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Gamblers and Whores Won, What Now?

Chuck Ponzi August 5th, 2008

Now that the housing bailout bill has been approved by congress and signed into law by the political pandering president, we have all agreed to accept the cold hard reality of covering someone else’s bad decisions and poor choices with our own hard work, sweat, and good choices. Indeed, it seems that excelling or even being of a marginally higher intellect than say, a brain slug is fit to be yoked and saddled with someone else’s mediocrity in this new era of America. It is the future of “no child left behind”, or as Brett Arends of the Wall Street Journal puts it, the Condo Flippers Do Over Act.

I remember a story that I read in grade school, Anthem by Ayn Rand. It was the first Ayn Rand book I ever read, and the only one I enjoyed. But, even in my youth, the message was chilling. The story was one of a man with extraordinary talent and physical prowess who lived in a society that believed in equality to an extreme. This society would place handicaps on those who could could see well, think better, or even walk better to the point that noone was better than anyone else in any way. Ironically, the main character I never in my life imagined that this kind of society would exist, much less under a republican president. However, it seems we have become this society:

Our name is Equality 7-2521, as it is written on the iron bracelet which all men wear on their left wrists with their names upon it. We are twenty-one years old. We are six feet tall, and this is a burden, for there are not many men who are six feet tall. Ever have the Teachers and the Leaders pointed to us and frowned and said: “There is evil in your bones, Equality 7-2521, for your body has grown beyond the bodies of your brothers.” But we cannot change our bones nor our body.

I have no flair for the dramatic, but I fear that we as a nation have allowed ourselves to become enslaved by our own political masters. We are therefore, destined for failure much more than if we had celebrated success AND failure as a means of building again something better. In our society, failure is only to include everyone, and everyone fails or succeeds together. It seems like only a little time ago that we were introducing “participation awards”, and now we are covering everyone’s losses. Except it seems that there is a conspiracy afoot.

I’m a died in the wool libertarian, but there is only so much nepotism that I can stand. I am disgusted beyond belief at what I see. What I see is that the only time that people are bailed out is when it affects big business. When the banks collectively went and did the stupidest stuff in the history of the world in the name of “financial innovation”, they get bailed out. When little investors went and did stupid stuff by buying dot coms… not a chance.

I’m mad as hell, but I don’t know what to do. In elections, I get to choose between a giant douche and a shit sandwich. Equally, everyone around me is too busy getting raped by the government to give a rat’s ass. The only thoughts that come to mind are treasonous and illegal, so I won’t write them down, but, I have to ask, at what point do politicians become responsible for their actions? Is it only when we get invaded and conquered do crimes against humanity get punished?

Unfortunately, with all of the absolutely stupid shite that happens in this country, I can’t think of a country where even more stupid shite happens, so there’s no escape. Maybe this is just what being middle class is all about. I’m too lucky to have the government wipe my butt for me, and I’m not lucky enough to not give a rip or find a way around paying for it. So, I’m stuck working for the government 50% of my income going to taxes and no say in the political process. Makes me want to stop paying taxes altogether. If I thought I could get away with it, I would.

I have to say, this housing bill, what a crock of absolute rubbish, and I’m ashamed to live in a country where politicians pander to everyone but their constituency. Everyone would be much better off if housing were cheap. Everyone complains when the prices of things rise… we call that inflation, but when it’s houses, it’s call an ownership society.

From the WSJ:

Anyone who invests in housing already gets a number of political subsidies. Your mortgage interest can be deducted from your income tax. Your capital gains, up to certain limits, can also be tax free. Taxpayers maintain the roads to and from your home. The new rescue package is just one more subsidy for the asset class of housing.

There was no rescue package for all those honest people who lost their savings in the dotcom crash. And there was no suggestion of any rescue package.

Meanwhile the majority Democratic party is agitating, with plenty of popular support, for a “windfall profits tax” on energy companies.

Such a tax, if it should pass, would by definition lower the returns from investment in oil and gas exploration. Inevitable consequence: Less investment in oil and gas exploration. But this is apparently an acceptable price to pay to ensure that…well, that investors in big energy companies don’t make too much money.

