and requests for 3 or more years, I believe.  In Southern California, where rents on SFH&#8217;s can be 3K+ per month, that means that a person could amass over 100K in that time, sufficient enough to live off of for some time afterwards.  One could be debt free otherwise, have lavish vacations, buy luxury cars, or simply save by stopping payments on their home.</p>
<p>And, so long as the banking system is in a state of quasi-nationalization, there is no reason for the banking system to foreclose.  In the present state where all foreclosures are seen as BAD in the mainstream media, banks would rather suckle off of Uncle Sam&#8217;s teat than try to force deadbeats to pay up; it&#8217;s a politically stable decision.  Indeed, it seems we are approaching the day when the US Government is paying everyone&#8217;s mortgage, at least indirectly in the name of maintaining our financial system.  Ironically, many of us laughed inside when we saw the clip of the girl screaming &#8220;Obama gonna pay mah mortgage!&#8221;.  The laugh, it seems, is on us.  He is &#8220;gonna pay (our) mortgage!&#8221;  Well, actually not mine, I rent.  Only in today&#8217;s America, can we see that renters are treated with such disdain that they get neither tax breaks, legal protection equal to homedebtors, nor could we have our payments stealth-subsidized like deadbeats do.  If there is no god, there must at least be a karma out there ready to bitch-slap our country something fierce.  There will be consequences to the federal government paying everyone&#8217;s mortgage, and I only hope that if that means a total collapse of our country&#8217;s fiscal state that many of us who were conservative will be able to escape with a portion of our hard work&#8217;s output intact.</p>
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		<slash:comments>15</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Steve Wynn Rant on Housing</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/05/steve-wynn-rant-on-housing.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/05/steve-wynn-rant-on-housing.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 May 2010 22:39:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/05/steve-wynn-rant-on-housing.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
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</object></p>
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		<slash:comments>5</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>&#8220;California has no low-hanging fruit left&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/05/california-has-no-low-hanging-fruit-left.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/05/california-has-no-low-hanging-fruit-left.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 May 2010 21:02:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[California Insolvency]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=961</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Schwarzenegger is appearing to do what we all hope the termed-out governor would do.  Cutting.  Axing.  Hacking.  Removing. In his own words, there are no more low-hanging fruit (in his mind) in the California budget.  Of course, that&#8217;s only if you ignore the elephant in the room which includes the government employees&#8217; exorbitant pay and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/traxe.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full  wp-image-962" title="Schwarzenegger and the Axe" src="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/traxe.jpg" alt="" width="296" height="259" /></a>Schwarzenegger is appearing to do what we all hope the termed-out governor would do.  Cutting.  Axing.  Hacking.  Removing.</p>
<p>In his own words, there are no more low-hanging fruit (in his mind) in the California budget.  Of course, that&#8217;s only if you ignore the elephant in the room which includes the government employees&#8217; exorbitant pay and benefits packages, or if you ignore the no-bid public services contracts.  Yeah, there&#8217;s nothing else to cut except major portions of the budget.</p>
<p>From the LA <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/local/politics/la-me-state-budget-20100515,0,7750555.story">Times</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Elimination of CalWorks, the state&#8217;s main welfare-to-work program, would  affect 1.3 million people, including about 1 million children. Average  family grants are around $500 per month. Abolishing those payments would  save the state more than $1 billion, the administration said.</p>
<p>Families would also lose state-subsidized day care under the governor&#8217;s  proposal; about 142,000 low-income children would be affected. The state  would save $1.2 billion with such a cut. Preschool and after-school  care would remain in place, as would some federally subsidized day care  for the neediest children.</p>
<p>Local school funding would remain at its current amount. Education  officials say that amounts to a multibillion-dollar cut, as they won&#8217;t  have the funds to cover scheduled cost-of-living raises and other  increases. Education spending has already been rolled back  substantially, forcing many districts to impose layoffs, eliminate  programs and increase class sizes.</p>
<p>The governor had been expected to call for the elimination of in-home  healthcare for the elderly and disabled. Instead, he proposed cutting  roughly a third of the program&#8217;s budget to save $637.1 million. Previous  efforts to scale back the program have been blocked in federal court.  Schwarzenegger&#8217;s budget does not say how the new attempt would withstand  a legal challenge, citing future &#8220;consultation with stakeholders.&#8221;</p>
<p>The plan would reduce prison costs by shifting the responsibility for  state inmates to the local level, as the governor has proposed before.  The state would save $244 million by sending low-level felons to local  jails instead of state prisons. Counties would receive $11,500 per  offender to help pay for probation, drug courts, and &#8220;alternative&#8221;  methods of custody, such as home detention.</p>
<p>The governor is proposing to borrow $880 million in gas tax revenue and  other funds from state transportation programs to help balance the  budget. He has also revived a plan to raise more than $200 million by  installing automated cameras to ticket speeding drivers at red-light  intersections across the state.</p></blockquote>
<p>As I travelled to work this morning, I wondered to myself what would happen the state took seriously the enforcement of traffic rules&#8230; yikes!</p>
<p>These austerity measures only serve to exacerbate the problem.  Indeed, this is precisely why governments should end structural deficits, because then there is nothing to borrow in times when it is really needed.  Nothing was set aside in California in the past 30 years.  Nothing.</p>
<p>If our seven fat years are behind us and we look forward only to 7 lean years, California will most assuredly be emptying out.  This does not bode well for housing prices going up in Southern California any time soon; not that I thought they ever would.</p>
<p>Even after these cuts, it appears that this will only partially solve the shortfall.  <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/schwarzenegger-takes-ax-to-california-budget-2010-05-14">Up to 50% more in cuts may be necessary</a>.</p>
<p>Arnie, get your axe!</p>
<p><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/conan-barbarian-1982-14.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-966" title="Arnie, get your axe!" src="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/conan-barbarian-1982-14-400x260.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="260" /></a></p>
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		<slash:comments>9</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Title Says It All</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/05/title-says-it-all.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/05/title-says-it-all.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 May 2010 22:24:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=952</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From Business Insider:  T2 Lays out a Case for Double-Dip in House Prices.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/t2-partners-housing-market-2010-5#-25">Business Insider:  T2 Lays out a Case for Double-Dip in House Prices</a>.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/t210.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-955" title="t210" src="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/t210-400x300.jpg" alt="If Home Prices Drop 10%, The Percentage of Underwater Homeowners Increases by 56%" width="400" height="300" /></a></p>
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		<slash:comments>5</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Was it a Housing Bubble?</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/05/was-it-a-housing-bubble.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/05/was-it-a-housing-bubble.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 May 2010 05:37:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=942</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Casey Mulligan of the University of Chicago Economics wrote a great article at the New York Times today that explores the possibility that a significant portion of the housing bubble was actually justified, and that the new normal that we have reached might be some how a new normal.  You really should read the entire [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Casey Mulligan of the University of Chicago Economics wrote a <a href="http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/05/what-it-really-a-bubble/?partner=rss&amp;emc=rss">great article at the New York Times</a> today that explores the possibility that a significant portion of the housing bubble was actually justified, and that the new normal that we have reached might be some how a new normal.  You really should read the entire article because it clearly dissects with a factual and reasoned bias, just how much housing prices should be.</p>
<p>From The Bubble Side:</p>
<blockquote><p>Meanwhile, bubble theorists also say that today America is “overbuilt”  as a result of the bubble.  With too much housing and no additional  demand to be supported by market fundamentals, real housing prices  should, according to the bubble theory, be <em>lower</em> today than  they were in the late 1990s.</p></blockquote>
<p>From the Non Bubble Side</p>
<blockquote><p>But another interpretation is that a large fraction of the housing price  boom was justified by fundamentals (and next week I’ll consider some of  the specific fundamentals that may have permanently increased housing  demand in the 2000s).  If so, we are probably asking too much of the  Federal Reserve and other regulators to accurately disentangle bubbles  from fundamentals the next time that asset prices rise.</p></blockquote>
<p>I&#8217;m very much looking forward to his next installment, if this one is any gauge to the next one.</p>
<p>However, I&#8217;ll point out some concerns that I already have with the generic type of analysis.</p>
<p>1.  I&#8217;ll side with many real estate agents in this in one way: Real Estate is local.  Yes, you heard me right.  However, this only damns places like Orange County and LA more than Inland California.  While the inland areas have fallen as much as 80% in some areas, much of the coastal areas have remained priced barely below peak pricing.  While the pressure in some areas is upward, much of the higher priced homes still have significant pricing problems, most notably manifested as years&#8217; worth of inventory.  Getting into Million+ homes and in some cases there are possibly decades of inventory at current prices and volume.  We&#8217;d need to create a lot more wealth outside of housing to support the current prices.</p>
<p>2.  Tax benefits are currently a major sticking point for many areas.  With so much uncertainty about the future of our fiscal problems, both at a state and national level, one can expect a pretty significant overhaul in this area.  Especially when considering that it would require an income substantially within the current executive administration&#8217;s definition of wealthy, and therefore fair game for further taxation.</p>
<p>3.  I think Mulligan is oversimplifying the &#8220;bubble theory&#8221;.  He assumes that bubble believers simply extrapolate based on inflation adjusted housing prices, leaving the above issues aside and ignoring the elephant in the room, credit prices (interest rates) and credit availability (looseness).  There must be some factor that addresses the issues of credit, perhaps in the form of some coefficient (we can be assured that this is not 1), or as some derivative (because of the risk of selling into a restricted or pricier credit market).  These mean that housing prices cannot be reflected dollar for dollar by interest rates, but rather a portion of lower interest rates while a portion goes to reward the borrower for taking on the risk of buying in a cheaper credit environment and selling in a pricier one.  Few buyers consider the full 30 year or longer amortization of a loan in each and every home purchase.  It is, after all, a place to live for the time being.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, this type of open debate means that at least we can consider the option and decide for ourselves, which if anyone remembers, is a far cry in sentiment from the bubble days of 2005 when the mere mention of a housing bubble would cause eye rolls and latent anger.  