So, where does this all leave us?

Among the many ironies: The current economic crisis is largely the result of too much investment in housing, which led to a bubble and then a collapse, and too little investment in energy, leading to fuel shortages and skyrocketing prices. Yet the political class is acting, as far as I can see, to increase investment still further in housing and reduce investment in energy.

Where do our douche and shit sandwich stand on this?

Earthquake! 11:42 AM PDT

Chuck Ponzi July 29th, 2008

If you felt it, register it here on the USGS website.

Event number 14383980

Liquidity Trap!

Chuck Ponzi July 28th, 2008

For anyone interested in why interest rates on property are still going up, here’s a great chart courtesy of Paul Krugman’s Opinion column today:

I’m predicting whatever lift we saw this summer from decent rates (muting the crash underway), will disappear and the next leg down of prices will continue.  This dead cat bounce is dead!

I will be officially revising my 2008 Socal Real Estate estimates based on recent action.

Got Foreclosures?

Chuck Ponzi July 22nd, 2008

It’s no secret that almost every real estate blogger is talking about the unbelievable level of foreclosures. The mainstream media has latched on as well:

Foreclosures across the state surged to a 20-year high during the last three months, as tens of thousands of additional Californians lost their homes and more than 100,000 neared the brink.

Notices of default, the first step in foreclosure proceedings, rose nearly 125 percent from a year ago during the second quarter and trustee deeds recorded, which reflect the actual homes taken back, soared more than 260 percent, according to research firm DataQuick Information Systems.

But, this doesn’t even come close to telling the full story. Fact is, it isn’t the highest foreclosures in the last 20 years, which would imply that it was higher 21 years ago. Not so. In fact, these are the highest foreclosure statistics EVER.

Noone demonstrates that better than BubbleTracking in the update to the LA Times graph of foreclosures. Thanks OCRenter!

What’s noteworthy is the backstory to the image. The original LA Times article was somehow attempting to soothe buyers that the real estate market was healthy, in part because foreclosures were at historic lows.

Even more onerous than the picture above is another factoid of the story.

The number of defaults and foreclosures were the highest in DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1992 and 1988, respectively. Among homeowners who fall into default, an estimated 22 percent now emerge from the foreclosure process by catching up on their payments, refinancing or selling. That’s down from 52 percent a year ago.

That’s an incredible fact. In other words, 78 Percent of those entering the foreclosure process end up going through foreclosure. Considering that there is a record number of notice of defaults, we are ensuring years worth of upcoming foreclosures to push down prices. Recent report have showed that banks are swamped simply with the volume current in process and unable to expand to the need. Early in the bubble blogging world, more than 90% of those who received a notice of default were able to cure their delinquency due to quckly rising prices. Now, with prices falling 30% or more per year, one misstep is a lucky break for a would-be homeowner to simply walk away.

Remember, it’s a wonderful life

Chuck Ponzi July 15th, 2008

Even with all of the headlines out there, and with pretty much everything looking as black as it has been for a long time… we saw this coming, and we can see what’s on the other side.

It’s always blackest before the light. I don’t know exactly when the panic will end, but it always does, just like the euphoric mania that preceded it.

Great Minds Think Alike

Chuck Ponzi July 10th, 2008

Almost as fast as I suggested 3 days ago that nationalization of Fannie and Freddie was likely, it seems that everyone has jumped on the bandwagon despite assurances.

Will they be nationalized?

Does it matter?  Lending is changed forever.

Fannie and Freddie are going to have a threesome with Uncle Sam.  Dirty, ugly, and seemingly unavoidable after 2005.  It just had to happen, the whole world went mad with real estate.  This place seems so F@$&#D up.  I am now worried more about serious social unrest coming in parts of the US.  I’m pretty ticked off and I’ve got a lot, think about those who have lost jobs and have lots of time on their hands.  I’m just sayin’, I think lawmakers need to be careful when they start committing taxpayers’ money.  It is ours, after all.