I believe that there is overwhelming evidence that Coastal California has a significant imbalance between incomes and housing prices still to resolve.  One has got to give sooner or later.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">As a parting shot, I&#8217;ll present Mulligan&#8217;s chart which shows typical bubble theory pricing (lower than 1990&#8242;s).  I&#8217;d put my own thinking a bit between both of them.  I think people are still way too optimistic about housing in much of Southern California, and it&#8217;s reflected in the house prices.  When it fails to deliver the goods, the actual price appreciation will need to eventually erase the &#8220;bubble gains&#8221; of the past decade.<a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/mulliganbubble.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-943" title="mulliganbubble" src="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/mulliganbubble-400x279.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="279" /></a></p>
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		<title>California&#8217;s Fiscal Woes Haven&#8217;t Gone Away</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/05/californias-fiscal-woes-havent-gone-away.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/05/californias-fiscal-woes-havent-gone-away.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 May 2010 19:39:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[California Insolvency]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=934</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As many expected, California&#8217;s recent lightening of the budget problems were just an aberration and reality has once again kicked in. Arnold is under attack from all sides, everyone thinks they have a better solution.  As a term-limited governor, his best options are to take drastic measures and leave a legacy of strong footing.  We&#8217;ll [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As many expected, California&#8217;s recent lightening of the budget problems were just an aberration and reality has once again kicked in.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/05/californias-fiscal-woes-havent-gone-away.html"><em>Click here to view the embedded video.</em></a></p>
<p>Arnold is under attack from all sides, everyone thinks they have a better solution.  As a term-limited governor, his best options are to take drastic measures and leave a legacy of strong footing.  We&#8217;ll see.</p>
<p>There is so much waste, fraud, and abuse in our California government, one of the worst in pension benefits for state, county, and local employees.  I wish everyone could have a pension, but the waste and abuse have made that not possible.  Gaming the system within California has been raised to an art form.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-state-budget-20100504,0,680610.story">LA Times tells us</a> that the reprieve California had believed it had won with an improving economy has been erased in April.</p>
<blockquote><p>The April collections came almost entirely from personal income taxes.  Most corporate and sales taxes have not yet been reported. If they, too,  come in below projections, the state&#8217;s budget problem would grow worse.</p>
<p>The decline sets Sacramento back as next month&#8217;s deadline for passing a  budget approaches. Lawmakers face a deficit of $18.6 billion — about 20%  of general fund spending — with no easy options left for addressing it,  as they have already cut state services severely and temporarily raised  income, sales and vehicle taxes.</p>
<p>&#8220;One pillar of the budget solution just got destroyed, and there&#8217;s  nothing that can happen between now and June that can get back the $3  billion,&#8221; said Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study  of the California Economy.</p></blockquote>
<p>I suspect that the elections in California will prove to be polarizing this year.  Even the <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/california/election_2010_california_governor">Rasmussen polls</a> show the state is deeply divided with plenty of room still to run, politics are shaped by economics this year more than in recent memory.</p>
<p>The more California raises taxes, the more productive companies and people flee the state.  The more benefits it offers, the more that don&#8217;t have them will flock here.  It&#8217;s a display of perverse incentives.  Unless there is some outside force that generates significant growth and inflation, we have many more years to suffer economic unpleasantness.</p>
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		<title>Yet Another Reason Boom-Bust Cycles Are Bad</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/04/yet-another-reason-boom-bust-cycles-are-bad.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/04/yet-another-reason-boom-bust-cycles-are-bad.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Apr 2010 17:21:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bubble]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=915</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Malinvestment. Misallocation of Resources. Schiff is right AGAIN Our next bubble is still building. This blog could go on forever!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Malinvestment.</p>
<p>Misallocation of Resources.</p>
<p>Schiff is right AGAIN</p>
<p><object width="400" height="300"><embed height="300" width="400" allowscriptaccess="always" src="http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/fop/embedflv/swf/fop_wrapper.swf?id=19364965&#038;autoStart=0&#038;prepanelEnable=1&#038;infopanelEnable=1&#038;carouselEnable=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"></embed></object></p>
<p>Our next bubble is still building.  This blog could go on forever!</p>
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		<slash:comments>5</slash:comments>
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		<title>Marie Antionette = Maria Bartiromo</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/04/marie-antionette-maria-bartiromo.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/04/marie-antionette-maria-bartiromo.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Apr 2010 18:12:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[morality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rants]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=911</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Every once in a while, some personality who has little sense other than a basic understanding of economics gives a rationale that is so absolutely appalling, that it requires one to filter out everything they say after that point. Maria Bartiromo is one such person after her tirade on Tech Ticker. She says &#8220;I don&#8217;t [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Every once in a while, some personality who has little sense other than a basic understanding of economics gives a rationale that is so absolutely appalling, that it requires one to filter out everything they say after that point.</p>
<p>Maria Bartiromo is one such person after her tirade on Tech Ticker.</p>
<p>She says &#8220;I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s anything wrong with boom-bust economies, personally.&#8221;</p>
<p><object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="292" height="219" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"><param name="src" value="http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/fop/embedflv/swf/fop_wrapper.swf?id=19291255&amp;autoStart=0&amp;prepanelEnable=1&amp;infopanelEnable=1&amp;carouselEnable=0" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="292" height="219" src="http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/fop/embedflv/swf/fop_wrapper.swf?id=19291255&amp;autoStart=0&amp;prepanelEnable=1&amp;infopanelEnable=1&amp;carouselEnable=0"></embed></object></p>
<p>Well, Maria, if I have to tell you, I&#8217;m sure you&#8217;ll have little understanding of it.</p>
<p>From a technical STRICTLY ECONOMICS perspective, she may be right.  Bubbles, which are primarily made of excesses, produce something of substantial value to many over the medium or longer run.  Unfortunately, you can&#8217;t feed your families, clothe them, or tell them bedtime stories with economic growth.  The fundamental mismatch between Ms. Bartiromo&#8217;s understanding of how the world works in economics and GDP growth with boots-on-the-ground economic realities of individuals is fundamentally flawed.  You see, this is about HUMAN SUFFERING, not about a few percentage points of output.  You see, happiness is not measured in economics by the average, but rather by the disparity.</p>
<p>In fact, consider the tale of 2 countries</p>
<p>Consider Country A, whose GDP is $1Trillion, but 95% of that goes to 1 single person with the remainder shared among the the rest of society who lives in abject poverty compared with Country B with an equal number of people with only $800Billion GDP shared almost equally with a large and stable middle class.  Would you say there is more human suffering in Country A or Country B?  It&#8217;s clear that while these are caricatures of economies, I can&#8217;t imagine anyone concluding that people in country A are happier with a higher GDP per capita than Country B.  It&#8217;s all about access to opportunity and a level playing field.  We are looking less and less like B and more and more like A.</p>
<p>You see, Ms. Bartiromo, it&#8217;s not about the level of economic output, it&#8217;s about <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_inequality">economic inequality</a>.  If there is any morality in the world (and I believe there is), it should be to provide opportunity for ALL to build wealth.  This isn&#8217;t about socialism or capitalism, there is sufficient abundance in this world for ALL to have an excellent quality of life, excellent education, and access to redress for harm.  Unfortunately, the middle class has been under assail for too long in this country.  Economic equality equals more political stability, and the key to economic equality is protection for the poor, and limits for the rich.</p>
<p>Her galling out-of-touchness with America is appalling.  It&#8217;s the modern-day equivalent of Marie Antoinette&#8217;s famous &#8220;if they have not bread, let them eat cake&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>MIRAGE</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/04/mirage.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/04/mirage.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Apr 2010 20:44:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=908</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[High value retirees are going to bail us out of our overpriced homes in California? Oops, guess not now that we have budget problems, and taxes are only likely to get worse. I thought there was only &#8220;Taxachussets&#8221;, but now it seems that California is probably the worst place to retire financially.  I guess paradise [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>High value retirees are going to bail us out of our overpriced homes in California?</p>
<p>Oops, <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/109229/lowest-tax-states-for-retirees?mod=fidelity-livingretirement">guess not</a> now that we have budget problems, and taxes are only likely to get worse.</p>
<p>I thought there was only &#8220;Taxachussets&#8221;, but now it seems that California is probably the worst place to retire financially.  I guess paradise costs, right?</p>
<blockquote><p>The most expensive, and therefore worst, state for retirees is  California. Seniors in the highest tax bracket not only pay a whopping  10.55 percent income tax rate, but they also pay an 8.25 percent sales  tax each time they go shopping. For a few people, though, the draw of  Napa Valley, Hollywood celebrity sightings, and Yosemite might be worth  the cost.</p></blockquote>
<p>True, just be rich if you come here.</p>
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		<title>Foreclosure Prevention</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/03/foreclosure-prevention.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/03/foreclosure-prevention.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Apr 2010 03:43:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=905</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Of course, if he &#8220;owned&#8221; a house, he could live for several years without worry.  Nice.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/03/foreclosure-prevention.html"><em>Click here to view the embedded video.</em></a></p>
<p>Of course, if he &#8220;owned&#8221; a house, he could live for several years without worry.  Nice.</p>