An Inexact And Unscientific Price Study

Brad_Davidson July 8th, 2008

June Sales and Future Median Prices

You’re going to hear it here first. Data Quick will be coming out with their sales figures for June in the next week but I’m going to try and beat them to the punch each month. I don’t know how my numbers are going to measure up in comparison with Data Quick’s far more detailed studies but I’m going to give it a shot. What I think will be very interesting is using pending sales to try and predict future median prices.

Here goes!! According to the totals on the MLS website, June home sales in Orange County totaled 2,176 residential properties. These are mainly resale homes as the majority of new homes are not listed in the MLS. The median sales price of these homes was approximately $475,000.

According to the MLS, May sales totaled 2,135 properties with a median price of $480,000. According to Data Quick and as published in the OC Register, there were 2,266 sales and the median price was $485,000. Given the disparity in the total sales numbers, I’m content with the $5,000 price difference and if the June number is within $5,000 of $475,000 it’s all good.

I’ve always thought that the data provided on homes sales was of marginal value. I’ve long realized that the sales figures as published by the media are a lagging indicator. The 2,176 sales in June are deals that were negotiated in April and May, some I’m sure in March. In essence the median sales figures are two months old.

As of July 7, 2008 residential listings, categorized as pending sales or in back up offers total 4,183 properties. I’ve been tracking this number for the past few months and find it interesting that there are typically twice as many pending sales and back up offers as there are closed sales for the prior month.

A far more interesting number I’ve been tracking is the median list price of the homes categorized as pending or in back up offers.

I wanted to come up with a median sales figure that would be more current and perhaps be a better market gauge than numbers that were essentially two months old. I first tracked the list price of homes in pending sales on April 31, 2008. This is the unscientific part because I’m tracking the price the properties are listed at, not the sales price. While unscientific, my first set of numbers hold up remarkably well. The median listed price of pending sales and back up offers was $475,000 as of April 30, 2008. The same price as I show for closed sales for the month of June 2008!

While I have read that the median sales price number has ticked up a bit, it’s not what I see in pending sales. For the 4,183 pending sales as of July 7, 2008, the median list price is $439,000. If that number were to hold up when the actual sales figures for August are released in September, it would be a continuing slaughter for the OC real estate market. I think the median number will be higher because there are a lot of short sales and REO’s in the pending sales that actually sell for over the list price.

Then again, when I first ran these numbers in April and came up with the $475,000 median, data Quick had just released the March numbers showing a median of $506,000. $475,000 seemed pretty low then too.

I hear Orange County is looking for a new real estate oracle now that Gary Watts has publicly apologized for being wrong. I’ll track these number every month and report here and see how I do.

Brad Davidson
We Help-U-Buy Realty

Can You Say Systemic Risk?

Chuck Ponzi July 7th, 2008

Anyone who hasn’t seen the charts for Freddie Mac (FRE) should really take a look at them.  This is definitely a crash in the making.  As of this writing, FRE is down 22% today on news that FRE and FNM CDSs have widened 10BPS.  That is quite an increase.

FRE CRASH

The funny thing is, I remember less than a year ago, discussions about how Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were well capitalized, preeminently prepared for any disaster, and frankly, as unsinkable as the Titanic.  Little good that has done.  We may be witnessing a historic crash of epic proportions, greater by far than the crash we have seen to date.  To put it in perspective, FRE and FNM have pretty much been the only thing that have kept the real estate market together in the US over the past year.

Consider for a moment this statement regarding the mortgage insurance statistics from the GSEs.

There are more hard numbers available to support MI’s recent surge. MICA, the trade association representing the private mortgage insurance industry, began reporting rising volume monthly after February 2007. For example, mortgage insurers wrote 190 percent more business this year, through April, than in the comparable period of 2006, when subprime/Alt-A were in their heyday.

To put that sort of gain into proper context, consider that even GSE production is only up 160 percent — and they are doing an estimated 80 percent of all new mortgage lending. By inference, MI providers have made huge gains in market share.

Let that sink in for a moment:  GSEs are doing an estimated EIGHTY PERCENT of all mortgage lending, up 160 percent.  IN AN ACTIVELY FALLING MARKET.  Any implied “worst case scenario” imagined last year of the US government bailing out the grossly irresponsible GSE lending facilities is quickly not only becoming a reality, but would represent a necessity unless the entire lending business  in the US becomes STATE OWNED.