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		<title>Extraordinary Delusions and the Madness of Crowds</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/03/extraordinary-delusions-and-the-madness-of-crowds.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/03/extraordinary-delusions-and-the-madness-of-crowds.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Mar 2010 18:48:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=903</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the first alarm subsided, the tulip-holders in the several towns held public meetings to devise what measures were best to be taken to restore public credit. It was generally agreed that deputies should be sent from all parts to Amsterdam, to consult with the government upon some remedy for the evil. The government at [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>When the first alarm subsided, the tulip-holders in the several towns held public meetings to devise what measures were best to be taken to restore public credit. It was generally agreed that deputies should be sent from all parts to Amsterdam, to consult with the government upon some remedy for the evil. The government at first refused to interfere, but advised the tulip-holders to agree to some plan among themselves. Several meetings were held for this purpose; but no measure could be devised likely to give satisfaction to the deluded people, or repair even a slight portion of the mischief that had been done. The language of complaint and reproach was in every body&#8217;s mouth, and all the meetings were of the most stormy character. At last, however, after much bickering and ill-will, it was agreed, at Amsterdam, by the assembled deputies, that all contracts made in the height of the mania, or prior to the month of November, 1636, should be declared null and void, and that, in those made after that date, purchasers should be freed from their engagements, on paying ten per cent to the vendor. This decision gave no satisfaction. The vendors who had their tulips on hand were, of course, discontented, and those who had pledged themselves to purchase, thought themselves hardly treated. Tulips which had, at one time, been worth six thousand florins, were now to be procured for five hundred; so that the composition of ten per cent was one hundred florins more than the actual value., Actions for breach of contract were threatened in all the courts of the country; but the latter refused to take cognisance of gambling transactions.</p>
<p>The matter was finally referred to the Provincial Council at the Hague, and it was confidently expected that the wisdom of this body would invent some measure by which credit should be restored. Expectation was on the stretch for its decision, but it never came. The members continued to deliberate week after week, and at last, after thinking about it for three months, declared that they could offer no final decision until they had more information. They advised, however, that, in the meantime, every vendor should, in the presence of witnesses, offer the tulips in naturta to the purchaser for the sums agreed upon. If the latter refused to take them, they might be put up for sale by public auction, and the original contractor held responsible for the difference between the actual and the stipulated price. This was exactly the plan recommended by the deputies, and which was already shown to be of no avail. There was no court in Holland which would enforce payment. The question was raised in Amsterdam, but the judges unanimously refused to interfere, on the ground that debts contracted in gambling were no debts in law.</p>
<p>Thus the matter rested. To find a remedy was beyond the power of the government. Those who were unlucky enough to have had stores of tulips on hand at the time of the sudden reaction were left to bear their ruin as philosophically as they could; those who had made profits were allowed to keep them; but the commerce of the country suffered a severe shock, from which it was many years ere it recovered.</p></blockquote>
<p>Remind anyone of something?</p>
<p>All because of tulips; consider how much worse a housing mania can be.  Look to Japan if you want to see how housing bubbles end.  Theirs ended in 1990.</p>
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		<title>Impossible Hamster</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/03/impossible-hamster.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/03/impossible-hamster.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Mar 2010 23:38:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=901</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thanks, LOLFED]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks, <a href="http://lolfed.com/2010/03/17/wednesday-fun-links/">LOLFED</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/03/impossible-hamster.html"><em>Click here to view the embedded video.</em></a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Is a Short Sale Right for You?</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/03/is-a-short-sale-right-for-you.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/03/is-a-short-sale-right-for-you.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Mar 2010 23:16:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=898</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mark Roth answers the question in Businessweek yesterday. I say yeah, right. In most cases, short sales are heavily weighted towards the lender in California.  In many cases, borrowers are better off allowing foreclosure.  Tell the bank to pound sand. Of course, this is not a moral discourse.  I&#8217;ll assume that you&#8217;ve done your diligence [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mark Roth answers the question in <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/mar2010/bw20100325_243379.htm">Businessweek</a> yesterday.</p>
<p>I say yeah, right.</p>
<p>In most cases, short sales are heavily weighted towards the lender in California.  In many cases, borrowers are better off allowing foreclosure.  Tell the bank to pound sand.</p>
<p>Of course, this is not a moral discourse.  I&#8217;ll assume that you&#8217;ve done your diligence in trying to keep your property, and haven&#8217;t heloced the heck out of the place.</p>
<p>Is a short sale right for you?  In most cases, no.  Mark is dead wrong about California.</p>
<p>What do you think?</p>
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		<slash:comments>4</slash:comments>
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		<title>Coincidence?</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/03/coincidence.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/03/coincidence.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Mar 2010 17:55:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Dead Cat Bounce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Delusion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Denial]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=888</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From money-watch.co.uk From Calculated Risk DCB?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From <a href="http://money-watch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/manias-bubbles.jpg">money-watch.co.uk</a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/manias-bubbles.jpg"><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/manias-bubbles1.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-894" title="manias-bubbles" src="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/manias-bubbles1-400x307.jpg" alt="manias-bubbles" width="400" height="307" /></a><br />
</a></p>
<p>From <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/first-american-corelogic-house-prices.html">Calculated Risk</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/LoanPerformanceJan20101.jpg"><br />
</a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/LoanPerformanceJan2010.jpg"><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/LoanPerformanceJan20102.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-896" title="LoanPerformanceJan2010" src="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/LoanPerformanceJan20102-400x270.jpg" alt="LoanPerformanceJan2010" width="400" height="270" /></a><br />
</a>DCB?</p>
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		<title>The Power of Experience</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/03/the-power-of-experience.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/03/the-power-of-experience.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Mar 2010 06:30:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Deflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Delusion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Denial]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=886</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One of the most powerful experiences that investment bubbles can teach us collectively is how conservative we should  be when burned multiple times.  Unfortunately, for many of those newly exiting business schools or unaffected by a downturn show an uncanny ability to ignore others&#8217; experiences.  The most powerful lessons of this past &#8220;lost decade&#8221; in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One of the most powerful experiences that investment bubbles can teach us collectively is how conservative we should  be when burned multiple times.  Unfortunately, for many of those newly exiting business schools or unaffected by a downturn show an uncanny ability to ignore others&#8217; experiences.  The most powerful lessons of this past &#8220;lost decade&#8221; in the US (if we will but open our eyes to learn it) is that outsized returns cannot be depended on, and that risk does not equal reward, it just means risk.</p>
<p>CALPERS, the California Public Retirement Pension fund is about to learn that lesson the hard way. Formed in the 30&#8242;s, but built on the back of the 50s through the 80&#8242;s, it&#8217;s investment options expanded from solely bonds to real estate, to equities.  During this time, America experienced the greatest growth of real estate, equity, and bond values.  But most of all, of leverage.  Sadly, most of the value &#8220;growth&#8221; in the US over the past 20 or so years has been attributed directly to monetary growth.  Indeed, as yields on lower risk returns shrink, perception of higher risk equity values go up.  Unfortunately, for many, this mirage has much more power, and this perception that trees grow to the sky and all charts go up and to the right meant that there was little risk in promising free healthcare and pensions to the moon for all who worked for the grand state of California.</p>
<p>Except that it can&#8217;t.  The high profile failure of CALPERS has been nothing short of stunning.  Having lost more than 30% of its total value in 2008, it is unclear how the future promises made to state employees can be filled.  Especially when those promises are built on expectations that returns are 7.75% over the long run.</p>
<p><a href="http://articles.sfgate.com/2010-03-02/business/18371953_1_calpers-million-investment-san-francisco">SFGate recently reported</a> that they are considering lowering their benchmark rate above.  As reported:</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>Larry Fink</strong>, CEO of the giant money management firm, <strong>BlackRock Inc</strong>., with which CalPERS has invested, told its board in July, &#8220;You&#8217;ll be lucky to get 6 percent on your portfolios, maybe 5 percent.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Even that might be optimistic.  When mortgages were returning 10% and you could expect a 1% chargeoff ratio and a 1% management fee, you could maybe meet the goal with a moderate amount of leverage.  When mortgages are yielding sub 5% and chargeoffs and management fees eat up most of that, you&#8217;d have to create an insane amount of leverage, which only increases your risk, to make it even rationally feasible, if even possible.</p>
<p>Why is this important?  Well, the benchmark rate determines the contribution rates, both of members and the State Government.  This is only one of many elephants in the room in California that noone wants to talk about it.  At precisely the time when the state can least afford to spend even more money, it may be required to.  Which only makes the situation more dire.  State and local government employees in California (in many, but not all cases) already enjoy higher pay than their private enterprise counterparts.  In addition to that, they are afforded better health benefits, vacation packages, and generous pay packages and benefits upon retirement.  When the world has all but forgotten pensions, many state employees enjoy the grandaddy of them all, a<em> defined benefit pension plan</em>.</p>
<p>It even seems quaint to talk about it since few still understand the difference between the defined benefit and defined contribution pensions.  It will suffice to say that the defined benefit is almost always much, much better, and much, much more expensive.  It&#8217;s quaint because most people who are not state employees in California do not even have a significant 401K, much less a crappy pension.  This is nothing compared to the Cadillac pension plan that virtually ALL state employees get.</p>
<p>So, to sum it up, California faces a budget shortfall of epic proportions.  It has parlayed every non-GAAP accounting trick in the book to delay the day of reckoning, hoping that pink ponies save them, but they have not.  The bill is quickly coming due, and indeed, the state may have even more troubles.  There is no way out.  Without serious pension reform (hand their asses back to them), taxes will have to be raised.  Given that the state already recalled one governor over licensing fees, I see this one going over like a lead balloon.  Meg Whitman has been campaigning that she can fix this mess.  I&#8217;m sorry, but there is nothing that will fix that mess except for a miracle or much higher taxes.  This still will need to invent something seriously out of this world to make that happen, or bite down on the bullet of austerity to balance the budget and maybe put something away for a rainy day (if it gets any rainier, this place is going to figuratively float away).</p>