State owned lending?

Is that such a bad idea?  I mean, we pretty much have so many controls that we expend an enormous amount of government money in oversight, what’s so wrong with giving the federal government the right to nationalize the largest lenders as they fail?

I’ll write the next part only partially tongue in cheek.

Lending is perhaps one of the great debatable rights of Americans in the 21st century.  We have become so conditioned by its availability to believe that it is owed to us.  We need it, we want it, we should have it.  If we want to create our own financial ruin, and by extension the country’s entire financial ruin, we should be able to do so.  It is our right as Americans.  By this rationale, we should allow all Americans the right to open access to low-cost lending much like clean air, clean water, food and drugs free of harmful contaminants, and an interstate transportation system.

For example, if free enterprise were required to finance our transportation systems, we would be required to pay for every trip we consume on local and long-distance roads.  This is where economics has a hard time playing the role of moral coach, because, frankly, Economics is concerned with the free market and the most efficient method of delivering the utility people desire.  Governments have typically only concerned themselves with PUBLIC NEEDS.  Therefore, the big question is, is real estate lending a PUBLIC NEED?

I am certain that many could make the argument for and against, but perhaps the question needs to be viewed in a longer timeframe.  Is lending STABILITY more important as an ongoing public need to ensure the ability to liquidate lending and homes in an orderly manner?  What controls and insurances should the government provide?  How should the government handle lending standards and manipulation?  Could there be a cross-control against lying using collaboration with the IRS?  What kinds of manipulations would this open up the home lending business to?  Would the government “crowd out” any potential competitors and therefore stifle competition?  Has the current role of home lending harmed the public more than it has helped?

In any case, the general public perception is that home lenders have harmed America, and therefore must be harshly dealt with.  I don’t agree with that.  I personally believe that the problems is on its way to being fixed by the free market, and frankly I’m not happy with the directors of the GSEs getting away with fat pensions, stock options, and the like while the public swallows the bad debt.  On the other hand, it would end, once and for all, the deceptive practices and level the playing field by nationalizing lending.  Frankly put, the government could recapitalize easier than a private entity or a stock-owned entity.

I have to say that I oscillate between incensed outrage and cold acceptance of the reality.  There is no simple answer to that.  Lending has changed forever (hopefully).

What to do, Part Two

Chuck Ponzi July 2nd, 2008

Spending Saving InvestingIf you were reading the previous post, you know that I was helping out a reader with some advice about his home in Arizona and what to do. Tonight I’ll take on the opportunity of what to do with the funds he has available. My next article will tackle when to buy.

Keep in mind that this advice is free, and you get what you pay for. If I were in the same situation, my actions might be different from what I am currently doing simply because each person and situation (as well as timing) is different.

When we left our friend Boomer yesterday, I had advised him to sell his home in Arizona even though that wasn’t the question. There was no question that the house was overvalued based on normal valuation methods. In addition, rates have remained stubbornly high despite a strong easing campaign by the Federal Reserve Bank. To that point, just over 2 years ago, I wrote about interest rates and what that portended:

1. Why are rates going down over time?
2. Is there a savings glut?
3. Why are risk premiums (spread) so small?
4. Are we about the enter a recession like the other small spreads indicated?

To the last point, if we enter a recession, is there any chance that housing can be saved through inflation? Does this mean 70’s style stagflation, or even worse, Japanese style deflation with ZIRP?

If anyone can provide a coherent way that housing can survive in the next 2 years, please tell us now!

At this point, I think we are out of options from a monetary perspective.

1. We already have inflation. Dropping rates will make it much, much worse.
2. Economic growth is slowing despite the mad dash of construction.
3. The credit market is precariously spread and rates could make a mad dash upward if international investors get spooked and run for the exits. The only way to keep the Dollar from meltdown at this point will be to raise rates even more.
4. Housing speculators will be crushed by negative amortization and high interest rates in this event(which arguably should have already happened by now).
5. The sitting inventory will cause personal financial distress and combined with the mad dash of rates could generate a general credit system event.

Either way, we will be seeing a much more favorable buying environment for housing in 3 or more years due to the general stress and turning of investor sentiment.

The backdrop of investor sentiment is the worst that I can remember, insomuch that you have everyone talking about a financial armageddon:

Buffet Struggles

Todd Harrison is 100% Cash

and, don’t forget the fear du jour:

Oil climbs peak, economies plumb depressions and the future will not imitate the past

While I agree that the next 10 years will not look like the last, I do think that there are plenty of opportunities that can be entered into in the next 6 months.

First, I have a couple of predictions:

1. The DOW should hold somewhere between 10,000 and 10,500. If it breaks that support level, even I’ll admit I haven’t a clue where we’re headed there.

2. I do think we are headed for a U-shaped recession, but that we have entered that recession 6 months ago and that we should emerge sometime in the next 18 months.

3. Oil is a bubble, but like the housing bubble, it is unpredictable. But, whatever you do, do not listen to the experts. They are called the experts because it’s up. If it were down, they’d be called idiots like bubble bloggers were circa 2005.

So, what should Boomer do with his new tax-free windfall?

I am also not quite 50% cash now with some recent purchases, but I do have a major cash position. I won’t recommend specific stocks, but there are some areas that I will generally avoid:

1. Oil-centric energy stocks. This is really dangerous because we learned from previous energy shocks, the seeds of conservation are being planted now and will grow into the future. Oil could very easily crash.

2. Look for investments that provide a cheaper way of performing necessities, or some game-changing technology that reinvents its space in a necessity. (wouldn’t we all like to find them) while avoiding consumer-centric stocks (many of which have already been trounced)

3. Small caps that rely heavily on borrowing for operating expenses. Many of these are already having difficulty obtaining financing, or even maintaining revolving lines.

Personally, I have invested most heavily in individual biotechnology stocks that have previously crashed by have a strong pipeline. Pharmas and biotech are littered with the remains and half-eaten carcasses from failed drugs, but entering after a crash for a company with strong fundamentals can provide some cover for potential falls. Personally, I stay away from pharmas with “lifestyle” drugs such as ED treatments in favor of those with candidates for life extending treatments for cancer, heart disease, and alzheimer’s. With an aging boomer population, I believe that we can still see strong growth in these areas in an attempt to “fix” the medicare problem. The companies I look for are those that don’t just extend life, but prevent deterioration of mental and physical faculties as these will be.

Any way you look at it, even investing in CDs is going to provide a better return for the next 5 years than real estate.

Boomer, sell and find a good place to park that money. Find a few funds that you believe in, or do the research yourself. All of the easy money was made and now it’s down to the nitty gritty of investing… yield, growth, and preservation. Good luck

What to do? What to do?

Chuck Ponzi June 30th, 2008

Chile DesertI recently had a reader pose a question to me via email and I’d like to take some time from our normal programming to see what is on his mind

Our friend, let’s call him Boomer for short, had this to ask of me:

Moved my family to La Costa area (renting) and own a house in AZ which I owe $159k at 6.5% (it adjusted and will again in 8 months) The home was at peak worth $750k now $550k I had it rented last yr for $2200 and just signed a 3 yr lease w/ new tennant for $2,400 . I have $600k in cash..Should I pay this house off?? or should I just refi it and hold on to my cash to buy here in S cal in a yr or two?

First off, I have a couple of thoughts:

1. Whoever Boomer is, he’s in a pretty good position, relatively speaking

2. Without knowing his age, I’d say Boomer is likely Early Xer or Late Boomer.

3. The most important point of all (where he wants or needs to live) is missing from the question. Don’t feel bad, many people forget this little factoid. We’ll assume that he wants to stay in SoCal.

I’ll deal with some important points:

1. What is that house in Arizona really worth long-term?

2. What should Boomer do with the cash?

3. What kind of financing makes the most sense?

What is that house in AZ really worth?

This is the question that wasn’t really asked, but needs to be answered, what is the house in Arizona worth, so we can understand what to do with the money.