<p>We need another investment bubble.  Luckily, the goldrush of 1849 proves that there is significant gold in them thar hills.  Perhaps we can put a tax on pickaxes and heavy machinery that will help us cover some of the shortfall.  With the bubbly prices that gold is now fetching, it might just do the trick.  However, I wouldn&#8217;t expect the Marijuana tax proposed earlier to make a big dent.  We&#8217;d need some serious potheads to move here to make it work (and they&#8217;d have to be stinkin&#8217; rich to boot).</p>
<p>No, perhaps we we all need to collectively do as Californian&#8217;s is to do what CALPERS will in the end be forced to do.  Lower our expectations.  But, when have you ever known Californians to do that?</p>
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		<title>Optimistic on California &#8211; Even With All Its Warts</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/02/optimistic-on-california-even-with-all-its-warts.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/02/optimistic-on-california-even-with-all-its-warts.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Feb 2010 21:15:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=883</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I often get questions from others as to why I seem negative on California.  I&#8217;m not.  I have lived here for nearly a dozen years, and have loved living in many areas throughout the southland.  I believe strongly in the positives of the state.  I have had opportunities to leave and not taken them. However, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I often get questions from others as to why I seem negative on California.  I&#8217;m not.  I have lived here for nearly a dozen years, and have loved living in many areas throughout the southland.  I believe strongly in the positives of the state.  I have had opportunities to leave and not taken them.</p>
<p>However, focusing our entire energy on the positives means that we cane easily forget what we need to improve.  A great leader has the ability to both celebrate the successes while not forgetting the risks and failures.  One of the great potentials of this state is its ability to adapt; and many long-time readers know that I follow alternative energy very closely.  In particular, I love the ideas of small-scale energy production.  Not only because of personal independence, which I greatly favor, but mostly because so much waste and risk is created in large-scale generation and transmission.  Distributed energy grids mean that local generation can be more adaptive and reduce the possibility of large-scale outages (like during the California &#8220;brown-outs&#8221;) and grid cyber-attacks.</p>
<p>I see hope in California through emerging technologies.  Technologies that answer the problems of today.  If you haven&#8217;t yet heard of the &#8220;bloom box&#8221;, I recommend the below video.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/02/optimistic-on-california-even-with-all-its-warts.html"><em>Click here to view the embedded video.</em></a></p>
<p>Long-term California is a great place to be.  We only need to fix what is wrong with our present problems, and everyone can share in the prosperity together.</p>
<p>By staying current on emerging trends, you might also be able to increase your investments.  I know that my personal accounts more than doubled last year (2009) due to some timely purchases of energy-related investments.  Let&#8217;s all hope more come from our state.</p>
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		<title>Prop 13 and California&#8217;s Budget</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/02/prop-13-and-californias-budget.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/02/prop-13-and-californias-budget.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:36:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Housing Crash]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prop 13]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=880</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Proposition 13 was the &#8220;biggest tax revolt&#8221; in California&#8217;s history. KPBS San Diego did an interesting piece on raising taxes in California and Prop 13&#8242;s effect on this. Thirty-two years ago, Californians en masse went to the polls and approved the largest tax-limiting legislation in recent history.  Basically, it limited the property taxes that could [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Proposition 13 was the &#8220;biggest tax revolt&#8221; in California&#8217;s history.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.kpbs.org/news/2010/feb/23/impact-californias-biggest-tax-revolt/">KPBS San Diego did an interesting piece</a> on raising taxes in California and Prop 13&#8242;s effect on this.</p>
<p>Thirty-two years ago, Californians en masse went to the polls and approved the largest tax-limiting legislation in recent history.  Basically, it limited the property taxes that could be assigned to a property.</p>
<p>In response, many municipalities responded by building more hotels, retail, and more while limiting the amount of houses (municipalities earn more money from sales and occupancy taxes than on property tax).  This leaves the state perpetually building too few houses, and worse, restricting adaptive reuse of residential real estate into higher density because of the reassesment rules.</p>
<p>Personally, there are 3 major qualms I have with Prop 13.</p>
<p>1.  This is not a homestead exemption, so it does nothing to favor homeowners over landlords (who already have strong incentives through.  This is landlord welfare.</p>
<p>2.  Commercial properties are not exempted (they have a fixed base as well).  This is fundamentally flawed, since it favors property-owning companies who lease as their primary business.  This is corporate welfare.</p>
<p>3.  There is no means test.  Millionaires have the same exemptions as indigent elderly.  This is welfare for the rich.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, taxpayers were sold that little old ladies were getting kicked out of their homes.  While this is true, we could avoid the landlord, corporate, and rich welfare by instituting some changes to the original proposition.</p>
<p>Instead, we have serious imbalances because cities favor not building homes unless they have significant Mello-Roos attached to them, allow corporate transfer of assets to perpetually avoid reassesment, and allows non-citizens and non-tax payers of California to receive the benefits of everyone else&#8217;s pain.  How do you feel about prop 13?</p>
<p>The money shot for me?</p>