Well, Arizona is a big place. It has a varied geography with beautiful vistas, scorching deserts, and some bone chilling mountains. You may not like what I have to say, but I’ll say it anyway. Your perception of the world and finances is the boiled frog syndrome. Not that I blame you. You’ve been raised in a world of ever decreasing interest rates and increasing asset values. The world has been kind to you.

You see, the success of many of the past 30 years (primarily the boomer cohort) is a demographic abnormality. Asset values have increased simply because of the organic demand of the Baby Boomer generation and ever increasing ability to finance that demand. In addition to this, an extremely relaxed monetary policy has increased the value of assets consistently since inflation was trounced back in the late 70s.

Unfortunately for many, that time is over.

In the short run, houses are worth what someone else is willing to pay for it, but in the long run, they are subject to the value of the next best alternative, or substitute pricing. The best substitute for owning a house is renting one. In some cases (such as short-term living), renting is almost always the clear alternative.

There are many formulas for determining the value, but one of the simplest mechanisms is the GRM (Gross Rental Multiplier). Basically, this number is used to multiply the monthly rent to arrive at a fair estimate of rental value. However, this is only a rule of thumb and is not to be taken as gospel; lower interest rates (like I expect we will see for the forseeable future) will increase the GRM, while substitutes (buildable land, locus to employment centers) will decrease it. In certain premium places like Orange County, the upper stretch might be 220 or so, while in places like Las Vegas or Arizona, a more reasonable 120 to 160 is more in line with reality. If we err on the side of optimism (150 GRM), this places the current value based on long-term fundamentals at about $360,000, leaving Boomer with a $190,000 premium over its fair value. If I were evaluating a stock, I’d say SELL! SELL! SELL! Doubly more so if Boomer had lived in the house for more than 2 of the last 5 years since he can walk away with pretty much all of the money tax free. It doesn’t matter what the market is selling at, if there is really that much of a disparity, sell that house and get your money! (of course, it doesn’t help that it was just rented, but there are always ways to let a renter go, if the price is right). At a 229 GRM, his house is badly overpriced. When it was $750K, I haven’t a clue how someone could justify that, since it would have been a GRM of 340. Holy smokes!

The future good in some ways, but bleak in other. The Southwest is largely overbuilt in nearly every city with a real dearth of extensive employment opportunities (unless WalMart is your target), and if energy prices remain elevated (not a given in my mind), the ability to pay will deteriorate along with the economy. Boomer may end up with late (or no) payments from his rental. Rentals are generally difficult to manage from a long distance and I would only advise it if you were planning on returning back to the home at some date. However, that would be hard after living in LaCosta for a few years.

In addition, a house can be valued at the cost of money to purchase it. This is a bit more detailed, but an easy rule of thumb is to take the rental equivalent, figure in future increases in rent, and discount the cash flows based on current borrowing rates. It accomplishes about the same thing as GRM, but removes the variability of borrowing rates (especially if it is held as a long-term investment). Using the inverse calculation, you could figure what the “money rent” on the current place would be given a few variables such as the “current value” and current interest rates. Given a current value of $550,000, the money rent valuation using 7% says that Boomer should be collecting about $3,700 in rent on that money. This leaves out taxes, repairs, rental expenses, vacancy, and many other options, so it is by far the most optimistic. By this reckoning, the house would have an imputed value of $357K, pretty darn close to our above $360K value. Sounds like time to sell this puppy no matter how you look at it.

As another way of thinking of it, as interest rates go down, this increases the ability to pay, but that can only increase so much since the risk of buying on low interest rates and being unable to sell into a similar situation will weigh heavily on others’ minds and prices will need to adjust to handle this uncertainty. Since demand for housing is waning as the boomer generation ages in place or downsizes (or simply dies), it is unlikely that houses will be able to continue their rich valuation long into the future without a substantial demographic to replace them with the ability to purchase.

Any way you look at it, the house is currently valued at more than it is “worth”. I can show houses in Orange County that currently have better GRMs than what this house is showing, and Orange County is one of the most overpriced locales in the US.

Tomorrow, I’ll deal with the question of what Boomer should do with his cash. Any thoughts before then?

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