<blockquote><p>RAND (Caller, La Jolla): Thank you for taking my call and thanks for this discussion. I would just like to put two issues on the table. The main one is something that really shocks me, never comes up in these types of discussions, which is the distinction between commercial properties and homes. Of course, nobody wants homeowners to be taxed out of their homes but Prop 13 also holds down the property taxes paid by shopping malls, office buildings, all kinds of commercial properties. And they have a loophole that homeowners don’t have, which is that they can sell the holding company that owns the property and then someone else can take ownership of that property but, theoretically, it hasn’t changed hands, just the company has changed hands. And so there’s many commercial properties in the state that have not been reassessed for many years and they’re not paying the cost of the essential services that they need to stay in business. And I think that that aspect of Proposition 13 is very unfair and needs to be changed.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>America:  Freedom to Fascism</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/02/america-freedom-to-fascism.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/02/america-freedom-to-fascism.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Feb 2010 01:54:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/02/america-freedom-to-fascism.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><embed id=VideoPlayback src=http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docid=-1656880303867390173&#038;hl=en&#038;fs=true style=width:400px;height:326px allowFullScreen=true allowScriptAccess=always type=application/x-shockwave-flash> </embed></p>
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		<title>OT: Climategate Gets a little warmer!</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/02/ot-climategate-gets-a-little-warmer.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/02/ot-climategate-gets-a-little-warmer.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Feb 2010 21:48:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=877</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As if there weren&#8217;t enough disinformation about what&#8217;s really happening with the climate, we get the following, direct from the scientists who brought you global warming: The dog ate my homework: The academic at the centre of the ‘Climategate’ affair, whose raw data is crucial to the theory of climate change, has admitted that he [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As if there weren&#8217;t enough disinformation about what&#8217;s really happening with the climate, we get the following, <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250872/Climategate-U-turn-Astonishment-scientist-centre-global-warming-email-row-admits-data-organised.html">direct from the scientists who brought you global warming</a>:</p>
<p>The dog ate my homework:</p>
<blockquote><p>The academic at the centre of the ‘Climategate’ affair, whose raw data is crucial to the theory of climate change, has admitted that he has trouble ‘keeping track’ of the information.</p></blockquote>
<p>Yeah, but&#8230;</p>
<blockquote><p>Professor Jones also conceded the possibility that the world was warmer in medieval times than now – suggesting global warming may not be a man-made phenomenon.</p>
<p>And he said that for the past 15 years there has been no ‘statistically significant’ warming.</p></blockquote>
<p>At least we&#8217;re staying scientific:</p>
<blockquote><p>‘Of course, if the MWP was shown to be global in extent and as warm or warmer than today, then obviously the late 20th Century warmth would not be unprecedented. On the other hand, if the MWP was global, but was less warm than today, then the current warmth would be unprecedented.’</p></blockquote>
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		<title>1.1M off and still falling</title>
		<link>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/02/1-1m-off-and-still-falling.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.socalbubble.com/2010/02/1-1m-off-and-still-falling.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 18:46:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Ponzi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bubble]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ladera Ranch]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.socalbubble.com/?p=872</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Those of you who know Ladera Ranch, know that at the peak of the housing market, it was a cesspool of speculating flippers gone wild.  Some of the most egregious lending happened here with Negative Amortizing loans that are quickly imploding faster than any subprime loan could.  And the size of these loans is even [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Those of you who know Ladera Ranch, know that at the peak of the housing market, it was a cesspool of speculating flippers gone wild.  Some of the most egregious lending happened here with Negative Amortizing loans that are quickly imploding faster than any subprime loan could.  And the size of these loans is even bigger than subprime by multiples.</p>
<p>Ladera was carved out of some leftover parts of Mission Viejo abutted to San Juan Capistrano, and for the most part is searing hot in the summer with no views to speak of, has insane choked off traffic to get to the 5, or you endure ever-increasing tolls from &#8220;The Toll Road Company&#8221; whose stated objective is to siphon off as much of the local wealth as possible while crying foul and getting &#8220;Community Reinvestment&#8221; money from the Federal Government.  Good to see that even if the rich won&#8217;t support the toll roads, everyone else gets to with their taxes (without the benefit of actually using the roads.</p>
<p>Our subject today is <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Ladera-Ranch/40-Lewiston-Ct-92694/home/5862997">40 Lewiston Court, Ladera Ranch</a>, now for sale for $1.1M.  At the peak it sold for 2.2M, and is having a hard time finding a bottom.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s the beauty.  And, by the way, this is what 3% of 1.1M will get you in OC today:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/S601257_0.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-873" title="S601257_0" src="http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/S601257_0.jpg" alt="S601257_0" width="220" height="166" /></a></p>
<p>I guess Realtors here haven&#8217;t yet gotten the memo: the internet sells properties.</p>
<p>But, between you and me, the most interesting part is not the cesspool that your neighborhood is, but rather the cesspool that is in the back yard, lovely.  Mosquito abatement anyone?</p>
<p>Please, for the love of god, will some knifecatcher step up to the plate?</p>
<p>Edit: South OC tracker already featured this one.  <a href="http://www.southoctracker.com/2010/01/rain-rain-go-away.html">She gets around.</a></p>
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